Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
119 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1139 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

* Showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening with some
  storms possibly severe.

* Quiet weather through Wednesday.

* Frost over eastern NV Tuesday morning as lows dip well into the
  30s.

* Precipitation chances increase late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through early evening
hours on Sunday as an upper level trough drags its axis through
the region by early Monday morning. Cooler temperatures and
sufficient forcing are producing efficient hail making convection.
Strong and severe criteria storms are possible through the evening
across the area.

Northerly flow over the region Monday through Wednesday AM in the
eastern flank of a ridge will help dry the region out but also
create frost for portions of central, east-central, and
northeastern NV as overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s in
those locations.

As the ridge pushes east mid week background flow over the area
will shift to southerly in its western flank. Meanwhile another
low pressure system to the southwest will also migrate east and
provide some moisture and forcing over central NV to increase
precipitation chances mainly south of I-80. Beginning Thursday
evening PW values over Nye, southern Lander & Eureka, and White
Pine Counties will increase. CAPE values of near 200-300 J/kg
collocated with LI's of -2 will initiate convective development.
Frontogenesis associated with the system just to the south will
also aid in convective efficiency over central NV. A similar setup
with better moisture on Friday which looks to be the wettest day
associated with this latest system as 0.1-0.2 rainfall
accumulations are forecast for portions of eastern Nye and White
Pine counties. Precipitation continues through Saturday though
moisture values begin to ebb with a dry day and northerly flow
forecast for next Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Hourly grids were altered for Sunday evening as NBM cleared
convection out of the area ridiculously too soon. Pops grids were
blended using RAP/GFS/Euro to create a more accurate Wx grid
depiction. Model diagnostics used current and previous 12-hr
observations to verify accuracy of models used.

&&

.AVIATION...

Look for ISOLD/SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA continuing
across the area this evening. Confidence is not high enough to
warrant anything more than VCTS at terminals at KEKO-KENV-KELY-
KTPH. Clouds will scatter out this evening with SKC at all sites
Monday. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to 20KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms were continue over all fire weather
zones through evening hours on Sunday. CWR values suggest more wet
than dry activity for all fire weather zones. The focus of
precipitation will shift more so to fire weather zones 469, 470,
425, and 427 by early evening tonight.

Northerly flow into Monday morning will help keep the area dry
though mid week. Slightly stronger sustained winds (10-15 mph)
over northern fire zones 438, 469, and 470 will be collocated with
RH values well above fire weather criteria on Monday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

NVZ031-212200-
Northern Elko County NV-
223 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM PDT...

At 223 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Contact, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Elko
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4161 11464 4174 11476 4199 11441 4178 11418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 229DEG 20KT 4172 11457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
245 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

NVZ031-212215-
Northern Elko County NV-
245 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH 315
PM PDT...

At 244 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles southeast of Contact, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Elko
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 11444 4165 11451 4180 11423 4152 11414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 243DEG 10KT 4160 11437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

NVZ036-212230-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
255 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LANDER AND WEST
CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM PDT...

At 255 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Crescent Valley, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rainfall along with gusty winds could knock down tree
         limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage
         to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Lander
and west central Eureka Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 11650 4035 11663 4057 11640 4041 11619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 226DEG 12KT 4040 11646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

98

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