Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Cold front sagging south this morning and will stall by mid morning
around 9-10am. This will cause the area of sh/ts to the north to
move into the area just before daylight today. Forcing and focus is
beginning to weaken with this and dominant forcing will eventually
become cold pooling. Stability paramaters are also increasing
somewhat as well. This is mostly due to winds becoming parallel to
the frontal boundary today. This is not to say there will be no
potential for a strong or severe storm because numbers remain
marginal but they do exist. SPC has a marginal risk for severe today
and this looks valid. But as stability slowly rises, these storms
should slowly weaken further as the day progresses. There will be
plenty of rainfall around and it is needed. A few of these storms
will be capable of rain rates around 2" per hour but will be
transitory. This would still be capable of ponding in the normal
places. The next issue will be fog tonight. Conditions are looking
very good for advection fog tonight into Tue morning. This looks to
be a strat deck moving in a few hundred feet up then slowly lowering
to the sfc or it could just move in as fog. We will be able to look
at this a bit more well ahead of tonight but the moisture
source(rain) and thermal profiles will be at very good levels with a
stalled frontal boundary right next to the area. "It don't get much
better than that."

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

The front will be quasistationary most of the week but should make
its way to the coast by late Tue before stalling again. It should
then pivot by late Wed making its way along the coast then northward
up the Miss River valley through the end of the week. This will help
keep mostly cloudy skies with low probabilities of a passing shower
through mid week. We will keep precip numbers low during mid week
but will begin to bring these numbers higher toward the end of the
week as we are now beginning to move into the time of year for MCS
structures and models are trying to show just this type of feature
moving out of the Rio Grande Valley by the end of the week. Since,
these are mesoscale features, we will need to be a lot closer in
time to it before determining how strong and where it will move by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Mostly MVFR cigs with a few sites showing VFR cigs this morning. All
locations will at least temporarily have IFR cigs this morning
especially as TSRA moves into the area. Temp IFR vis could result
from these storms as well along with gusty multidirectional winds as
they approach. Cigs should move to MVFR around noon today and VFR
during the afternoon. But cigs and vis will rapidly move to IFR and
possibly LIFR ranges after midnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Southerly winds will remain at 15kt or less today but become light
and erratic later today into Tuesday before becoming northerly late
Tuesday but still 15kt or less. East winds will develop by Thu into
the end of the week with wind speeds rising to around 20kt. There is
a high potential for dense fog in the nearshore waters tonight into
Tue morning. This will hold especially true for the Miss River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  57  84  56 /  70   0   0   0
BTR  79  60  85  59 /  60   0   0   0
ASD  79  58  84  59 /  70  10   0   0
MSY  77  61  82  62 /  80  10   0   0
GPT  74  58  80  58 /  70  10   0   0
PQL  76  55  81  56 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
652 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

LAZ037-039-071-MSZ069>071-077-241215-
Washington LA-St. Helena LA-Northern Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-
Walthall MS-Amite MS-Pearl River MS-
652 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ST.
HELENA, NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA AND WASHINGTON PARISHES, WALTHALL, PIKE,
EASTERN AMITE AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM CDT
...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kentwood to 9 miles south of Dexter.
Movement was south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Osyka, Enon, Roseland, Tangipahoa, Crossroads, Summit, Magnolia,
Mount Herman, Wilmer, Kentwood, Bogalusa, Angie, Mccomb, Poplarville,
Varnado, Mccomb Airport, Salem, Franklinton, Dexter, and Tylertown.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 49 and 66.
 Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 24.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 21 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
southeastern Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 9008 3134 9004 3118 9003 3117 9000
      3113 9000 3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984
      3100 8983 3101 8951 3098 8947 3098 8943
      3101 8942 3100 8934 3074 8934 3070 8985
      3075 9066 3135 9065 3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 015DEG 13KT 3097 9059 3094 9000

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MSW