Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Our upper-level pattern remains steady, with a trough digging
across the central Gulf Coast. While the trough is situated
overhead, our wet pattern will persist, bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. PWAT values remain
elevate, above the 90th percentile, supporting a Marginal risk of
flash flooding today and possibility again tomorrow. This trough
will eventually begin to shift eastward as a shortwave propagates
across the central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the
same time, ridging will begin to build in, promoting more
subsidence and leading to reduced shower activity by midweek.

Due to widespread cloud cover, high temperatures have struggled
to climb out of the 80s. However, we can’t rule out a few 90s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

During the second half of the week, convection will be primarily
diurnally driven, with less organized activity and more airmass
thunderstorms developing along boundaries. As the ridge continues
to build overhead, rain chances will drop to more typical
summertime levels of 30 to 50% with showers mainly in the
afternoon. Showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, generally
dissipating after sunset.

With reduced cloud cover, temperatures will begin to rise into the
low 90s along the coast, with a few degrees higher possible
farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low ceilings are present across the region along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. VFR to MVFR conditions will persist
through the rest of day. Near convection VIS and CIGs will drop to
IFR / LIFR conditions for short periods. After sunset convection
will fade with VFR conditions present until sunrise when new
convection will begin to impact the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  92 /  20  40   0  50
LCH  77  89  77  89 /  10  50   0  50
LFT  75  88  75  89 /  10  70  10  70
BPT  75  89  77  89 /  10  40   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
206 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

TXZ180-201-161930-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
206 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Village Mills, or 7 miles east of Wildwood, moving northeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Fred, Wildwood, Caney Head, Village Mills, and Spurger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 9416 3057 9409 3055 9409 3055 9408
      3053 9407 3051 9408 3049 9408 3047 9410
      3046 9410 3042 9412 3035 9436 3056 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 245DEG 6KT 3050 9431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
210 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

LAZ029-161930-
Avoyelles LA-
210 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AVOYELLES PARISH THROUGH
230 PM CDT...

At 210 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake Ophelia National Wildlife Refuge to
near Big Bend. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marksville, Simmesport, Moreauville, Bordelonville, Mansura,
Brouillette, Big Bend, Lake Ophelia National Wildlife Refuge, and
Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 9201 3122 9199 3125 9196 3122 9194
      3123 9192 3128 9195 3130 9191 3126 9185
      3127 9184 3123 9179 3119 9168 3117 9168
      3114 9172 3110 9170 3105 9172 3097 9181
      3090 9180 3087 9186 3117 9215 3130 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 232DEG 35KT 3123 9195 3104 9178

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
231 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

TXZ615-616-162000-
Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Orange TX-
231 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Groves. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Vidor, Bridge
City, Central Gardens, Rose City, and Southeast Texas Regional
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 9406 3013 9401 3000 9378 2984 9390
      3002 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 222DEG 4KT 2996 9393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

TXZ180-201-162015-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND
NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Honey Island to near Warren. Movement was
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Warren, Fred, Wildwood, Village Mills, and Honey Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 9463 3049 9456 3049 9454 3051 9454
      3064 9445 3062 9408 3038 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 267DEG 14KT 3044 9448 3058 9434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
309 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

TXZ180-201-162045-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
309 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Village Mills, or near Wildwood, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Warren, Fred, Wildwood, Spurger, Caney Head, Honey Island,
and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 9455 3070 9416 3049 9409 3047 9410
      3046 9410 3045 9411 3044 9411 3043 9412
      3042 9411 3041 9412 3040 9411 3033 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 252DEG 16KT 3048 9436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Tingler