Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Observations coming into the WFO this morning indicate that
several locations along the coast have been gusting to 35 MPH
along with visibilities in the 1/2 1/4 mile range in heavier snow
bands. As a result, we've opted to issue what is, to this
forecaster's knowledge, the first blizzard warning ever issued by
this office for Jasper and Orange counties as well as Cameron,
Calcasieu, Jeff Davis, Acadia, Lafayette and Vermilion parishes.

Winter precipitation has largely transitioned over
to all snow as of this hour with nearly the entire region seeing
at least some light accumulation since midnight. Most photos and
reports received this morning indicate generally less than an inch
of snowfall so far. Widespread snow is expected to continue
across the area through the morning before coming to an end from
West to East between 9 AM and 3 PM. There haven't been any large
scale changes to the forecast snowfall amounts this morning
although the swath of highest totals (6-7 inches) has been nudged
a bit further east over Acadiana. Widespread amounts of 2-6 inches
are still expected generally south of the Hwy 190 corridor with
1-2 inches of accumulation north of that boundary.

The coastal low responsible for this morning's snowstorm will be
swept quickly off to the east this afternoon by a quickly moving,
dry frontal boundary that will advect still colder air into the
region through the evening. High pressure settling over the area
by around sunset will clear skies, calm winds and combine with
what is expected to be several inches of snow pack to yield the
coldest temperatures of the week and quite possibly of the entire
year tonight. Lows will fall into the lower teens and possibly
upper single digits with apparent temperatures in the mid to lower
single digits. Not ruling out some apparent temps getting to zero
early Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure remains in control through the day Wednesday
with afternoon highs barely rising above freezing if at all. Any
snow accumulations will remain in place through the day. Another
near ideal radiational cooling night Wednesday night into Thursday
morning will have temperatures in the teens once again although
with less wind. The region will finally get above freezing
for a few hours Thursday afternoon which will likely be the first
real opportunity for snow to begin melting.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Friday, high pressure over the midwest will expand southward over
the Gulf Coast with temperatures slowly rebounding into the lower
50's across SETX while southern LA, particularly toward the lower
Acadiana area. Here, locations may see temperatures remain in the
mid 40's. At this point, the arctic airmass will be modifying and
broadening to the east. Lows will continue to drop below freezing
over interior portions of the area during leading into Saturday with
the exception of the Coast as the nocturnal BL succumbs to the usual
marine influence again. This high pressure cell will continue to
build and consolidate over the SECONUS during the day allowing
southerly onshore flow to return with highs again hedging further
into the mid to upper 50's.

An upstream shortwave begins to take shape over the Colorado
Rockies, however, guidance is fairly confidence the associated cold
front and CAA will be minimal compared conditions that will occur
through the short term. As the system approaches the southern
Plains, southerlies increase into Sunday allowing the later half of
the weekend to continue a warming trend as morning lows keep to 15
- 20° above freezing, followed by 60's across the CWA on throughout
the afternoon. Chances of rain do increase through the morning
Sunday. However, with the polar and subtropical Jet diverging,
moisture convergence will occur more efficiently along the TN
valley, with a lessor extent SW over the lower Mississippi Valley
and SE Coastal TX. The frontal boundary begins to stall over the
SETX coast while loosely draped downstream over the TN valley into
Monday. This pattern favors periodic rain showers and mild 60's into
the start the work week.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Snow will continue to fall through the mid morning hours across
all terminals with gradual tapering west to east into the
afternoon. Conditions will remain generally MVFR through the next
several hours. Some terminals may hold IFR or deteriorate to LIFR
conditions briefly while heavy bands of snow move over those
airports thus resulting in temporary blizzard conditions. Acadiana
terminals will continue to see periods of moderate snow into the
mid afternoon before system in the Gulf is ushered east with
strong cold air advection to the north. Conditions will improve to
VFR from west to east late afternoon into dusk.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Strong and gusty northerly winds will continue through the day as
a surface low moves across the Northern Gulf of Mexico. A Gale
Warning remains in effect through Midnight tonight for the 0-60
nautical mile marine zones with these winds increasing seas to 5-9
feet. Other than the gale force conditions, the low will also
generate widespread snow across the inland lakes and bays, and
coastal waters. Snow will come to an end this afternoon as the low
responsible pushes off to the East. Winds will begin to diminish
late tonight into Wednesday and remain light offshore through the
end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  13  39  18 /  60   0   0   0
LCH  30  13  33  20 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  31  12  31  16 / 100   0   0   0
BPT  33  15  38  24 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     LAZ027>033-045-055-153-154-253-254.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-
     152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST today for LAZ044-073-074-141>143-
     152-241>243-252.

TX...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ180-
     201-259>262.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST today for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

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