Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1132 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern continues through the upcoming
  week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms each day.

- High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees above normal this week,
  while low temperatures will run around 10 degrees above normal.

- Tides will run above normal this week with a moderate onshore
  flow.

&&

.UPDATE...

Wx map shows cold front moving through Northeast Texas and
Northwest Louisiana this evening. Radar showing most of the
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, with one
cluster of thunderstorms approaching Northwest Tyler County. A few
other showers noted across Central and South Central Louisiana.
The cold front expected to move further southeast overnight and
stall just north of the area, with showers and thunderstorms
increasing across Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana overnight
into Monday morning. Updates to the latest guidance not showing
any significant changes to previous forecast.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Widely scattered to scattered showers were seen today in
locations mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Temperatures were in
the lower 80s and winds were out of the south, gusting mainly in
the 25 to 35 mph range.

A cold front is located north to south across Texas, and it will
approach our region late tonight into Monday. However, it never
makes it past us, and in fact, actually backs up to our north as
a warm front later on Monday night. What this means is we will not
see as much rain as initially thought for tonight through Monday,
with south central Louisiana seeing less than a tenth of an inch,
and parts of southeast Texas and central Louisiana seeing maybe
an inch or so. The severe storm threat looks low as well.

We will still see the southerly flow on Tuesday, so still
expecting scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but rain
totals will be on the low side, less than half an inch. No severe
storms are expected.

Temperature-wise, we will run a few degrees above normal for the
highs - in the lower 80s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s - around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Wednesday looks like the wettest day of the week, with rain totals
ranging from half an inch in south central Louisiana, to over an
inch in southeast Texas. So far not expecting severe storms, but
WPC does highlight southeast Texas and western Louisiana in a
slight risk for heavy rain/flash flooding.

The trend for the remainder of the week is going drier and warmer.
By Saturday no rain is expected, and high temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Winds continue to subside however a few gusts remain this evening,
however those will be decreasing as the front continues to
approach. Otherwise IFR and at times LIFR Cigs are expected
tonight and early tomorrow.

precipitation timing will also be a big part of the forecast with
categorical mention at BPT and AEX and prob30 at all other
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The small craft advisory will expire at 4 pm this afternoon. Light
to moderate southerly flow will continue for much of the upcoming
week. Tides will run around a foot above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  80  64  84 /  40  70  10  70
LCH  70  83  68  83 /  20  50  10  50
LFT  71  85  68  84 /   0  30  10  60
BPT  70  81  69  84 /  40  60   0  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
309 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

TXZ180-259-260-210845-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
309 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER...WEST
CENTRAL NEWTON AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 308 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fred, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bleakwood, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, and Kirbyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 9412 3066 9418 3086 9391 3070 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 238DEG 33KT 3064 9412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kowalski