Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

617 
WGUS74 KLUB 230147
FFSLUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

TXC501-230157-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250423T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yoakum TX-
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL YOAKUM COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 10269 3312 10277 3317 10283 3321 10282
      3324 10283 3319 10261

$$

Lipe

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
655 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the
   forecast area this afternoon through late this evening, with
   some storms likely becoming severe.

 - Unsettled pattern continues through Monday with daily chances
   for thunderstorms (some severe) with beneficial rain.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the CWA, with most of the
storms anchored to the vicinity of the dryline, which remains
diffuse based on recent WTM data. A rightward-propagating supercell
was ongoing in Hall County, and generated a 63 mph wind gust at the
Lesley WTM site earlier. There have been several RFD-induced surges
associated with this supercell, and recent trends on RADAR have
indicated that this supercell is beginning to become dominated by
outflow. Farther southwest along the HWY-385 corridor, the mean
convective movement has been via an advective component compared to
propagation, as these cells remain very-high-based and anchored
along the dryline circulation, resulting in the north-northeastward
movement. The potential for a tornado is beginning to wane, as LCLs
remain high enough within the hotter air across the Caprock
Escarpment to maintain the production of outflow. The inflow-layer
cu field is widely spaced and has also exhibited small, turret-like
tops that become entrained by the drier air aloft, but inflow is
otherwise healthy at the surface based on recent WTM data, with
winds remaining backed to the south-southeast at around 15-20 mph
amidst lower-middle 50 degree dewpoints. The thinking is that the
cold pools will eventually merge across the Caprock and evolve into
a loosely-organized MCS, while the supercell in Hall County succumbs
to internal RFD surges and morphs upscale into an MCS as well. A
localized risk for wind-damage will accompany the MCS(s), with a
mean convective movement oriented to the southeast while Corfidi
upshear propagation vectors remain relatively aligned (e.g., less
than 20 degree separation). The best potential for back-building
would be in the far southeastern TX PH, while a more-forward
propagating component develops across the Caprock Escarpment as the
low-level jet begins to intensify. This should mitigate the risk for
widespread flash flooding, though it will remain localized.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The first focus this afternoon is convective initiation mid to late
afternoon. Surface dew points across most of the forecast area have
risen into the 50s with a somewhat diffuse dryline having set up
near the New Mexico state line. Mixing to the west of the dryline
has dried the boundary layer there with dew points in the 30s and
40s. A low level instability axis extends from just east of the
dryline, up the Highway 385 corridor to south of Dimmitt where it
bends northeastward into the Panhandle, although the best
instability (MLCAPE values likely near 1000-1500 J/kg) are located
near the southern end of that zone. Some terrain-induced cumulus had
begun to form toward the mouth of Palo Duro Canyon. Some hi-res
models show this area westward toward the surface trough closer to I-
27 as a potential initiation spot, but another perhaps more
significant area would be areas west of Lubbock along the dryline.
After initiation there is no significant change in thinking with
cold pools from the initial discrete cells likely helping form a
more mature MCS that then rolls eastward across the forecast area
this evening. Precip chances for tonight have been tailored to that
expectation.

The focus then shifts to tomorrow afternoon's thunderstorm
potential. Low level moisture should increase some over today's
values, but some warming aloft suggests CAPE near that of today.
Timing and location of initiation, however, is more muddled with
potential for lingering surface boundary(-ies) and lingering stratus
into afternoon hours possibly resulting in some areas of
differential heating. Similar to today, the cap will be weak to
nearly-nonexistent, and reaching convective temperatures should
result in some convective initiation, especially near any thermal
boundaries/gradients to add that little bit of push to get to the
LFC. Given the uncertainties will keep PoPs capped at about 40
percent in the pre-00Z time frame.

The remaining grid elements look fine from what was initiated by the
NBM with only some minor massaging at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Although unusual for April standards, we won't argue with the
extended pattern depicting a protracted period of unsettled
southwest flow with an open gulf through early next week. With
rather meager SW flow in the lower levels, the dryline shouldn't
stray too far from eastern NM until a pair of sharper upper troughs
kick across the southern Rockies by Mon and Tue and shove it closer
or even beyond I-27. Unfortunately, the finer details responsible
for precip chances remain a bit murky for Thu and Fri despite a
broad moist sector with PWATs of 120 to 150 percent of normal.
This lack of focused forcing along with subtle mid-level warming
casts doubt on rather generous PoPs Thu and Fri, but considering
the potential for lingering outflow boundaries and favorably moist
upslope flow these days we'll roll with generic PoPs for most
areas although not to the full extent of the bullish NBM.
Prospects for severe storms and even some heavy rainfall are valid
each day with the latter threat looking more credible by Friday
night into early Saturday provided a cold front washes out in/near
our CWA and receives added lift from the nocturnal LLJ. Suspect
the NAM and to a lesser degree the GFS are more accurate with the
earlier Friday FROPA timing, so blended in cooler temps on ENE
winds for much of the day with mostly cloudy skies and broad PoPs
by Friday night and Saturday.

Sunday shows stronger SW flow overspreading the area in response to
an upper low curling ENE and out of the Great Basin. This will
undoubtedly usher in bigger capping woes for storm chances, but feel
20 PoPs along/east of the dryline are worthwhile. This theme may not
change much for Monday as the dryline holds over the Caprock ahead
of a digging trough over the Desert Southwest that could spell
better PoPs after Monday as it kicks out across the southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Scattered thunderstorms west of KLBB and KPVW remain too limited
in area to keep a prevailing group at this time. A thunderstorm
complex northwest of KCDS has a good chance of reaching that
terminal and will keep a prevailing group there. Other issue this
TAF cycle is potential for stratus in the morning from sunrise to
noon mainly at KLBB and KPVW and have inserted a mention there.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE UPDATE...09
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

TXZ021>044-232015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 11 PM CDT this
evening for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far southern
Texas Panhandle.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop near the U.S. Highway 385
corridor after 4 PM this afternoon. These storms will then expand in
coverage as they move to the east through the evening hours. Some
severe storms are likely and will be capable of producing large hail
up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms, including severe weather, will
continue each afternoon from Wednesday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Hail             6 N Littlefield         34.01N 102.33W
04/22/2025  M1.00 Inch       Lamb               TX   Trained Spotter

            Hockley county storm team.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Hail             6 NNE Littlefield       34.01N 102.33W
04/22/2025  M1.00 Inch       Lamb               TX   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous hail report from 6 N
            Littlefield. Reported location was US385 and
            FM37 (Cofferville) Hockley county storm
            team.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
719 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     Hail             Plains                  33.19N 102.83W
04/22/2025  M1.75 Inch       Yoakum             TX   Public

            Public report relayed through local media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
742 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             Plains                  33.19N 102.83W
04/22/2025  M1.50 Inch       Yoakum             TX   Public

            Relayed via local media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
745 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Hail             2 S Fieldton            34.01N 102.22W
04/22/2025  E1.50 Inch       Lamb               TX   Public

            Report via X/twitter.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
749 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Hail             4 N Whitharral          33.80N 102.33W
04/22/2025  E1.00 Inch       Hockley            TX   Public

            Public report via Facebook. Time estimated
            via radar.

&&