Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1010 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...11/954 AM.

Another round of gusty northeast winds is arriving today and will
continue through Sunday morning, then a stronger offshore wind
event will likely develop between Monday night and Wednesday. Cold
overnight temperatures are expected in wind protected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...11/1009 AM.

***UPDATE***

Santa Ana winds are increasing again as another upper low passes
through the Great Basin. Winds in most areas are still under 25
mph but there are pockets of stronger winds, including unfortunately
in the Palisades fire area between Topanga and Malibu Canyons.
Winds expected to slowly ramp up through the day, peaking tonight
into early Sunday morning. Winds have also developed across the
Santa Lucias, some of which are filtering down to the coastal
areas around Morro Bay.

***From Previous Discussion***

In wind-sheltered locations, clear skies and light winds will
allow for radiative cooling processes overnight to be more
efficient. A stretch of cold overnight low temperatures is
expected in the wind-sheltered areas and across the interior
valleys for the next several nights. A frost advisory has been
issued for the Ojai Valley for early Sunday morning, but even
colder temperatures are forecast for Sunday night and Monday
morning as the winds weaken across the area. Frost and headlines
will likely be needed for a larger area, including the Central
Coast, the Santa Barbara South Coast, the Ventura County Valleys,
and possibly the western San Fernando Valley. While the interior
valleys and the Santa Ynez Valley have had several freezes
previously, overnight low temperatures dipping into the teens may
necessitate the rare additional issuances of freeze warning due to
the potential for pipes freezing in the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/532 AM.

Offshore flow will reestablish across the region between Monday
night and Tuesday. Another potential offshore wind event is
shaping up early next week as an inside slider trough moves south
on the leading edge of the ridge of high pressure across the
region. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with the
pattern, the forecast ensembles favor another offshore wind event
developing between Monday and Wednesday. EPS ensemble members are
starting to lean distinguish a multi-day offshore flow event
developing across the region. EPS ensemble wind gust means remain
near 50 mph for KOXR, KCMA, and K3A6, which would be indicative
of a Santa Ana wind event. SREF and GEFS ensemble surface pressure
gradient means suggest a moderate offshore flow developing on
between Monday and Monday night. NAM40 solutions suggest KLAX-
KDAG surface pressure gradients tightening to near -8.6 mb on
Tuesday morning. Ensemble means and deterministic solutions agree
the tightest pressure gradients fall around Tuesday morning. A
moderate to strong offshore flow event still looks on tap for
early next week, developing sometime between Monday and Monday
night and lingering into Wednesday.

The latest ensemble members suggest a chance for rain later in
the week, but the ensembles favor the insider trough moving too
far offshore to produce any rainfall. An upper-level trough will
cutoff and split away from the southern California Coast. While
the trough originates from a drier region, there is a still a
small chance that the trough could entrain some Pacific moisture
as the trough retrogrades off the coast. NBM solutions favor a
slight wetter pattern, but all of the EPS, CMC, and GEFS ensemble
members favor a dry solution.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1751Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of
the inversion was at 2700 ft with a temp of 13 deg C.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs. There is a minor chance
at times of MVFR smoke conds at Los Angeles County coastal
terminals thru 20Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conds at all airfields
thru the forecast period.

KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20%
chance that smoke will cause vsbys of 4-5SM FU and/or a bkn025
smoke layer thru 20Z. There is a 30% chance of an east wind
component of 7-9 kt thru 20Z. There is a 10%-20% chance of N
crosswinds of 15-20 kt 03Z-15Z Sun.

KBUR...There is a 20% of NE winds gusts to 25 kt or greater from
19Z-00Z, and a 30% chance of NW wind gusts to 30 kt or greater
10Z-15Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...11/847 AM.

Across the waters outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds
are likely (70-80%) much of the time thru Sun morning. There is a
30% chance that SCA level seas will persist thru Mon or Mon
night, mainly in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). SCA level
NE winds are likely (70% chance) across the southern zones
(PZZ676) at times Mon night thru Wed morning, and there is a 30%
chance that this will occur in the northern zones (PZZ670/673).

In the northern inner waters zone, there is a 30% chance of SCA
level winds late tonight/Sun morning, and during the morning hours
Tue and Wed. There is a 30% chance of SCA level seas tonight/Sun.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, from Ventura to eastern Santa Cruz
Island southward, there is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds this
afternoon thru late tonight, then SCA level NE winds are likely
(60% chance) late tonight thru early Sun afternoon. There is a 40%
chance of SCA level NE winds Mon afternoon/Mon night, mainly
eastern portions. SCA level NE winds are likely (60% chance) Tue
morning, and late Tue night/Wed morning, especially in eastern
portions. There is a 20% chance of GALE force winds in eastern
sections late Mon night thru Wed morning.

In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are likely (70% chance)
from Malibu to Santa Monica and out to Anacapa Island this
afternoon thru early Sun afternoon. There is a 40%-50% chance of
SCA level winds in the San Pedro channel and out to Avalon Harbor
late tonight/Sun morning. SCA level NE winds are likely (70%
chance) Mon night thru Wed morning, especially from Malibu to
Santa Monica and out to Anacapa Island, and thru the San Pedro
Channel out to Avalon Harbor. There is a 30% chance of GALE force
winds late Mon night thru Wed morning.

&&

.BEACHES...11/848 AM.

A moderate west-northwest swell will continue to affect our area
bringing high surf to west facing beaches along the Central Coast
(8 to 12 feet) and Ventura County (4 to 7 feet). Rip current risk
will be high. High confidence that any coastal flooding will be
very minor, but cannot rule out some nuisance water over normally
dry sandy beach areas during morning high tides.

After surf drops below advisory thresholds late today, a longer
period west-northwest swell will arrive in the waters on Monday,
likely (70% chance) bringing another round of advisory-level high
surf to the Central Coast and Ventura County through late
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...11/939 AM.

Significant Fire Weather concerns continue today with gusty north
to northeast winds 25 to 45 mph increasing tonight and lingering
into Sunday morning when gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common for
the Santa Ana corridor in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Local
gusts of 50 to 70 mph are possible in some mountains. A Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect this evening through Sunday
afternoon. While a brief reprieve from the winds are expected
Sunday Night, they will form again Monday through Wednesday, with
a peak around Tuesday of gusts between 40 and 60 mph. With
humidities plummeting to 5 to 15 percent, there is a high risk for
Red Flag Warnings during this time period. Low to moderate
confidence in relief forming by Thursday with a 20 percent of
light rain with higher chances for improving humidities and light
winds for the end of next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 88-358-362-370>374-376-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10
      AM PST Sunday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to noon
      PST Sunday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Sunday for zone
      355. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Frost Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 10 AM PST
      Sunday for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 369-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      2 PM PST Sunday for zones 369-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from 6 PM PST this evening
      through Sunday afternoon for zones
      288-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 2 PM PST Sunday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Sunday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Hall
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...DB/Sirard
BEACHES...Smith/Schoenfeld/Sirard
FIRE...Munroe/Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox