Gale Warning 7, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1039 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/720 PM.

A series of Pacific storm systems will move over the region
through Friday, with occasional drizzle or light rain through
Thursday. The next storm will bring more rain to the area Thursday
night into Friday. Dry weather is expected over the weekend into
early next week with below normal temperatures. Another storm is
expected around the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...05/813 PM.

***UPDATE***

Following the first storm system that moved over the area today,
Southwest California remains in a moist, southerly flow. Rainfall
totals over the past 24+ hours ranged from 1 to 3 inches across
much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, except 3 to 5
inches across the SLO Coastal foothills (Rocky Butte coming in the
highest). For Ventura County, peak values across the the interior
valleys and mountains were between 1.0 to 1.5 inches, with peak
values of 0.5 to 1 inch in the Los Angeles County mountains,
including the Santa Monicas.

Through this evening, patchy light rain or drizzle can be expected
at times. Rain chances will increase throughout the area after
midnight into Thursday, but with only light accumulations under
0.25 inch for most areas. The exception will be northwest San Luis
Obispo County, where the coastal hills will see rain chances and
amounts increasing Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Rain
will then spread from northwest to southeast across the area
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Total additional rain
amounts will be generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch for coasts and valleys
and 1-2 inches in the mountains, except 2-3 inches in the Santa
Lucia and Santa Ynez mountains.

Winds will remain southerly and mainly light through the overnight
hours, but will begin increasing after sunrise and through the
afternoon. Widespread gusts to 30 mph are expected across areas
north of Point Conception, and up to 35 mph over the interior
mountains of SLO County. Over the Antelope Valley and adjacent
foothills, gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common by the afternoon
hours.

***From Previous Discussion***

The second system of the week is approaching 130w this afternoon
and will reach the Central Coast around between 10 and 2 2pm
Thursday. This storm has a peak IVT value of around 500 around SLO
County which is right on the border between a weak to moderate
AR. And as with the last system that IVT value drops rapidly
moving south to around 250 in LA, which is at best a weak AR.
These are very similar numbers as the first system and ensemble
solutions and high res models are indicating similar rain rain
rates overall, mainly under a quarter inch per hour except up to a
half inch in the mountains of SLO/SB Counties. The main
difference is the system moves through a little faster based on
the latest model so the duration of rain should not be quite as
long, especially along the Central Coast. So overall amounts
should be more uniform across the 4 county area, mainly under one
inch most areas, except 2-3" in the mountains. And once again
little to no snow with snow levels mostly above 8000 feet. Overall
a beneficial rain for most areas with minimal impacts. Some wind
is expected with the storm Thursday and Thursday night, especially
in SLO County, but southerly gradients are 2-4mb weaker than
yesterday winds should be slightly weaker.

Rain is expected to taper off early Friday morning along the
Central Coast and later in the afternoon for LA County.

Sunshine returns Saturday but temperatures 3-6 degrees below
normal. Likely some gusty northerly winds in the mountains.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...05/219 PM.

Dry, northwest flow dominates the weather pattern Sunday through
Tuesday with some locally gusty winds at times in the mountains
and along the Central Coast. Very little change in temperatures
from the weekend with highs in the low 60s and some sub-freezing
overnight temperatures across the colder valleys, especially
interior SLO County and the Antelope Valley.

The next storm system is expected to arrive Wednesday and
continue into Thursday and does have AR characteristics. Ensemble
solutions are exhibiting typical back and forth rain amounts from
run to run but the ensemble means are very similar to the storms
this week. One thing to monitor is there is a higher percentage of
solutions showing rain totals over 3 inches, and even a few over
5 inches, even in LA County. So there is a higher ceiling with
next week's storm. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0506Z.

At 0219Z at KLAX, there was a 7000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in the current forecast. Predominantly IFR to
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in rain and mist will continue
from the beaches to the coastal ranges. There is a high chance of
IFR to MVFR conditions after 03Z, with a 20% chance for LIFR
conditions.

KLAX...Predominantly IFR to MVFR conditions in rain expected
tonight. There is a 60 percent chance of easterly winds between 7
and 10 knots through mid-afternoon.

KBUR...Predominantly IFR to MVFR conditions in rain and mist
expected tonight. There is a 30 percent chance of conditions
briefly lowering in showers.

&&

.MARINE...05/1038 PM.

High confidence in the forecast through early Thursday, then
moderate confidence thereafter.

For the waters from Point Conception and north, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds look likely by Thursday morning. There
is a 40% chance for gale force winds into early Thursday night,
and a Gale Watch may be issued for this time. Winds will weaken
overnight Friday, shifting to the northwest behind the frontal
system. There is a 30-40 percent chance of gales through the
weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below SCA levels through Thursday morning, and then there
is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA level southerly winds late
Thursday afternoon to Thursday night and again Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Phillips/Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox