Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
205 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for counties and
  parishes north of the I-10 corridor until 8 AM.

- Dense sea fog across the inland lakes, bays, and near shore
  coastal waters to spread inland up to I-10 ahead of the cold
  front. Fog will dissipate by 9 AM inland but may persist over
  the coastal waters through late morning.

- Very Warm, dry and breezy conditions for the middle part of the
  week until the next significant chance for showers and
  thunderstorms at the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83 has just been issued for counties and
parishes north of the I-10 corridor through 8 AM this morning.
Latest radar imagery depicts convection initializing within this
area at this time and expect these storms to continue to intensify
over the next several hours. The HRRR has been consistent in
developing a robust MCS across the region from central Louisiana
to Acadiana through the morning and while this may be a bit
overdone, the general idea makes meteorological sense based on the
just completed 06Z sounding which depicts strong lapse rates of
9 deg C/KM. Severe storms producing large hail and strong winds
are already ongoing across parts of central Louisiana just north
of Alexandria.

Away from storms, marine fog over the near shore coastal waters
has been working inland over the last couple of hours and is
expected to continue to do so until the front sweeps it back
offshore later this morning.

The frontal boundary responsible for the storms this morning will
continue east clearing the area by late morning with the sun
likely making an appearance by mid to late afternoon. The airmass
behind the boundary is "cold" in name only as there won't be much
difference in sensible temperatures. Winds will briefly turn out
of the North this afternoon and evening before turning back out of
the southeast by Tuesday morning as surface high pressure quickly
traverses the region.

Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday
afternoon. This, combined, with the return flow in the lower and
mid levels will have the potential to kick off some diurnally
driven afternoon convection Wednesday afternoon. As is the case
with this variety of storms, they should weaken and dissipate
around or shortly after sunset.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Temperatures will continue to warm through the latter half of the
week with highs approaching 90 across central Louisiana Thursday
and Friday. Daily afternoon diurnally driven convection look
likely especially across central Louisiana in the warmest temps.
Another frontal boundary will push through the region next weekend
with this one having a more significant change in airmass which
should drop highs back into the lower 70s and lows into the lower
50s. This might be one of the last real gasps of spring for this
area so be sure to savor it.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Lowering ceilings to MVFR expected after 01z for southern terminals
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, gradually lowering to IFR by 04-05z. For BPT
possibly LCH, even lower ceilings/visibilities possible between
08-12z if the marine fog layer moves further inland. Still questionable
at this time. Other issue will be area/line of SHRA/TSRA moving
across the area after 06z for Central and Southern Louisiana. Best
chances are for AEX between 08-12z, 10-14z for LCH/LFT/ARA. Lower
chances for BPT around 20% will keep just VCSH at this time. Frontal
passage and lifting ceilings expected between 16-18z across the
area.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Southerly flow will continue until a cold front briefly shifts
winds to the north Monday afternoon. Until the front arrives,
warm moist air will move over relatively cooler shelf waters
allowing for the potential of dense sea fog for the near shore
waters as well as coastal lakes and bays. Southerly flow returns
Tuesday and will increase becoming quite breezy with building
seas on Wednesday as low pressure moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  56  81  69 /  30   0  10   0
LCH  84  64  80  71 /  30  10   0   0
LFT  82  64  82  72 /  70   0   0   0
BPT  85  66  81  71 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ073-074-
     152-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432-
     435-436-450-452-455.

&&

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...08