Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
304 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Negative tilt cyclone over Iowa will continue to move northeast
into Ontario later today. The next mid-level speed max will move
into Texas later this morning, then lift northeastward through the
lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon and evening. Deep
moisture is already in place, as the midnight special sounding
showed a precipitable water value of 1.73 inches, CAPE values in
excess of 2000 J/KG, helicity values around 300 m2/s2 and 7-8C/KM
mid-level lapse rates. Convective temperatures on forecast soundings are
in the upper 70s. Considering that at 2 AM CDT, temperatures
remain in the lower and middle 70s, any breaks in the cloud cover
at all will allow us to reach the convective temperature.

So, the airmass will certainly support severe weather, just
waiting for the lifting mechanism. While the best lift will be
just north of our CWA, where SPC is carrying a High Risk, we
expect there to be enough organized lift with the trough nearing
the area to produce at least scattered to broken areal coverage
of convection to develop by mid-morning, continuing through the
afternoon hours. The first hints of that can already be seen with
storms developing over east Texas within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
43 that has recently been issued. Most of the area is under a
Moderate Risk, which is a fairly rare occurrence for our area. If
there's a failure mode, it might be that areas near the coast
remain stuck under an inversion, weakening low level instability,
keeping convection elevated. Probably will see watches for
portions of the area by mid to late morning, running through much
of the afternoon hours. Even in areas that don't see
thunderstorms, it's going to be pretty windy, especially near and
south of the Interstate 10 corridor, where a Wind Advisory will be
in effect during the late morning and afternoon hours. The
advisory may need to be expanded slightly northward later this
morning. Additionally, the strong winds will bring tide levels
about a foot above normal to the Mississippi coast, where a
Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect through this evening.

The passage of the trough and surface front late this afternoon
and evening will end any threat of precipitation, with much drier
air moving into the area on Sunday. Dew points that are around 70
degrees this morning are expected to be in the 30s and 40s Sunday
afternoon. A 15 to 20 mph wind on Sunday will make it feel cooler
than the 60s to mid 70s that are forecast for high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

With much drier air in place Sunday night, it's not much of a
surprise that low temperatures will be considerably cooler by
sunrise Monday with portions of the northern half of the area
potentially seeing temperatures at sunrise in the upper 30s, and
only a bit warmer than that Tuesday morning, before the center of
the surface high moves to the east of the area. However, the dry
air in place should allow daytime temperatures to rebound into the
lower to mid 70s, which is actually a couple degrees above
normal.

The next upper trough will move from the Southern Plains Wednesday
morning to eastern Canada by Thursday morning. A cold front will
move across the area Wednesday night, but any moisture return will
be very weak. Any precipitation will likely just be isolated rain
showers, as dew points probably won't get much past 60 degrees.
That will bring another brief period of cooler temperatures for
Thursday and Thursday night, before temperatures warm above normal
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings across all terminals at forecast issuance
time. Could see ceilings lower a bit more, but don't expect
extremely low conditions developing. Any organized TSRA convection
looks like it will mainly occur during the daytime hours, but
won't rule out isolated storms entirely at KBTR and KMCB prior to
sunrise. Any daytime convection will have the potential to become
severe across pretty much all terminals with the main threat
ending from west to east by late afternoon or early evening with
VFR conditions expected in the wake of the convection. Even
without TSRA, winds will be an issue on east-west runway
configurations at most fields with sustained southerly winds
exceeding 20 knots and gusts above 30 knots through much of the
daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

No plans to change marine headlines at this time. While there may
be a few gale force gusts over the tidal lakes and Mississippi
Sound, the larger threat will be over the open waters. With the
passage of the trough and front, conditions should improve
somewhat by the overnight hours. We may still need Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines, or extended advisories for some or
most waters Sunday into Monday. Additional advisories may be
necessary at mid-week next week with the following system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  51  69  39 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  82  52  72  42 /  80   0   0   0
ASD  80  56  75  40 /  80  10   0   0
MSY  80  57  72  50 /  80   0   0   0
GPT  75  56  72  44 /  80  40   0   0
PQL  79  57  77  40 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ046-056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW