Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1213 PM PST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through Northeastern Nevada this afternoon
into this evening, resulting in isolated snow showers. Low
temperatures tonight will be around fifteen degrees below normal
for this time of year. The next storm system will impact Northern
and Central Nevada Thursday through Friday night, resulting in
periods of snow.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night
A cold front will move southeastward through Northeastern Nevada
this afternoon into this evening, resulting in isolated snow
showers. Little to no snow accumulations are expected. Low
temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada tonight will be
around fifteen degrees below seasonal values. Minimum apparent
temperatures tonight will be below zero in the coldest valleys.
These very cold temperatures will impact the homeless and people
without adequate heating. Frostbite may occur if unprotected skin
is exposed to these very cold temperatures, especially for a
prolonged period of time. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for
most of Northern and Central Nevada from 12 AM PST tonight until
9 AM PST Wednesday morning. Here are probabilities of minimum
temperatures of 3 degrees or lower for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada on Wednesday, February 12th, 2025:

Eureka - 96%
Ely - 95%
Jackpot - 90%
Battle Mountain - 80%
Winnemucca - 75%
Wells - 70%
Spring Creek - 60%
Owyhee - 60%
Elko - 55%
Carlin - 50%

A short wave ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the
Silver State Wednesday. High temperatures throughout Northern and
Central Nevada Wednesday afternoon will be around ten degrees
below normal for this time of year. Precipitation ahead of a storm
system will begin to approach the service area Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday
Thursday all eyes are on the upper trough off the west coast as
it makes its way into the Great Basin with precipitation arriving
across the area by late evening. Models have been, and are still
having a difficult time with this system as temperatures, snow
levels, forecast heights, and frontal deformation and lift have
been highly variable run to run, with evening and overnight runs
colder/more snowy than the daytime runs. The only consistent
element that has shown high confidence is the amount of moisture
this system will deliver for both northern and central NV as
forecast QPF has been averaging 0.15” to 0.40” for the valleys,
0.30” to 0.60” for the passes and summits, of which the higher
amounts will be favored for the US-50 corridor. Mountains could
see from 0.8” to up 1.60” with the Ruby/E Humboldt Range seeing
the highest totals. Snow amounts above 6500 feet have been more
consistent with the mountains seeing 6” to 20” of new snow and
higher elevation passes across central Nevada could see up to 3”
to 8” of snow, northern Nevada passes and summits will be slightly
less at 2” to 6” of snowfall. The main question with this system
will be if accumulating snowfall can fall below 6500 feet. This
Winter has been a struggle to get QPF and Cold air into the
valleys at the same time, and this system will continue this trend
given all the mixed messages in the models. The overall system
track also does not favor cold air advection into Nevada, meaning
any cold air and thus snow accumulations will have to be
dynamically created frontogenetically through convection, however
timing will be key, as while models have shown this occurring but
every run has a different area impacted. All of this is leading
to a lower than normal confidence forecast for late week for the
valleys as current estimates are a trace to 2” will be possible
for the valleys. In the wake of this first system ridging will
move in for Sunday bringing a break in the precipitation chances,
but as this ridge quick slides east model consensus which has been
week at best falls apart Monday as the GFS shows another quick
hitting shortwave trough moving through NV, while the GFS favors
continued ridging and quiet conditions. Temperatures Wednesday
will be brisk with morning lows near zero to the teens, with highs
only warming to the mid 20s to mid 30s. Thursday through Monday
temperatures warm into the low 40s to low 50s for highs with
morning lows in the teens to low 30s.

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.AVIATION...
VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions at
all terminal sites through Wednesday under clearing skies with
Light and variable winds.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST
Wednesday Humboldt...Northern Elko...Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range in Elko...South Central Elko...Southeastern
Elko...Southern Lander and Southern Eureka...Southwest Elko...
White Pine.

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