High Wind Warning 12, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1125 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/715 PM.

A strong storm will move across the area tonight with periods of
heavy rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. Thursday will continue
to be unsettled with periodic showers, a chance of thunderstorms, periods
of heavy rain and lower elevation snow, but with some sunny
breaks as well. Light showers expected Friday then dry and warmer
over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...12/835 PM.

***UPDATE***

The warm front did not really live up to advanced billing with
most of the area seeing mostly dry conditions. The foothills and
coastal slopes saw a little more rain. Over all about a tenth of
an inch fell across the flatter portions of the csts/vlys and a
third to locally 2 thirds of an inch across the coastal slopes of
VTA and SBA counties. Max temps were about 12 degrees under
normals today with cst/vly temps coming in a few degrees either
side of 60.

The main front is over the Central Coast and is living up to
expectations with heavy rainfall, waterspouts, downbursts and
strong straight line winds. No lightning has been observed yet,
but TSTMs are a possibility with this front as well.

Frontal timing by way of the latest HRRR shows it over SBA city
between 9 and 10pm, VTA county between 1030pm and 200am and LA
county between 200am and 600am.

Satellite shows plenty of convection under the upper low to the
west of SLO county and this bodes well for scattered convection
tomorrow.

Forecast was massaged with rain chances and clouds.

***From Previous Discussion***

This storm will pack quite a wallop despite it's short duration
as a strong southerly low level jet will interact with a narrow
but potent frontal band with PW's projected to be close to 1.2".
So the necessary ingredients will be in place to generate a 3 to 6
hour period of very heavy rain tonight, especially near and on
the south facing mountain slopes from Santa Barbara to LA County.
Hi res ensembles have been consistent showing a 60-80% chance of
rain rates reaching a half inch per hour somewhere in those
upslope areas and a 10-20% chance of hourly rates close to an inch
per hour. Sub-hourly rain rates may be just as or perhaps even
more important to monitor as it's likely those will be exceeded as
well. Strong winds at times are expected, especially interior SLO
County.

Thunderstorms are possible as well, though the best chances for
those will likely be following the frontal passage Thursday as the
colder and more unstable air moves in. PW's drop about 50% during
this phase of the storm but with the colder and more unstable air
present periods of very heavy rain, along with small hail, gusty
winds, and possibly even a waterspout or small tornado are all
possible through the day so the threat of flooding and debris
flows will continue through at least Thursday afternoon.

Snow levels will stay at or above 6000 feet for most of the night
but then will fall rapidly Thursday down to around 3000 feet.
There may be some light accumulations on some of the lower
mountain passes including the Grapevine on Interstate 5, highway
14 and 33, as well as possibly Highway 154 over San Marcos Pass,
and some of the Santa Lucias. Up to 1 to 2 feet of snow expected
above 6000 feet with lighter amounts below that.

Showers are expected to decrease late in the day and evening
Thursday. However, another area of showers is expected to move
through Friday into early Saturday. Additional amounts are
expected to from around a half inch north of Pt Conception to
around a quarter inch or less south.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/211 PM.

A weak high pressure ridge will bring a return to dry and warmer
weather late Saturday into Sunday. Another system will arrive late
Sunday night into Monday with another round of mostly light
showers with little to no impacts. Still some uncertainty with
this one as some of the ensemble solutions keep most of the
precipitation north of Pt Conception. The rest of the week looks
dry and slightly warmer. Some gusty northerly winds possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, with small chances of a weak Santa Ana.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0623Z.

At 0515Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low confidence in TAFs through 20Z then moderate confidence.

A front will work its way through the area overnight. Cigs and Vis
will vary frequently as the rain goes through periods of
intensification. MVFR conds will be most common but IFR conds are
likely under heavier rain showers. VFR conds are likely after 20Z
but there will be ocnl MVFR conds as showers pass overhead.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms for all sites through
00Z. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of brief
heavy rain, small hail, gusty and erratic winds and frequent
lightning.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z then moderate confidence.
Cigs and vis will vary frequently as the front moves into and over
the airfield. VFR conds are likely after 20Z but with ocnl
BKN015-025 conds with -SHRA 20Z-00Z. The switch to west winds may
occur as late a 14Z. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms
through the period.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z then moderate confidence.
Cigs and vis will vary frequently as the front moves into and over
the airfield. VFR conds are likely after 20Z but with ocnl
BKN015-025 conds with -SHRA 20Z-00Z. There is a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms through the period.

&&

.MARINE...12/800 PM.

Hazardous sea conditions will continue through Friday. Stay in
safe harbor. Wait for the weekend with improved conditions.

Very confused seas will continue through Thursday, with both
long period northwest to west swell and short period southwest
swell along with southerly wind waves.

A moderate to strong cold front currently moving into the western
Santa Barbara channel will move through the area from through the
rest of the waters overnight. overnight hours. All areas will see
at least a few hours of high end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
south winds today, with low end Gale Force winds expected north
of Point Conception. For the waters south of Point Conception,
there is a 40-50% chance of brief Gale Force winds as the front
passes through the region, but winds will be localized and short
lived, thus a Gale Warning will not be issued at the moment. Rain
will be heavy at times, with a chance of thunderstorms (through
Thursday afternoon) and associated hazards like locally strong
winds, lightning, and waterspouts.

Post-frontal west to northwest winds will quickly form tonight
into Thursday, with a 40-60% chance of reaching Gale Force south
of Point Conception. Best chances in zones PZZ650/655 especially
for the nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica, and the
San Pedro Channel.

Another storm will move through the area on Friday, with another
round of gusty south winds and post frontal west to northwest
winds. Winds should be weaker than today/Thursday, but SCA-levels
are likely over most waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for
      zones 87-88-349>352-354>358-362-366>375-378>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Friday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 2 AM PDT Thursday
      for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 369-370-375-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Thursday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from 11 AM PDT Thursday through Thursday
      evening for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1123 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Los Osos            35.32N 120.83W
03/12/2025  M58 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW2489 Los Osos.

0530 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 NE Agua Dulce         34.57N 118.27W
03/12/2025  M66 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE444 Sierra Pelona West
            (SCE).

0550 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 SSE Acton             34.38N 118.15W
03/12/2025  M58 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 546SE Mesa Vincent 2.

0950 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Acton             34.50N 118.10W
03/12/2025  M63 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 756SE Sce Rough Road.

1010 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ESE Acton             34.43N 118.10W
03/12/2025  M62 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 547SE Wolfie (SCE).

1010 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 8 S Agua Dulce          34.39N 118.34W
03/12/2025  M70 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE678 Magic Mtn Truck Trl
            (SCE).

1020 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 ESE Acton             34.42N 118.09W
03/12/2025  M62 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 555SE N3 Highway (SCE).

1030 PM     High Sust Winds  4 N Chatsworth          34.32N 118.58W
03/12/2025  M40 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE079 Oat Mountain (SCE).

1059 PM     High Sust Winds  2 SSE Lake Hughes       34.64N 118.41W
03/12/2025  M40 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GMTC1 Grass Mountain RAWS.

&&

Hall

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
1226 AM PDT Thu Mar 13 2025

CAZ354-355-358-369-374-375-130815-
Ventura County Beaches CA-Central Ventura County Valleys CA-
Santa Susana Mountains CA-Southeastern Ventura County Valleys CA-
Ventura County Inland Coast CA-
Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area CA-
1226 AM PDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN VENTURA COUNTY
THROUGH 115 AM PDT...

At 1225 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ventura Harbor to 8 miles southeast of
Anacapa Island. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail. Doppler radar
         indicates some weak rotation with this activity, while not
         immediately likely, a brief small weak tornado may still
         occur.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Paula...
Point Mugu State Park...
Naval Base Ventura County...
Oxnard...
Camarillo...
Ventura...
Port Hueneme...
Silver Strand Beach...
El Rio...
Somis...
Ventura Harbor...
and Newbury Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 11909 3410 11912 3414 11919 3414 11922
      3417 11923 3417 11924 3419 11924 3423 11927
      3425 11926 3430 11934 3440 11897 3407 11900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 241DEG 13KT 3426 11932 3391 11933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Lewis/Cohen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1237 AM PDT Thu Mar 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     Flood            1 S Montecito           34.42N 119.63W
03/13/2025                   Santa Barbara      CA   Law Enforcement

            Roadway flooding on Highway 101 near
            Sheffield.

&&

Hall

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