Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Louisville, KY

831 
WGUS73 KLMK 051932
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

KYC067-052015-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-250805T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette KY-
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area have diminished.  However, excessive 
runoff from the heavy rain will continue produce high water in spots 
over the next hour or so.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lexington, Northland, Thoroughbred Acres, Chevy Chase, U K 
  Arboretum, Highlands, Meadowthorpe, Cadentown, Bryan Station and 
  Cardinal Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you 
can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National 
Weather Service in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 8435 3797 8436 3794 8442 3797 8451
      3800 8457 3804 8460 3811 8460 3817 8445
      3816 8442 3811 8439

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon/evening, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

* Additional rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday.

* Below normal temperatures through mid week, with temperatures
  warming to around normal levels by late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Skies across the region this morning were partly cloudy, but overall
less cloudy than 24 hours ago.  Temperatures were in the middle to
upper 70s as of 10 AM.  Aloft, an upper level trough axis will
remain in place today and will be the main forcing mechanism for
convective development this afternoon.  Mesoanalysis shows a tongue
of higher PWAT values along the MS and Ohio Rivers with values of
1.5-1.6 inches.  As temps warm further into the 80s this afternoon,
scattered convection is likely to develop, probably a little earlier
than yesterday.

Trying to pin down a higher axis of PoPs is a bit more difficult.
However, the latest high resolution guidance still suggests an arc
of higher PoPs from southern Indiana southeastward into central and
eastern KY this afternoon, with slightly lesser chances as one works
down toward the Karst region of south/southwest KY.  Organized
severe weather risk remains low as shear values across the region
remain very marginal.  However, storms that go up with be able to
produce torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.  Some
isolated instances of flooding will be possible, especially in areas
where storms train over the same place.

Current forecast has this covered quite well.  Only some minor
adjustments were made to the grids in the short term.  Updated
products have been sent to production.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 438 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

We will remain under the influence of a weak shortwave trough and
associated sfc trough over the Ohio Valley. Lift associated with
this feature will result in some isolated to scattered showers along
with partly to mostly cloudy sky coverage over the area today.
Current nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery along with
observations shows mid-level stratus forming over the CWA while
radar continues to show a few isolated showers along and north of
the Ohio River. The low stratus and even some isolated patches of
fog are possible the remainder of the early morning hours before
sunrise. Highs today will continue to be below early August normals
warming into the low/mid 80s. If any showers/storms develop later
this afternoon, while not expected to be strong, with PWAT values
between 1.50" to 1.80" locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and
lightning will be the main threat from this activity.

Any shower/storm activity that does form will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating as we go overnight. We could also see patchy fog
develop, especially if we see enough clearing overnight as winds are
expected to remain light. Lows will be in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Wednesday through Thursday Night...

The upper-level ridge/heat dome is expected to remain centered near
the four corners region during the extended period. The upper trough
axis will linger over the Ohio Valley into Thursday as it weakens
some. We can expect more of the same, scattered diurnal convection
thanks to daytime heating.  With relatively weak shear, storms are
not expected to be severe and the PoPs start to become more isolated
each day. If we see development, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds
and lightning will remain the main threats. The upper trough axis
looks to move off to the east by Thursday helping to dry things out
for the end of the week.

Daytime highs will be below normal for early August with readings in
the mid 80s Wednesday and overnight lows in the middle-upper 60s.
Highs Thursday look to warm into the middle to upper 80s.

Friday through Monday...

Moving into the late week and into the weekend, the upper trough
axis over the eastern US looks to remain off to our east with a
blocking ridge over SE Canada and into northern New England.  The
ridge over the four corners area is expected to expand a bit to the
northeast and into the Plains.  As this occurs, it appears that the
SE US will likely remain in a weakness in the ridge aloft which may
allow a few disturbances to rotate into the SE US promoting an above
normal rainfall pattern.  Some of this activity looks to move toward
KY over the weekend.  While the details are not overly clear, there
is enough confidence here to keep at least chances of showers/storms
in the forecast through the period.  Temperatures look to return to
seasonal normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90
and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Scattered convection has fired across the region this afternoon,
mainly along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Expect scattered
convection to continue through the afternoon from HNB to SDF over to
RGA/LEX.  The most concentrated area of showers and storms will be
over in the LEX area through late afternoon.  While VFR conditions
should be prevailing, tempo drops to MVFR/IFR are likely within
showers/storms.

Storms will diminish toward sunset, with partly cloudy skies
overnight.  A combination of low stratus/fog is possible at the
sites overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM....MJ/BTN
AVIATION.....MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-060900-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 /400 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
outlook area. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will
be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall and lightning are the main hazards with any
thunderstorms. Additional chances of showers and storms are expected
over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN