Gale Warning 4, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1158 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Models have finally decided to play along and initialize much better
yesterday and early today and this has caused all model solutions to
merge into strong consensus. This gives much higher confidence
levels and now we can get much more in depth with variables
concerning this next weather episode. The first of 2 sfc lows will
move along the Red River valley today. This will draw the stalled
boundary over the northern gulf northward as a warm front starting
this morning. The warm front will be north of the CWA by 6pm
bringing a fast warming trend along with a definite moisture
increase. There is the potential that some showers accompany the
warm front but these would be more likely with a moisture loading
convergent boundary moving in from the gulf Tue morning. Wind speeds
will begin to become breezy today as the warm front moves through
but will remain under any headline criteria. Today should be prep
day for Tue. As the sun comes up Tue, it won't take long for
winds to get up to around 25-30mph with gusts to 40mph and this
could be much higher as the line of storms move through. These
winds will not be associated with the line of storms and will be
longer duration through the day. The front moves through
rapidly(around 25mph) along with its line of storms that should be
strong/severe. Momentum transfer alone would get winds easily
into the 30mph range but dry air will be moving into the back side
of this line with some strong downdrafts causing convective winds
to also reach 30-40 additional mph, so its easy to see where the
straight line wind threat is coming from. Every severe weather
parameter is moderate to high with this system, so there is no
doubt that there will be some severe storms containing all modes
with this. Just how far south this line is able to produce severe
storms will be the question since the storms along it will tapper
southward, hence the slight risk to the south of the enhanced risk
from SPC. Timing has a higher confidence level now for Tue as
well. For several locations, we will give some timing expectations
here. The line of strong/severe storms should move through these
locations at their respective times, along with rainfall ending
times. BTR line between 2-5p rain ending around 7p. MCB line
between 3-6p rain ending around 8p. NEW/MSY line between 5- 7p
rain ending around 8p. GPT line between 7-9p rain ending around
11p. With strong onshore flow, we will also be introducing a
coastal flood advisory starting at 6a Tue. This should transfer
from west to east through the day since winds will increase to the
west earlier and transfer east. This is also centered around high
tide times, but all other headlines will remain as is for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Strong high pressure will build into the area after Tue with cool
dry air moving through. The high building in will help keep winds
breezy Wed then quickly relax for Thu becoming an onshore wind by
Thu night. Some showers could move through by the end of the week
but the next frontal system should not affect the area until the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Generally VFR conditions are forecast for the entire forecast
cycle, although a little bit of MVFR possible near the end of the
cycle due to ceilings. Winds will strengthen later today with
gusts in the 20-30 knot range. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

The stalled frontal boundary just offshore will move back north as a
warm front today causing winds to become SE and rise to 20-25kt
ahead of the next stronger cold front expected to move through late
Tue with strong southerly gales ahead of it and W to NW winds of 20-
30kt behind it. Winds will rapidly ease Thu as a sfc high moves over
the northern gulf. But this will be quick and the sfc high will be
east of the area late Thu bringing return flow back to the coastal
waters. Wind speeds will quickly move back up to around 20kt by Thu
night into Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  75  50  64 /   0 100  30   0
BTR  58  79  51  67 /   0 100  10   0
ASD  57  78  55  69 /   0  80  60   0
MSY  60  78  56  68 /   0  80  50   0
GPT  57  72  55  67 /   0  50  80   0
PQL  55  77  57  71 /   0  30  90   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ066>070-076-078-080-082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...TE