Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
654 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe thunderstorms will continue through this evening with
   the possibility for wind gusts up to 90 mph, hail up to
   softball size, localized flash flooding and tornadoes.

 - A Flood Watch is in effect this evening/tonight for the
   southeast Texas Panhandle and much of the Rolling Plains.

 - Daily storm chances, including a risk of severe weather and
   flash flooding, continue much of this week, with hotter
   temperatures by Friday and the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

An afternoon and evening of intense thunderstorms continues to be on
track favoring areas off the caprock. Starting aloft, the FA will be
split between areas of neutral height changes to the south and an
approaching short wave out of southeastern Colorado. This short wave
does not appear to be too impressive and will only result in minimal
height falls over the Texas Panhandle for the remainder of this
afternoon. At 250mb, a broad area of 70-80kt winds will extend
across a large area from eastern New Mexico through West and North
Texas. Therefore, we will not expect much in the way of large scale
ascent except perhaps for the southern Texas Panhandle. At the
surface, a short wave moving from Arizona into New Mexico will
generate cyclogenesis in southeastern New Mexico. Surface winds will
continue to veer to the southwest in the southwestern South Plains
into the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle as a dryline mixes
eastward. Winds elsewhere will remain either out of the south or
southeast as a weak warm front moves northward across the region.
Ongoing convection over the Rolling Plains may create some
squirrelly wind fields this afternoon in vicinity of the warm front.
As a result, we will see low level convergence along the advancing
dryline. By late afternoon, low level winds are expected to back
more to the southeast across the South Plains potentially increasing
this low level convergence. By 00Z, the cold front, currently
sitting up near the 37th parallel, will be on our doorstep in the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle. A mesoscale convective system is
expected to be ongoing at this time originating somewhere across the
northern Texas Panhandle or Oklahoma Panhandle. However, at the time
it moves into the FA, it will likely be indiscernible from a severe
thunderstorms outflow. This ongoing MCS is expected to increase in
coverage as it continues to move to the southeast, primarily over
the Rolling Plains. It is not entirely clear how far west on the
caprock this MCS will extend. The MCS is then expected to clear the
Rolling Plains late tonight or early Monday morning.

Low level theta-e values will continue to climb this afternoon
creating a broad area of increased values within the warm sector
east of the dryline. A significant bulge in the dryline, which
becomes obvious in the theta-e fields, is expected over the
southwestern South Plains into the central South Plains during this
time period. Based on model soundings for this afternoon, much of
the caprock looks to remain capped. The atmosphere becomes uncapped
close to the edge of the caprock by late afternoon. Surface dew
points will remain in extreme territory both off the caprock and in
the eastern South Plains pushing into the lower 70s. Very steep mid
level lapse rates combined with the strong low level moisture will
yield extreme instability values. Depending on your model of choice,
mixed layer instability could exceed 3500 J/kg with surface based
CAPE in excess of 5000 J/kg. Temperatures will be very warm with
values reaching into the mid and possibly upper 90s. Backing low
level winds in vicinity of the warm front will greatly increase the
low level turning and resulting helicity. Surface to 1km and 3km
look to exceed 100 and 300 off the caprock, respectively. Deep layer
shear will be strong with the strong winds aloft. Hodographs do
show some veer-back-veer profiles which may limit the supercell
intensity. Ultimately, the lack of large scale ascent will keep
afternoon convection relatively isolated. The main show is
expected to be the evening convection rolling out of the Texas
Panhandle likely creating damaging winds in excess of 80 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Following today and tonight's severe weather episode and cold
front, Monday will be relatively quiet in comparison. Low level
flow will turn to cool, easterly, upslope flow as a surface ridge
moves into the area. Some lingering warm air advection over the
cooler near surface air mass could garner some additional
thunderstorms during the morning hours on Monday, however, severe
chances will be extremely low. Mid and upper level flow will turn
more to the northwest as a rex block over the western US starts to
break down and move eastward. This pattern will promote
convection off the Sacramento Mountains up to the Raton Mesa in
the afternoon and arriving in West Texas during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The stormy/unsettled weather remains on track to continue into
much of this week. This will occur as the low-level moisture
remains entrenched over the region. The moisture will support
moderate instability to develop most/all days, despite high
temperatures remaining on the cool side of normal through much of
the week. The rich moisture will also support the potential for
efficient/heavy rain and the risk for flooding where storms occur.

Regarding the bigger picture, northwesterly flow aloft will kick off
the extended Monday evening/night. Convection that develops over the
higher terrain of northern NM during the afternoon may organize into
an MCS and accelerate southeastward, potentially rolling into the
western/southwest zones through the evening, as is suggested by some
of the CAMS. Strong/severe outflow winds and brief heavy rain would
be the greatest threats with this activity. Given this, have
included a severe mention over roughly the southwestern half of the
South Plains Monday evening.

The mid-upper flow will decrease after that as a slow-moving
shortwave trough gradually approaches via the Four Corners and
passes over the southern High Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Elevated convection will be possible early Tuesday, with more
widespread/robust activity becoming likely Tuesday evening/night as
the upper support improves. There will be sufficient instability and
enough wind shear for some storm organization and a risk of severe
convection, though the greater threat may be areas of heavy rain and
flooding. The slow-moving trough will linger nearby through
Thursday, keeping storm chances and a risk of heavy rain in the
region. Thereafter, ridging will gradually build in from the Desert
Southwest late week into the weekend, spelling decreasing storm
chances (though not zero) and climbing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Main concern is on storm impacts at the terminals through this
eveing. CDS is currently being affected by convection, with
additional storms upstream that will affect the terminal the next
few hours. Farther west, convection in eastern NM could affect PVW
and LBB later this evening, around and after 02Z. Have the
greatest confidence in PVW being impacted and included a TEMPO
group there. For now, have a VCTS remark for LBB, but will watch
closely and amend if needed. The activity this evening will bring
strong/severe/erratic winds to the terminals as well as the
potential for hail and brief torrential rain with limited
visibility. After this evening's activity, additional elevated
convection will be possible through Monday morning, though
coverage/location/timing is too uncertain to include in the TAFs
ATTM. Cooler northeasterly/easterly winds will spread across the
terminals behind a convectively enhanced front this evening. A
period of MVFR cigs is possible post-frontal late tonight into
Monday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-
044.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1116 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

TXZ021>044-091630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1116 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
through evening. The greatest chances are over the far southern
Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains although thunderstorm
development over the South Plains cannot be ruled out. Strong wind
gusts up to 90 mph, very large hail up to softball size, localized
flooding, and tornadoes can be expected with any severe thunderstorms
that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue this week. Light winds
aloft will be favorable for locally heavy rain and flooding at
times, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Some severe thunderstorms
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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