Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS St. Louis, MO

993 
WWUS53 KLSX 182023
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
323 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

MOC093-221-182033-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-251018T2100Z/
Iron MO-Washington MO-
323 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN IRON 
COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT 
Saturday for portions of east central and southeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9064 3803 9054 3815 9045 3798 9016
      3767 9054 3764 9064 3764 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 217DEG 33KT 3770 9064

$$


MOC099-186-187-182100-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-251018T2100Z/
Jefferson MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Saint Francois MO-
323 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON, NORTHWESTERN SAINTE GENEVIEVE AND SAINT 
FRANCOIS COUNTIES...

At 323 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Park Hills, or 
near Desloge, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Farmington, Bonne Terre, Desloge, Bismarck, Leadwood, Park Hills, 
  Olympian Village, Iron Mountain Lake, Bloomsdale, Rocky Ridge, 
  Iron Mountain, Leadington, French Village, Valles Mill, Frankclay 
  and Doe Run.

This includes the following State Parks...
St. Joe State Park, St. Francois State Park and Missouri Mines 
Historic Site.

This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 154 and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9064 3803 9054 3815 9045 3798 9016
      3767 9054 3764 9064 3764 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 217DEG 33KT 3770 9064

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

235 
WWUS53 KLSX 182034
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
334 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

MOC099-186-187-182044-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-251018T2100Z/
Jefferson MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Saint Francois MO-
334 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
JEFFERSON, NORTHWESTERN SAINTE GENEVIEVE AND SAINT FRANCOIS 
COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, small hail, 
gusty winds, and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT 
Saturday for a portion of southeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9064 3803 9054 3815 9045 3798 9016
      3767 9054 3764 9064 3764 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 217DEG 33KT 3781 9053

$$

Elmore

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms continue this evening but exit to the
  east overnight as a cold front slides through from the
  northwest.

- Much cooler and drier air is expected for the coming week. In
  fact, there is the potential for some frost Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Our long awaited rainfall has finally arrived. Moisture surging
northward from the Gulf is interacting with a robust shortwave
trough exiting the Southern Plains producing widespread showers
and storms across southern Missouri and Illinois. The initial line
of storms that arrived late this morning are serving as an
effective northern boundary of the surface based instability, and
thus the severe weather potential, this evening. We believe the
severe weather threat decreases significantly to the north of this
line, and once this line exits our forecast area the severe
weather threat is largely over. However, as the shortwave
continues crossing the region, additional showers and elevated
storms continue to expand across the region this evening before
exiting eastward overnight. Most areas will see between 0.5 and
1.5 inches, but localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches, perhaps a bit
more, are possible in areas that get more persistent heavy
downpours from thunderstorms. With the recent dryness, we do not
expect any significant impacts on rivers, though if it falls fast
enough it could cause local flash flooding issues where storms
linger.

A cold front currently stretched from eastern Iowa to central
Oklahoma will push southeast tonight, shifting winds to the
northwest and advecting much drier air into the region. Dewpoints
fall from the 60s currently to the 30s by midday tomorrow. With
good mixing, temperatures warm into the 60s despite strong post
frontal advection. Those 60s will feel colder, though, after the
recent warmth and with the stiff northwest breeze. The surface
high associated with this air mass moves across the Mississippi
delta region tonight, so our winds decrease somewhat overnight,
but not enough for strong cooling. We'll largely fall into the
40s despite dewpoints lower than that.

Kimble

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Brief ridging aloft coincides with the surface high shifting east
and a return southwest flow in the low levels on Monday. That will
warm our temperatures up back into the 70s before the next front
crosses through Monday night into early Tuesday. The surface high
to our south will block moisture return ahead of this front, so
there are no significant rain chances despite the frontal passage.
This front is being driven by a trough moving through the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes, so it will have a cooler and even
drier air mass behind it. The surface high associated with it
moves out of the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday representing our coldest stretch of this forecast. If
conditions line up for a clear sky and light winds either Tuesday
night or Wednesday night then we could see widespread 30s for
lows. This represents our first real chance of frost this season.
NBM probability of 35 or colder temperatures has remained roughly
the same over the past few runs for Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning, but it has increased for Wednesday night/Thursday
morning. This is because there's a bit more uncertainty on which
night will have the better radiational cooling conditions. If the
surface high crosses our area during the day on Wednesday then
neither night will achieve peak cooling, but if it crosses
primarily on one of those two nights then temperatures will be
even a bit colder, closer to an actual freeze in the typical cold
spots. Urban areas will be substantially warmer.

As we go later in the week we'll see a return flow on the back
side of the high and ridging in the northern stream allowing for a
modest warm up. But a southern stream trough moving out of the
Southwest US and into the Plains will draw Gulf moisture northward
ahead of it and provide our next best chance for rain. Long range
models have struggled a bit on the timing of this wave, but this
variability has improved a bit. Just yesterday we were looking at
sometime between Thursday and the weekend for this wave's passage,
but now the time frame has centered more on Friday or perhaps into
Saturday. As a result, our NBM PoP has increased a bit during this
period and decreased on the other end reflecting the better timing
consensus. Based on the track of this wave largely to our south I
would expect more of a winter time setup with a synoptic driven
rainfall rather than a strong thunderstorm setup. Because of this,
rainfall amounts will be relatively light especially compared to
today's heavier amounts.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Line of storms has largely sunk south of metro St Louis, but a
stratiform rain region with embedded thunder is likely to continue
affecting most metro sites over the next few hours. There is the
potential for heavier rain and storms again in a couple of hours
as activity to the west arrives which could lower visibility a bit
further and continue the thunder threat through about 23Z or so.
It's possible that some lower ceilings develop after all this
rain, but much of this should be falling out of a mid level cloud
layer so ceilings remain mostly VFR. A cold front shifts winds to
the northwest overnight and beings to get gusty. This clears the
rain and clouds out but winds remain gusty on Sunday.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191145-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are forecast through
tonight across the area. A few storms could be strong to severe
this afternoon between 12 and 6 PM, mainly across parts of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Damaging winds and locally heavy
rain are the main threats, with a low chance of a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage, hail of any size,
and any flash flooding to the National Weather Service.

Gosselin