Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
104 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
  central and northeast Missouri through mid-morning with damaging
  winds the primary threat.

- Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early
  evening, primarily across east-central and southeast Missouri
  and southwest and south-central Illinois. Large hail of 2+
  inches in diameter, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain
  the severe weather threats.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, mainly
 in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A loosely organized QLCS was located across extreme western AR
into SW MO early this morning. This convection was associated
with a shortwave trof just to it's west across the central and
southern Plains. The consensus of the short range guidance tracks
the QLCS northeastward and into central MO around 10-11z and
rapidly moves it to the northeast and out of the CWA by 14z or so
in a weakening and decaying state. Instability will increase in
central MO in advance of it and that suggests that it will have at
least some severe weather potential in central and northeast MO
before it weakens and outruns the instability. Damaging winds
would appear to be the main threat.

The impacts of this system and presence of any residual outflow
boundary are unclear at this time, but virtually all the guidance
suggests that airmass recovery will occur in it's wake and ahead of
the advancing cold front with SBCAPE of around 1500-2500 J/KG by
midday. Another upstream short wave trof will move into the CWA this
afternoon and the combo of it along with frontal forcing are
expected to initiate the next round of storms associated with the
afternoon severe weather threat. Once again the guidance is
reasonably clustered indicating CI will occur along the advancing
cold front in a zone from around Troy to Rolla in the 16-17z time
frame. Deep layer shear vectors are strong and have a more front
parallel component along the northern extent of the front and a bit
more orthogonal component farther south. The expected mode would be
semi-discrete supercells from far east-central MO eastward where it
could be a bit messy with mergers, and then potentially more
discrete storms heading further south into the Ozarks. The threat of
large hail seems high and probably the greatest severe weather
hazard follow by wind and then tornadoes. The tornado parameter
space is not as favorable as forecast 24-48H ago with most of the
guidance currently depicting 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 across
southwest/south-central IL and extreme east-central MO and southeast
MO. These values are supportive of a few tornadoes, especially with
strongly deviant storm motions, constructive mergers, and via
internal supercell processes. Note however they are a far cry from
the 0-1 km SRH values on 3/14 which ranged from 450-550 m2/s2.
Our thinking has changed little that SW/SC IL and SE MO have the
greatest threat of severe storms and tornado potential and this is
reflected in the adjusted position of the SPC DAY1 ENH centered
within that region. Present indications are the storms will have
exited the CWA by 23-00z.

Monday is still on track to be the coolest day of the week with
tranquil and drier conditions as post-frontal surface high pressure
moves into the MS Valley during the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Rising heights aloft Monday Night into early Tuesday and the
retreat of the surface high will allow for moderating temperatures
as a warm advection regime becomes established featuring low-
level SE-S flow.

Wednesday continues to look very interesting and the synoptic
pattern is coming together to support strong-severe thunderstorms
with both ample instability and strong deep layer shear indicated
in the plethora of available model guidance. A strong upper
low/trof will lift northeastward from the Rockies and into the
north-central Plains by 12z Wednesday and then into the upper MS
Valley by 00z Thursday. Strong cyclogenesis across the high Plains
of CO will occur on Tuesday with the cyclone tracking
northeastward in association with the aforementioned lifting upper
trof, and dragging a dryline/Pacific cold front into the CWA on
Wednesday afternoon. Poleward moisture transport Tuesday night
into Wednesday is impressive which results in notable SBCAPE
values by Wednesday morning across the CWA throughout the warm
sector; the conservative NBM is showing SBCAPE of 1000-1200 J/KG
at 18z. A strong southwesterly LLJ could also generate elevated
thunderstorms in advance of the main system on Tuesday night-
early Wednesday morning.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Have kept a tempo group for showers and thunderstorms in the St.
Louis metro terminals through 19Z. Any of the heavier showers or
thunderstorms could produce IFR ceilings and visibilities along
with hail and wind gusts over 35 knots. Then mainly dry weather is
expected the rest of the period with MVFR ceilings at UIN/JEF/COU
through 14-16Z before improving to VFR. There will also be a
period of VFR condition at the St. Louis area terminals this
afternoon before MVFR ceilings move into that airports tonight.
Westerly winds with gusts to 25 knots will turn to the northwest
tonight.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
351 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-310900-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
351 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of central
and northeast Missouri through mid-morning with damaging winds the
primary threat.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early evening,
primarily across east-central and southeast Missouri and southwest
and south-central Illinois. Large hail of 2+ inches in diameter,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain the severe weather
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms for parts of the area
Tuesday night through Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon.

Glass

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
234 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     Hail             Bonne Terre             37.92N 90.56W
03/30/2025  M1.00 Inch       St. Francois       MO   Trained Spotter

            Quarter sized hail in Bonne Terre.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
236 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Hail             2 E New Athens          38.32N 89.84W
03/30/2025  E1.50 Inch       St. Clair          IL   Trained Spotter

            Report east of New Athens.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
247 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     Hail             French Village          37.97N 90.39W
03/30/2025  E1.00 Inch       St. Francois       MO   Trained Spotter

            5 minutes of quarter sized hail falling in
            French Village.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
250 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Hail             2 ESE New Athens        38.31N 89.85W
03/30/2025  M1.50 Inch       St. Clair          IL   Public

            Slack post of ping pong ball sized hail.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
255 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Hail             Caledonia               37.76N 90.77W
03/30/2025  E1.00 Inch       Washington         MO   Trained Spotter

            Quarter or slightly larger sized hail in
            Caledonia.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
303 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     Hail             4 WNW Iuka              38.63N 88.86W
03/30/2025  E1.75 Inch       Marion             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Picture of estimated golf ball sized hail
            east of Salem.

&&

LSJ