Wind Advisory 3, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

706 
WWUS73 KLMK 140835
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
435 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-142100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.250314T2100Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-
Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-
Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Bowling Green, Harrodsburg, Lawrenceburg,
Shepherdsville, Bedford, Versailles, Glasgow, Carlisle, New
Albany, Lancaster, Morgantown, Columbia, Tompkinsville, La
Grange, Providence, Richmond, Louisville, Madison, Cynthiana,
Jasper, Lewisport, Elizabethtown, Hawesville, New Castle,
Campbellsville, Hardinsburg, Leitchfield, Edmonton, Lexington,
Taylorsville, Greensburg, Tell City, Milton, Bardstown,
Scottsville, Hodgenville, Shelbyville, Springfield, Hartford,
English, Danville, Winchester, Jeffersonville, Scottsburg,
Corydon, Paris, Liberty, Franklin, Jamestown, Salem, Horse Cave,
Frankfort, Burkesville, Nicholasville, Brownsville, Brandenburg,
Russellville, Paoli, Georgetown, Stanford, Albany, and Lebanon
435 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /335 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north 
  central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM 
  CDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CSG

709 
WWUS73 KLMK 141816
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
216 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150815-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.250314T2100Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-
Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-
Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Salem, Brownsville,
Lawrenceburg, Hodgenville, English, Paoli, La Grange, Columbia,
Brandenburg, Milton, Greensburg, Taylorsville, New Castle,
Lexington, Shelbyville, Madison, Carlisle, Danville, Winchester,
Jamestown, Jasper, Paris, Elizabethtown, Corydon, Bardstown,
Springfield, Tell City, Liberty, Scottsville, Richmond,
Lewisport, Bedford, Glasgow, Stanford, Cynthiana, Jeffersonville,
Lebanon, Albany, Morgantown, Hawesville, Lancaster, Horse Cave,
Bowling Green, Providence, New Albany, Edmonton, Russellville,
Leitchfield, Hartford, Campbellsville, Franklin, Georgetown,
Scottsburg, Burkesville, Louisville, Harrodsburg, Versailles,
Tompkinsville, Nicholasville, Hardinsburg, and Shepherdsville
216 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /116 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north 
  central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MCK

805 
WWUS73 KLMK 150256
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
956 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082-151500-
/O.EXT.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0600Z/
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Nicholasville, Stanford, Shepherdsville,
Providence, Edmonton, Frankfort, Harrodsburg, Campbellsville, La
Grange, Paris, Jamestown, Liberty, Lawrenceburg, New Castle,
Burkesville, Cynthiana, Bardstown, Lebanon, Columbia,
Hodgenville, Elizabethtown, Tompkinsville, Winchester, Albany,
Bowling Green, Leitchfield, Scottsville, Lexington, Taylorsville,
Franklin, Brownsville, Georgetown, Lancaster, Horse Cave,
Versailles, Carlisle, Shelbyville, Greensburg, Glasgow, Danville,
Richmond, Louisville, and Springfield
956 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /1056 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central 
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-032-061-070-151500-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Trimble-Butler-Logan-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Salem, Bedford, New Albany,
Tell City, Hartford, English, Paoli, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Jeffersonville, Corydon, Scottsburg, Jasper, Russellville,
Brandenburg, Milton, Morgantown, and Madison
1056 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /956 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and north central, 
  northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

EBW

739 
WWUS73 KLMK 150727
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
327 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-032-061-070-152115-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Trimble-Butler-Logan-
Including the cities of Brandenburg, English, Lewisport, Salem,
Russellville, Jasper, Milton, Bedford, Jeffersonville, Hartford,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Tell City, New Albany, Madison, Corydon,
Scottsburg, Paoli, and Morgantown
327 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /227 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds gusting over 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and north central, 
  northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles on east-west roads. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082-152115-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0600Z/
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Nicholasville, Stanford, Liberty,
Winchester, Horse Cave, Brownsville, Providence, Leitchfield,
Glasgow, Richmond, Bowling Green, La Grange, Shelbyville,
Jamestown, Edmonton, Versailles, Louisville, Campbellsville,
Lancaster, Columbia, Paris, Georgetown, Elizabethtown, Cynthiana,
Harrodsburg, Tompkinsville, Scottsville, Lexington, Greensburg,
New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Shepherdsville, Albany, Danville,
Bardstown, Carlisle, Burkesville, Franklin, Taylorsville,
Lebanon, Hodgenville, Springfield, and Frankfort
227 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /327 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central 
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles on east-west roads. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

13

467 
WWUS73 KLMK 151159
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
759 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-032-061-070-152115-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Trimble-Butler-Logan-
Including the cities of Brandenburg, English, Lewisport, Salem,
Russellville, Jasper, Milton, Bedford, Jeffersonville, Hartford,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Tell City, New Albany, Madison, Corydon,
Scottsburg, Paoli, and Morgantown
759 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /659 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and north central, 
  northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082-152115-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0600Z/
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Nicholasville, Stanford, Liberty,
Winchester, Horse Cave, Brownsville, Providence, Leitchfield,
Glasgow, Richmond, Bowling Green, La Grange, Shelbyville,
Jamestown, Edmonton, Versailles, Louisville, Campbellsville,
Lancaster, Columbia, Paris, Georgetown, Elizabethtown, Cynthiana,
Harrodsburg, Tompkinsville, Scottsville, Lexington, Greensburg,
New Castle, Lawrenceburg, Shepherdsville, Albany, Danville,
Bardstown, Carlisle, Burkesville, Franklin, Taylorsville,
Lebanon, Hodgenville, Springfield, and Frankfort
659 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /759 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central 
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

13

250 
WWUS73 KLMK 152033
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-032-061-070-160000-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Trimble-Butler-Logan-
Including the cities of Corydon, Brandenburg, Paoli, Hawesville,
Hardinsburg, Jasper, Bedford, Tell City, Madison, Salem,
Morgantown, Lewisport, Scottsburg, New Albany, Milton,
Jeffersonville, Russellville, English, and Hartford
433 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /333 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky, 
  mainly west of Interstate 65.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082-160600-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0600Z/
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greensburg, New Castle, Taylorsville,
Georgetown, Tompkinsville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Springfield,
Lexington, Richmond, Providence, Carlisle, Harrodsburg, Stanford,
Versailles, Leitchfield, Liberty, Glasgow, Bardstown,
Brownsville, Columbia, Shepherdsville, Lawrenceburg, Scottsville,
Burkesville, Danville, Albany, La Grange, Horse Cave, Cynthiana,
Elizabethtown, Nicholasville, Hodgenville, Edmonton, Frankfort,
Paris, Jamestown, Shelbyville, Louisville, Lebanon,
Campbellsville, Winchester, and Lancaster
333 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /433 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central Kentucky along and east of Interstate 
  65.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

RAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1155 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  today, though most locations will receive little to no rain.
  Unseasonably warm temperatures continue.

* A strong storm system will impact the region Friday night through
  Saturday night, bringing multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms. There will be two main waves: the first one late
  Friday night/early Saturday morning, and the second Saturday
  afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible, with
  strong gusty winds as the main threat.

* Non-thunderstorm winds will be strong and gusty Friday afternoon
  through Saturday. The most likely time for the strongest gusts
  will be Friday night with speeds over 40 mph possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Weak upper low is working the TN/MS border this morning and will
continue to push eastward into the afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery shows some mid to high clouds over central KY this morning
but with temperatures expected into the mid 70s and dew points
climbing into the low 50s, we will see an increase in SBCAPE between
1000-1500 J/kg as a stalled boundary remains over the area. This may
be enough to see an isolated storm or two develop this afternoon.
Like the going forecast when it comes to our 20-30 percent PoPs this
afternoon. The CAMs have had a difficult time with this system as it
has been very aggressive trying to develop activity that just hasn't
materialized. At this time, no changes to the current forecast is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This morning, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a
broken upper cloud deck across the Ohio and TN valleys, with breaks
in this upper sky cover revealing scattered low-mid level clouds
with bases between 5-8 kft. Another night of wide ridge-valley
temperature splits is underway, with a range of around 20 degrees
between the warmest and coolest locations at this hour. As mid-level
clouds increase toward dawn, would expect some reduction in the
temperature range if decoupled valleys begin to mix out.
Temperatures should bottom out in the 40s in cooler locations, with
50s in urban and more well-mixed areas.

Today, a compact upper-level shortwave will meander eastward across
the TN valley. While forcing associated with this disturbance will
be minimal, low-level moisture advection ahead of this wave will
promote the development of isolated to scattered showers across the
region later today. High resolution model guidance is considerably
less bullish on precipitation coverage than regional/global models,
so will continue the downward trend in PoPs for later today,
resulting in mainly slight chance to chance (20-30%) PoPs. Less
precipitation and cloud cover during peak heating hours has resulted
in an upward trend in expected temps today, though we should still
be a few degrees cooler than persistence. Will go with a range of 73-
78 for afternoon highs. Winds should be fairly light given a weak
pressure gradient over the region.

With low-level moisture increasing through the day combined with mid-
level height falls/cooling, noteworthy amounts of instability are
expected across the area. During peak heating, HREF mean SBCAPE
values reach between 800-1200 J/kg in the area. With this being
said, a well-defined triggering mechanism is lacking, though we'll
need to watch areas along and north of I-64 which are closer to a
washed-out sfc front for greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. With deep-layer shear on the order of 15-20 kt,
wouldn't expect storms to be particularly well-organized; however,
can't rule out some taller cells producing gusty winds or even some
small hail this afternoon. The main time window for any storms looks
to be between 19-01Z, diminishing as we lose diurnal heating.

This evening into tonight, clearing skies are expected, though
another band of upper level clouds will approach from the west
during the immediate pre-dawn hours Friday. All in all, expecting
fairly good viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse. Winds should
be light and variable, with another stark ridge-valley split in
temperatures for tonight into Friday morning. Lows are expected to
range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The daylight hours on Friday will be dry with partly cloudy skies,
allowing mixing up to around 4-5k'. 925-850mb winds will increase by
afternoon ahead of a deepening storm system over the mid-Missouri
Valley, facilitating gusts in southern Indiana and central Kentucky
of 30-40 mph by late afternoon primarily west of I-65. With the
sunshine, gusty winds out of the south, and surface dew point
depressions on the order of 30 degrees, temperatures will surge into
the upper 70s and lower 80s, threatening record highs. Went above
guidance in the forecast.

The strong area of nearly vertically stacked low pressure well to
our west on Friday will advance to the upper Mississippi Valley
Friday night, accompanied by an 80kt 5H speed max curling around the
southeast side of the system from the Ozarks to the Great Lakes
beneath the left exit region of an upper jet over the lower
Mississippi Valley. A narrow corridor of 1-1.25" PWAT air will
precede the system, pushing from the central Gulf through the Ohio
Valley to the Great Lakes. This channel of moisture will support a
line of thunderstorms that will initially develop early Friday
evening near the Mississippi River and push east into our neck of
the woods between midnight and dawn late Friday night/early Saturday
morning. There will be enough instability combined with strong deep
layer shear to support organized convection, and strong low level
jetting supports the threat of strong to severe convectively
enhanced wind gusts, above and beyond 30-40+ mph non-thunderstorm
wind gusts (some data support 40-50 mph gusts after midnight), as
the main threat with the line of storms. Strong 0-1/0-3km helicity,
looping hodographs, and STP of 1-2 indicate a tornado threat with
any bowing line segments and isolated supercells. Low level lapse
rates do weaken overnight, which may mitigate the tornado threat and
help to keep the strongest winds aloft, but model soundings as of
this writing stop short of developing a strongly stable surface
layer and maintain some weak SBCAPE through the night. Actually
can't rule out severe hail with stronger storms or any supercells,
given WBZ around 8-10k' and some dry air in the column. Flooding
will not be a problem Friday night with unimpressive tropospheric
moisture and speedy forward progression of the line of storms.

Saturday and Saturday night the system's parent low will lift NNE
into Ontario, dragging its attendant cold front into the Ohio Valley
by evening as a secondary area of low pressure rides up the boundary
from AR/MS to KY/OH. This will bring another wave of showers and
thunderstorms to the region Saturday afternoon and night. This
should be a more widespread area of convection (as opposed to the
first wave's narrow line) and will last for several hours. As a
result this poses more of a heavy rain threat, with 1-3" for many
locations and stripes of higher amounts possible. LREF-NH shows a 10-
20% chance of >3" Saturday afternoon through evening, and ECMWF
EFI/SoT is indicating slightly unusual rainfall amounts possible.
FFG numbers, which shouldn't be decreased significantly by Friday
night's storms, suggest that most areas can take 1-3" of rain spread
out over 12-18 hours. Nevertheless, local flash flooding in areas of
training storms could lead to minor flooding issues in spots that
collect water easily. All of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
are in a SLGT on WPC's Day 3 ERO. NAEFS indicates a 30-50% chance of
flooding on the Green River developing by Monday-Tuesday.

As for severe storms on Saturday, shear is *slightly* weaker but
still plenty for storm organization. Confidence is low in just how
much instability will be realized, with widely varying output from
the models and with more competition among storms given the more
widespread nature of the activity, and with the possibility of
robust convection over Mississippi and Alabama stealing some of our
thunder. However, soundings do show a fairly wide positive area with
moderate mid-level lapse rates. Winds aloft will remain strong with
a coupled upper jet possibly forming by late afternoon/early evening
as the surface low crosses Kentucky. NSSL ML severe probs and CSU ML
hazard probs are actually higher on Saturday than on Friday night.
So, definitely still something to keep an eye on particularly for
the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Outside of storms, wind
gusts of 30-40 mph can be expected, possibly higher depending on how
much sunshine is realized.

Scattered showers are expected on Sunday along a post-frontal
trough, but then high pressure moving along the Gulf coast will keep
us dry Sunday night through at least Tuesday night. Colder air
behind the departing weekend storm system will take temperatures
down to around the freezing mark Monday morning (right about normal
for this time of year), but the cool weather will be short-lived
with readings back into the 70s by Tuesday afternoon. The next
chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives with a cold front on
Wednesday...especially Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Light southerly winds and VFR conditions are expected through most
of the current forecast period. Broken high clouds will persist
across the region through early-to-mid afternoon, with a 5-7 kft
deck currently observed at BWG expected to spread to the northeast
later this morning. It is still uncertain how prevalent this low-mid
deck will be late this morning and into the afternoon; however,
ceilings should be above impactful thresholds regardless. Latest
model guidance continues to back off SHRA/TSRA coverage later today,
so we'll keep a dry forecast going at this time. If any shower or
storm were to develop, the best chance would be between 13/21Z and
14/03Z.

Light SE winds and mostly clear skies are expected tonight into
tomorrow morning. Winds will increase out of the S/SE Friday
morning, with stronger gusts possible by the end of the SDF TAF
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...CSG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1158 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-141600-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
1158 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 /1058 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds are
the main threats with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A strong storm system will impact the region Friday evening through
Saturday night. Storms will come in tow main waves: one late Friday
night into very early Saturday morning, and another Saturday
afternoon and evening. All hazards will be possible with both of
these waves of storms. In addition, isolated flash flooding will be
possible with the storms Saturday evening.

Outside storms, winds will be gusty Friday afternoon through
Saturday. The most likely time for the strongest gusts will be
Friday night with speeds over 40 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. The two most likely time
periods, as of this writing, appear to be from midnight to dawn late
Friday night/early Saturday morning...and from mid afternoon to late
evening Saturday. Keep an eye on forecast updates for any changes in
timing.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from north to south around 10 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm
activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with
caution and be prepared for changing conditions.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CSG/13/BTN