Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
228 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 133 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

* Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday, with afternoon highs
  in the mid 90s to low 100s

* Heat Advisory in effect through 9 PM Tuesday

* Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Monday
  through Wednesday

* Fire Weather Watch has been issued for gusty winds and low
  humidity for Tuesday for fire weather zone 425

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 133 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure builds over the Great
Basin region today with temperatures trending warmer. Highs this
afternoon will reach upper 90s to low 100s in most valley
locations. Similar temperatures on Tuesday. A heat advisory
remains in effect through Tuesday night.

There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening for areas north of the Interstate 80 corridor. Tuesday
a trough passes through the inter-mountain west which will bring
increased instability to much of Northern NV where isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible (10 to 25% chance). Best
chances for thunderstorms will be across eastern Elko County.
While most of Northern Nevada will have breezy westerly winds on
Tuesday, East-Central Nevada will have southwesterly winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. A weakened ridge remains
over the region on Wednesday with temperatures a few degrees
cooler. Precipitable water values rise across Central Nevada on
Friday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms to
White Pine and Northern Nye Counties.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well above
normal temperatures today through Tuesday. Moderate confidence in
isolated thunderstorms across portions of Northern Humboldt and
Northern Elko Counties this afternoon and early evening. Moderate
to high confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in Elko
County Tuesday. Deviations from the NBM continue today and
Tuesday with respect to thunderstorm chances. Used a blend of 2
parts NBM and 1 part NBM90Pct for winds across East-Central Nevada
Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday night
with no precipitation anticipated at this time. Monday afternoon
diurnal breezes will be light except for KTPH where gusts of 20KTs
are forecast until Monday evening.

AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Monday afternoon a passing system to the north will initiate
isolated dry thunderstorms along the northern NV border in zones
437/438/469/470 Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday afternoon
the dry thunderstorm threat expands to include zones
424/425/427/438/469/470.

In addition to thunderstorms, strong southwesterly winds ranging
15-20 mph with gusts between 30-35 mph combined with afternoon RH
values of 5-10% have prompted a Fire Weather Watch for zone 425
from 11AM until 10PM PDT Tuesday evening. The thunderstorm threat
will continue through Wednesday afternoon for zones
425/426/427/469/470.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
NVZ425.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99