Wind Advisory 20, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
213 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/119 PM.

A significant storm system will bring periods of moderate to
heavy rain, strong winds and a chance of thunderstorms to the
area into tonight, followed by scattered showers Friday morning.
A warming and drying trend is expected over the weekend into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...13/207 PM.

A strong storm system is moving through the area this afternoon
and evening. While rainfall has slowed down across SLO County,
we're just entering the peak rain periods for southern areas from
Santa Barbara to LA Counties. Satellite imagery is showing the
back edge of the colder cloud tops moving out of Santa Barbara
County and into LA/Ventura Counties. However, there is also a
lower level tap of moisture that extends back through southern SLO
County that could still drop some moderate to heavy rain at
times. So timing and projected amounts and rates still more or
less on track. There have been isolated rates close to 0.75" per
hour and given the deep moisture tap still west of LA County,
there is still significant potential for very high rain rates,
possibly as high as 1" per hour, through this evening, especially
south of SLO County. By midnight, the heavier rain is expected to
be east of LA County, however scattered showers are possible at
least into Friday morning. Most likely areas for that would be the
Central Coast, mountains, and eastern LA County. Then some
scattered showers remaining in the mountains through Friday
afternoon.

Strong winds have developed across the mountains, Antelope Valley,
as well as SLO and northern Santa Barbara County. Expecting this
to continue through the evening before weakening overnight.

Snow levels on the soundings were over 8000 this morning and they
will remain this way through this evening before falling to around
5500-6000 feet later tonight into Friday.

Winds aloft shift quickly to the north Friday night into Saturday
with some gusty winds expected there as well as the Central Coast
and southwestern Santa Barbara County. Could see a little
upslope precip developing in the Grapevine region with rapidly
lowering snow levels. Can't rule out some light snow in that
area late Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise dry
weather with a warming trend Sunday with highs in the 60s to around
70 for coastal areas and low to mid 70s in the valleys. Some
increasing high clouds are expected Sunday from a storm to the
north bot no rain with it. Chilly nighttime temperatures expected
over the weekend with some cooler valleys dropping into the 30s
and even high 20s in far inland areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...13/213 PM.

Ensembles still indicating little to no chance of any additional
rain at least until the very end of February. High pressure over
the eastern Pacific will deflect all incoming systems well to the
north. High temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly
above normal through mid week. Possibly some gusty northerly winds
in the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County as forecast
LAX-BFL pressure gradients are from -5 to -8mb starting Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1747Z.

At 1652Z, there was nor marine layer or marine inversion at KLAX.
There was a deep moist layer up to 6000 feet.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. High confidence in rain
continuing at all sites through most of the period, and moderate
confidence in at least brief period of heavier rainfall. Low
confidence in in minimum flight cats and timing of category
changes. Flight cats will change rapidly, especially during
period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Gusty winds will impact all
TAF sites, with maximum wind gusts possibly being off by 10 kts at
times. Timing of wind changes may be off +/- 3 hours. For TAF
sites north of Point Conception, gusty southerly winds could
generate moderate LLWS and turbulence through this afternoon.

There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms for all sites, except for
KWJF and KPMD, through this evening. Any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing brief heavy rain with LIFR/VLIFR VSBYs and
gusty/erratic outflow winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF due to rapid changes in
flight cats and high uncertainty in minimum flight cat. During
heavy downpours, VLIFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are possible. 30%
chance of thunderstorms between 23Z and 05Z, possibly as late as
08Z. Gusty/erratic outflow winds and VLIFR conditions are likely
during thunderstorms. Southerly winds with gusts up to 25 knots
are likely through 06Z before winds turn westerly. This wind shift
could occur as early as 03Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
moderate to locally heavy rain through this evening with MVFR to
LIFR CIGs/VSBYs, but low confidence in timing of flight category
changes. There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms 23Z-05Z, possibly
lingering as late as 08Z. Gusty/erratic outflow winds and VLIFR
conditions would be likely during thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...13/151 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue for
much of the time through Saturday, along with high seas, creating
hazardous conditions. For Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, there
is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For this afternoon through
Saturday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and
seas. For Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA
level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. High confidence
that Tuesday will remain sub advisory.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in SCA level south to southeast winds continuing into late tonight
before dropping below advisory levels. There is a 40-50% chance
for seas to reach SCA levels late tonight in the Santa Barbara
Channel. Otherwise, seas will be near or above SCA Friday through
Saturday. On Friday, SCA level westerly winds are likely in the
afternoon and evening hours (70-80% chance). For Saturday through
Tuesday, winds and seas are generally expected to remain below SCA
levels, although there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the
late afternoon and evening hours on Sunday and Monday.

There is the possibility of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters through late tonight. Any thunderstorms would likely
produce brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty and erratic
winds, rough seas and possibly even waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...13/139 PM.

A large, long period, westerly swell is making its way into the
coastal waters and will continue through Saturday. This will
bring high surf conditions to west and northwest facing beaches
through Saturday. North of Point Conception, surf heights will
peak in the 12-18 foot range on Friday with local sets to 20 feet.
South of Point Conception, surf heights will peak in the 6 to 10
foot range on Friday with local sets up to 14 feet. With the
morning high tides Friday and Saturday, some minor flooding of
low-lying areas will be possible.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 38-346>352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flash Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for
      zones 88-355-358-362-366>375-377>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Flood Watch now in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
      zones 340>345. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Wind Warning now in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 340>345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM PST this evening for
      zones 348-353. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM
      PST Saturday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 AM PST Friday for
      zones 376>382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM PST Friday for
      zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PST tonight for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
BEACHES...RAT/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox