Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
944 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe storms possible Today and Saturday.

* 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Taking a look at recent ACARS soundings, there is a about 500J/kg of
SBCAPE already along the Ohio River. With some CAPE already present
and the stationary front north of the Ohio River, isolated showers
and storms have already developed over the region. These showers
remain low topped right now as there is still a little ML CIN to
overcome as we continue to warm. Over the next few hours,
temperatures will warm and instability will increase. Peak
instability in the afternoon will be 1800J/kg over southern Indiana
and increasing towards southern Kentucky to 2800+J/kg. A weak 25kt
LLJ will move over central and southern Kentucky in the afternoon
(associated with the MCS) which will help to increase low level
shear, however the deep layer shear remains weak. There may be
enough shear to help maintain a few strong storms, especially over
the southwestern portion of the region. There is higher confidence
in storms over the southwestern portion of the region and lower
confidence over the eastern areas. Storms along the stationary
boundary in southern Indiana will also have a potential for better
forcing or weak organization to support stronger storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Today, the overall pattern remains about the same. In the upper
levels, zonal flow continues, and at the surface, the pesky slow
moving southwest to northeast oriented front sits over southern
Indiana and western Kentucky. Along this front is where most of
yesterday's shower activity was.

Looking forward, wind energy continues to be weak, so any
thunderstorm will have a hard time getting organized. We have also
lack forcing, but we do have the warm temperatures and instability
that comes from that, and as clusters of storms work east out of the
Plains towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky, the question
will be how much instability will be in the area for the advancing
convection.

As ground temperatures warm and low level lapse rates increase, it's
easier to get gusty winds at the surface. The region is expected to
remain fairly cloudy today which will help limit diurnal warming,
but CAMs show MLCAPE values reaching to around 1,500 J/kg across
southern Indiana and into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. Mainly
south of the Ohio River and west of Interstate 65 with maybe a few
pockets in the Lake Cumberland area, MLCAPE values could reach to
near 2,300 J/kg or so, and MUCAPE values could climb to 2,700-2,800
J/kg. With the weak shear, tornadoes aren't likely, and lightning
and gusty winds remain the greatest threat from any thunderstorm
today. Hail is also possible given the instability, but due to the
lack of shear and high moisture level with precipitable water values
between 1.5-2", any hail will likely see some melting before
reaching the ground.

This afternoon isolated to scattered convection will likely develop
and work east across the CWA before the main line begins to arrive
on the western edge of the CWA around 21-22z. By this time low level
lapse rates might not be as steep. 30-40 mph wind gusts are probably
likely along this line, and by 2-3 most of the leading line should
be through the CWA with scattered convection remaining until 9-10z
Saturday morning.

Today, high temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid
80s with tonight's lows dropping to the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saturday, the day should begin fairly dry for most across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky, but as a shortwave in the upper flow
moves east across Iowa/Missouri, its surface low moving across
Missouri will help to produce showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the CWA Saturday evening. Model soundings aren't very impressive
with weak shear and limited instability, but the chance for
scattered convection will last into Saturday night.

By Sunday the region is expected to become mostly dry as an upper
trough pushes the surface low off to the northeast, but some
isolated to scattered convection is possible on Monday before a
large cold front drops to the southeast through the Lower Ohio
Valley. Surface high pressure behind the front is expected to
provide mostly sunny weather well into next week.

Temperature will remain fairly stable this week with highs in the
low to mid 80s and lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 713 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This afternoon, isolated to scattered convection is expected to
develop ahead of a line of storms that will move in from the west.
All area TAF sites are expected to be impacted. A heavy downpour
could lower visibilities for a short time. Ceilings this morning
will likely be slow to improve at HNB, but late tonight all area TAF
sites will likely drop to IFR levels or below around 9z or so.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-071400-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
946 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 /846 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The main
threats will be gusty to damaging winds, hail, minor floodig, and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday evening
and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

SRW

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