Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory extended through Friday.

* Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorms
  chances remain.

* Cold front brings additional rain chances and lower humidity by
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

In most areas across southern Indiana and central Kentucky
temperatures are on either side of 90, but a few areas have fallen
into the 70s and low 80s from rain showers currently working over
the area. This has produced a series of outflow boundaries that are
continue to cut across the area, kicking up new showers and
thunderstorms. The convection has had limited vertical growth (due
to mid-level subsidence) and tends to be relatively short lived,
producing winds up to around 30-35 mph. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather isn't expected.

Tonight, upper high pressure will continue expanding from the
Southeast west towards the Four Corners region, pushing the upper
trough, over the western CONUS, northward until upper flow is zonal
through the Great Lakes region. At the surface high pressure over
the Southeast will keep funneling moistures north up the Mississippi
and Ohio River Valley. Precipitable water values over the CWA will
continue to recover and increase to 1.6 to 2 inches by Friday
morning. Under mostly clear skies, lows will fall into the low to
mid 70s.

Tomorrow, south to southwest winds will continue to usher in moist
air. Dew points are expected to climb into the low to mid 70s in
most places. A few places could reach into the upper 70s, and with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat indices will climb back
into the mid 90s to near 100. These values are trending lower than
today's heat indices. The Heat Advisory was extended again through
Friday for what will probably be the last time. A lot of moisture
remains in the area, so afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
will once again be possible. Don't believe coverage will be as
widespread as today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Saturday, surface high pressure over the Southeast will continue to
sent moisture up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys ahead of a cold
front riding east along the zonal flow, north of the CWA. This is
expected to produce isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
throughout the Lower Ohio Valley.

Saturday to Monday, expect slightly cooler temperatures and ongoing
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures are expected
to fall into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

Monday night into Tuesday, an upper ridge is expected to amplify
over the Rockies as a trough deepens over the East Coast. Northwest
flow over the Lower Ohio Valley will push a cold front through the
CWA, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. Given as the
precipitation should move through during the overnight and morning
hours, severe weather chances remain low. Highs fall into the mid
80s to near 90 before falling dew points arrive on Wednesday,
falling into the mid 60s. Highs remain in the mid 80s to low 90s
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will continue as upper ridging and surface
high pressure remain over the Lower Ohio Valley. The exception could
be if one of the isolated to scattered storms directly hit an
airfield this afternoon/evening. Coverage remains limited, but we
continue to see these storms develop over urban heat and propagate
along outflow boundaries. Winds are generally out of the southwest
and are expected to back towards the south tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
421 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-272030-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
421 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 /321 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Any remaining showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate
early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain through
the weekend. Gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning are the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

KYZ026-261845-
Ohio KY-
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OHIO COUNTY THROUGH 145
PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Whitesville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fordsville, Dukehurst, Taffy, Ralph, Dundee, Magan, Deanefield,
Buford, Narrows, and Herbert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8701 3763 8695 3762 8692 3764 8689
      3765 8687 3767 8682 3771 8687 3774 8682
      3766 8664 3754 8673 3749 8687 3753 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 218DEG 12KT 3758 8684

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

KYZ024-027-028-261915-
Grayson KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN GRAYSON...SOUTHEASTERN
BRECKINRIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT/215
PM CDT/...

At 244 PM EDT/144 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Leitchfield, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leitchfield, Clarkson, Rock Creek, Seven Corners, Saint Paul, Peonia,
Flint Hill, Snap, Black Rock, and Royal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 8626 3749 8594 3745 8602 3745 8604
      3744 8604 3743 8606 3735 8621 3745 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 216DEG 5KT 3743 8625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

INZ092-KYZ031-261930-
Clark IN-Oldham KY-
257 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND
NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Prospect, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Prospect, Charlestown, Owen, Goshen, River Bluff, Westport, Oldham,
Greenhaven, Otto, and Clark Siding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8550 3859 8550 3859 8546 3858 8544
      3853 8542 3852 8543 3852 8542 3842 8538
      3835 8558 3838 8564 3837 8564 3843 8571
      3861 8552 3861 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 232DEG 11KT 3845 8555

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BJS

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