Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weakness moving overhead and area moisture will keep scattered
  rain and storm chances in the forecast today and tomorrow.

- Tropical wave will move into southeast Texas Saturday. Heavy
  downpours are likely on Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, no
  tropical impacts.

- A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of
  the week, dropping precip chances and allowing for higher temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The dog days of summer are here. Hot and humid weather with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next
week. At the surface, high pressure in the Gulf will help limit
convection, while aloft a broad trough will continue to create an
unsettled pattern.

The influence from the upper-level disturbance will start to
lessen today and tomorrow as high pressure builds in from the
east. As the ridge builds in, showers and thunderstorms will
become more isolated in amount and coverage, with most convection
limited to the coastal areas,forming along the sea breeze. The
center of the ridge will remain to our east, and while it will
limit convection, it won’t be strong enough to stop it entirely.
Generally, we will keep PoPs around 50% south of I-10 and around
20% north of I-10.

Through the weekend, temperatures will slowly rise with highs in
the mid to upper 90s area-wide. Overnight lows won’t provide much
relief either, as they will remain in the mid to upper 70s as
well. Heat index values will be in the triple digits everyday so
make sure to stay hydrated and cool!

Moving to the tropics, the NHC has highlighted an Invest area in
the Bay of Campeche. Currently, the system has a 20% chance of
development, but it is moving towards a favorable wind shear
environment (>15 knots) with warm SST above 78 degrees F. With the
above-mentioned ridge building to our west, this system will
remain well south of our area, and if any development does occur,
it will mainly impact south Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The long-term forecast looks like the short-term forecast.
Temperatures will be the main concern day to day, with heat index
values routinely reaching the triple digits. While it doesn’t look
like we will reach our heat advisory criteria of 108F, heat
precautions should be at the top of mind, especially in the
afternoon when kids are out of school. Make sure to look before
you lock and take plenty of breaks from the heat!

Weather-wise, we will be looking at afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along the coast and isolated convection farther
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain the main concern for
all terminals in the short and long-term forecast. PROB30 TSRA or
VCTS will remain in the forecast during daytime. Amendments should
be expected to cover the impacts from pop-up showers and
thunderstorms. After sunset, convection will fade. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions are expected with winds from the south
around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Background winds are light, less than 10 knots, from the south as a
ridge pushes in from the east. Waves are slightly higher than
guidance expects, between 2 and 4 feet, with a short period around
6 seconds.

In the forecast, we are focusing on two main impacts. The first is
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the lake, bays, and
inland coastal zones. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be
locally higher, and strong thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. The
second is a tropical Invest area in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC
currently gives the system a low chance of development (20%). If
this system develops, we can expect swells to impact our area, so
make sure to keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Despite high KBDI values (above 600 for most of central
Louisiana), high minimum RH values and near-normal rainfall
amounts this summer have limited fires. Over the next 5 days,
rainfall chances will decrease for central Louisiana but will
remain high along the coast. Minimum RH values will remain near
50% with light winds. Overall fire danger will stay on the low end
for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  95  74 /  50  20  40  10
LCH  92  78  93  78 /  40  10  50  10
LFT  91  78  93  77 /  40  10  50   0
BPT  92  77  92  77 /  50  10  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     Flash Flood      2 SW Alexandria         31.26N 92.49W
08/14/2025                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Public reports Jackson St Extension is
            inundated with water. Several cars are
            stalled.

&&

MKC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Lightning        2 SW Alexandria         31.27N 92.49W
08/14/2025                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Public reports nursing home on Jackson st
            was struck by lightning, resulting in a
            fire.

&&

MKC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
745 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Alexandria        31.28N 92.49W
08/14/2025                   Rapides            LA   911 Call Center

            Parish 911 center reports several cars
            stranded due to street flooding in the
            Jackson St and Versailles Boulevard areas.

&&

MKC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
759 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

LAZ027-TXZ259-260-150145-
Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
759 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISH...
NORTHERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM
CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burr Ferry to near Farrsville. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Toledo Bend Dam, Burkeville, Browndell, Jamestown,
Farrsville, Harrisburg, Burr Ferry, Mayflower, Stringtown, Evans, and
Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 9341 3090 9342 3087 9402 3114 9400
      3116 9391 3118 9362 3117 9358 3119 9355
      3123 9354 3124 9356 3125 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 009DEG 3KT 3107 9356 3105 9382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
806 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

LAZ027-150145-
Vernon LA-
806 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VERNON PARISH THROUGH 845
PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Slagle to near Leesville. Movement was
southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesville, Rosepine, Fort Polk, Slagle, New Llano, Cravens, and
Pickering.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 9303 3094 9344 3119 9344 3122 9327
      3120 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 023DEG 5KT 3114 9317 3114 9337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun