Wind Advisory 26, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1000 PM PST Thu Feb 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...27/738 PM.

Temperatures will be much cooler Friday through next week as a
series of storms moves over the region. There is a chance of
light rain at times this weekend and possibly a stronger storm
next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...27/959 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures soared today with widespread gusty offshore winds
over much of the region, and several records were broken with
widespread 80s from the Central Coast to coastal LA. Expecting a
significant change tomorrow as an upper level low approaches from
the west, bringing more clouds, cooler temperatures and a
potential for rain. Southeast winds look gusty over the interior
(30-40 mph) as the low approaches. Will need to monitor in case
wind advisories are needed but most likely stronger gusts will not
be widespread. Current forecast looks on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

Offshore flow and Santa Ana winds created warm temperatures across
coast and valleys today, though valleys were actually slightly
cooler than yesterday due to expected cold air advection
from the northeast. As the winds shift back to onshore this
afternoon temperatures will drop rapidly, especially near the
coast.

Then much cooler everywhere Friday as a cold upper low enters the
region. It's currently about 500 miles west of Pt Conception and
still drifting slowly south southeast. The currently favored
trajectory of the low based on the latest ensemble and hi res
model solutions is a bit farther south than the models had
indicated earlier in the week, shifting the best rain chances
Friday night into early Saturday to Orange and San Diego
Counties. Can't completely rule out some isolated showers across
the four county area but chances are mostly under 30%. And have
removed thunderstorm chances as there has been no history of
convection near the low so far and models are indicating less cold
air aloft as it moves close to the area.

A second system is expected to arrive Sunday. Based on the latest
models this one has a higher chance of dropping some rain across
the area, but still very light amounts, mostly under a quarter
inch, but locally a little higher across SLO County as there is
some instability with 500 mb temps down to around -30c there.
Currently no thunderstorms are in the forecast but could see those
being added later if the system holds together. Models continue to
indicate very strong west to northwest winds developing Sunday
afternoon and evening, very likely in the 30-45 mph range near
the coast.

As the storm moves through Sunday into Sunday night, snow levels
will be falling and could reach the Grapevine on Interstate 5
overnight. Likely very minimal accumulations but could be enough
to create some brief delays on the highway.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...27/212 PM.

There should be some drier period with less rain and mountain
snow sometime between Monday and Tuesday, but a cold air mass is
likely to remain in place. An offshore pattern could develop
during this period as wind gusts develop at KOXR and there is a
very low chance of a northerly wind event could develop early next
week.

By Tuesday night, the rain chances climb again and the third
system could the most significant of the three systems in terms of
precipitation. Precipitable water value means climb to about 0.70
inch in the latest EPS solutions. While a vast majority of the
forecast ensemble members have precipitation, the timing and
amounts are still in question. Confidence is high in rain and
mountain snow developing sometime during the middle part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0401Z.

At 2326Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was surface
based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 25 C.

Overall high confidence in the 00Z TAF Package, except for
moderate confidence in the Ventura and L.A. County coastal sites.
There is a 20-30 percent chance of MVFR conds along the Ventura
Coast, and a 30-40 percent chance of MVFR conds for the LA Coastal
sites from 10Z-18Z Fri.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a
30-40 percent chance that MVFR CIGs do not develop overnight. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds thru the
period.

&&

.MARINE...27/737 PM.

In the outer waters, seas will build to near Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels tonight and are expected to remain high periodically
through Mon night. SCA level NW winds are likely (70-80%) Sat
afternoon/eve thru Mon night. There is also a 30% chance of GALE
force winds during the aforementioned timeframe. The strongest
winds would likely be favored in our usual hot spots around Point
Conception, Northern Channel Islands, and down to San Nicolas
Island (PZZ676/673).

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, seas are expected to be at or
just below SCA levels Fri thru Sat. Higher confidence in seas at
or above SCA levels Sat night thru Mon night (70% chance). There
is a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts during the afternoon/eve
hours on Fri. There is a 60-70% chance of SCA level NW winds Sat
and Sun afternoon/eve.

In the inner water S of Pt. Conception, winds and seas should be
below SCA levels tonight thru Sat morning. SCA level W winds are
likely (70% chance) in the Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Mon, and in the
southern inner waters in the afternoon/eve hours Sun and Mon.
There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds during the
aforementioned timeframe.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Black/Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox