Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
308 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Severe weather threat likely to continue well into the evening
hours, with Tornado Watch 5 in effect until 8 PM CST. There are no
plans to clear any counties or parishes from the watch with the
afternoon forecast package. In fact, won't rule out a watch
extension or additional watch, as severe weather threat could
continue as late as midnight or later in eastern portions of the
area until cold front moves through. Plenty of instability and
shear available for severe storm development. Additionally,
there's a low end heavy rainfall threat if cell training can
develop.

Wind Advisory was issued recently for areas along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor in southeast Louisiana until 6 PM CST.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 40 mph
noted in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metro areas. Expect wind
speeds to diminish somewhat after sunset.

Cold front will move into western portions of the area after
sunset, and exit into Alabama between midnight and 3 AM CST. The
passage of the front should also end any significant rainfall
threat. Thursday and Thursday night will be dry and much cooler,
with sunshine returning during the morning hours. High
temperatures Thursday will be 15 to 20 degrees or more cooler than
this afternoon. By Thursday night, overnight lows in the upper 30s
to upper 40s will similarly be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than what
was recorded this morning. Overall, temperature guidance is in
rather good agreement, which makes sense, as winds will not
decouple either tonight or tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Note that the 12z ECMWF was not available for assessment this
afternoon, but unlikely that it would have brought any major
shifts to the forecast.

A weak shortwave will pass to the north of the area Friday
morning, but moisture won't have had time to recover to produce
any significant precipitation. A much stronger trough will move
through the southern Plains on Saturday to the Appalachians by
Sunday morning. Instability and shear are forecast to be more than
enough for severe weather development Saturday afternoon and
mainly Saturday night. Another shortwave moving through zonal flow
over the Gulf Coast states will bring an additional chance for
rain at the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures will be on the roller coaster again. High
temperatures Friday will be near or below normal, but temperatures
Friday night are likely to rise as warm air advection kicks in.
High temperatures Saturday are likely to be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, possibly approaching records again. The cold frontal
passage Saturday will return colder air to the area with
temperatures from Sunday through the end of the forecast period
below normal. There's at least some potential for freezing
temperatures across northern portions of the area Monday and
Tuesday mornings. With 2+ weeks of much above normal temperatures,
and trees starting to bud, any freezing temperatures in our area
would necessitate Freeze Warnings, but it's way too early to issue
those.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A cold front and associated convective threat will be the primary
concern through around 06z. The initial convective concerns will
arise first at BTR, MCB, and HDC where two rounds of thunderstorms
may impact the terminals with gusty winds and IFR visibilities and
ceilings. The first round is projected to move through between
21z and 00z, and the second round is expected to slide through
between 00z and 03z. At HUM, MSY, NEW, and ASD, the convective
impacts are expected to be confined to one round of storms that
will pass through between 03z and 06z. At GPT, the convective
activity should peak between 04z and 07z. In the wake of the
storms, low stratus ranging between 300 and 500 feet will take
hold and remain in place through daybreak tomorrow. Increased dry
air advection and mixing will then allow ceilings to rapidly lift
and turn more scattered between 14z and 18z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waters through 12z
Thursday. Will likely need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines
for much of the waters during the day on Thursday, before
advisories are necessary again Thursday night. Hazardous
conditions are likely to continue across most or all of the waters
through the weekend, with no significant improvement in conditions
much before the daytime hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  57  37  64 /  80   0   0  20
BTR  49  62  42  67 /  70   0   0  30
ASD  52  65  43  68 /  90   0   0  20
MSY  54  63  48  67 /  90   0  10  30
GPT  52  65  42  65 / 100   0   0  20
PQL  55  69  42  68 /  90  10   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ046>048-056>060-
     064>070-077-078-085>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
101 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LAZ035-MSZ068>070-121945-
West Feliciana LA-Pike MS-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
101 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA PARISH, NORTHWESTERN PIKE, EASTERN WILKINSON AND AMITE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CST
...

At 101 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing funnel clouds along a line extending from near
Liberty to near Spillman. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Centreville, Woodville, Gloster, Norwood, Smithdale, and
Crosby.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 21
and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 9122 3135 9121 3132 9112 3134 9106
      3133 9103 3135 9102 3133 9099 3135 9098
      3135 9042 3115 9063 3099 9111 3100 9118
      3097 9118 3089 9143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 221DEG 41KT 3117 9071 3100 9126

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LAZ039-MSZ077-122015-
Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL
RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CST
...

At 130 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Varnado, or near Bogalusa,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Varnado and Crossroads.

This includes Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 40
and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8937 3076 8979 3084 8988 3101 8976
      3100 8975 3101 8951 3100 8950 3100 8947
      3098 8947 3098 8943 3101 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 225DEG 39KT 3084 8981

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
141 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LAZ039-MSZ071-122030-
Washington LA-Walthall MS-
141 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM CST
...

At 140 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Franklinton, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklinton and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9000 3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984
      3101 8984 3100 8978 3071 9023 3074 9026
      3077 9026 3081 9029 3116 9001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 226DEG 38KT 3085 9019

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
251 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LAZ079-080-122130-
Northern St. Tammany LA-Southwestern St. Tammany LA-
251 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY
PARISH THROUGH 330 PM CST
...

At 251 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Lacombe, or 11 miles
southeast of Covington, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sun, Lacombe, and Bush.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 67 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 8982 3062 8983 3056 8980 3056 8981
      3054 8978 3050 8975 3049 8972 3048 8972
      3025 8999 3029 9002 3033 9008 3066 8990
      3067 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 217DEG 42KT 3033 9003

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
308 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

LAZ039-071-MSZ070-071-122200-
Washington LA-Northern Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-Walthall MS-
308 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
TANGIPAHOA AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISHES, SOUTHWESTERN
WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CST
...

At 307 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Wilmer, or 10 miles northeast
of Amite, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, winds in excess of 40 mph, and half inch
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tylertown, Dexter, Mount Herman, and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 9004 3118 9003 3117 9000 3114 9000
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3105 8984
      3075 9038 3081 9046 3128 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 228DEG 43KT 3083 9037

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS