Gale Warning 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1126 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will begin to strengthen Today with increasing humidity
  ahead of the next front. A few showers possible today

- A strong storm system to bring the potential for severe weather
  on Mardi Gras, with a risk for significant severe weather across
  central LA

- The High Wind Watch continues for Tuesday for southwest and
  central LA as very strong southerly winds are expected

- The Gale Watch continues for Tuesday for the coastal waters due
  to the potential for frequent gale force gusts.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for coastal southeast
  Texas and Louisiana due to strong onshore winds driving waters
  up at high tide time

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

A few light showers have been noted in central Louisiana, brought
on by a passing upper shortwave perturbation. Not expecting much
issue out of these, and a few sprinkles will be possible for
northern areas through the early morning. The trof moves off and
any lingering rainfall should end through lunch.

The big discussion is clearly Fat Tuesday's forecast. Let's break
it down by issue: winds outside thunderstorms, the severe weather
risk, winds behind the front. (TLDR at the bottom.)

Winds outside thunderstorms... a rather potent low pressure system
is set to start developing in the central Plains today. This
system will generate a pressure gradient causing south winds to
increase today. As the low starts its march east into Tuesday
morning, the polar jet associated with the low and subtropical jet
will phase right overtop the ArkLaTex. This phasing will cause the
jet overtop the forecast area to really strengthen, with 60 to 70
knots at 850 mb in central and south Louisiana in the afternoon.
These winds mixing down in the afternoon are what will bring about
such strong gusts during daytime hours. Sustained winds 20 to 30
MPH with gusts 40 to 50 MPH are absolutely possible away from
thunderstorms. That's the reasonably expected scenario; the
reasonable worst case scenario places gusts 50 to 60 MPH. Because
of such strong winds in the forecast, a High Wind Watch is in
place for southwest and central LA Tuesday. Expect an upgrade to
warning sometime today.

Severe weather risk... As a cold front associated with the low
pressure center approaches, showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to form ahead of and along the boundary. Widespread
showers will likely develop by Tuesday AM, simply on the broad
upscale lift generated by the system. A few isolated thunderstorms
could be in the mix by around lunchtime as SBCAPE pushes into the
1000 to 1200 J/kg range, along with very high 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values ramping into the 50 to 80 knot range. These factors should
support some very limited severe risk of severe winds getting
mixed down with the storms. Surface winds will likely be too
strong to support a tornado risk so early on.
The front moves through very fast with a loosely congealed squall
line hitting the western CWA by 9 or 10 AM. It will scrape east,
hitting the hwy 165 corridor around lunch time before moving out
to east Louisiana by 6 or so PM.
With the line, expect strong damaging wind gusts and spinup
tornadoes. There is a decent enough amount of CAPE to help balance
the extreme shear expected in the area, so those two severe
hazards cannot be highlighted enough. However, if shower activity
ahead of the line eats up the CAPE, that will limit severe
potential.
Out of an abundance of caution for outdoor festivities Tuesday,
plan for severe weather for your area in the aforementioned
timeframe mentioned above.

Winds should drop off drastically after the frontal passage,
becoming westerly around 10 MPH Tuesday afternoon and evening.
They'll pick up again from the northwest by Wednesday morning.

TLDR... So, for Mardi Gras / Fat Tuesday. Expect very strong
winds from the south or southeast ahead of the front. Some showers
will be possible in the morning with a few embedded stronger
thunderstorms in the mix through lunchtime. The line is expected
to be in southeast Texas counties in the mid morning. It will
move east, reaching the hwy 165 corridor around lunch, exiting
into east LA by about 6 PM.
Plan for strong non-thunderstorm winds ahead of the front and
outside of thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts and quick, fast
moving spin up tornadoes in the line as well as hail with the
line.
Although this threat could be limited if showers eat up all the
energy in the mid to late morning, plan your outdoor events with
severe in mind! Winds will turn to the west and will drop in speed
after the front passes.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

The longterm period starts off with a warming trend as high
pressure sits to the east, southerly flow returns and the ambient
airmass moderates.

Warmth doesn't last long as the next weather system appears to
make its way across the central US late in the period. As the trof
moves across Saturday and Sunday, it shouldn't cause much in the
way of a severe risk, at least as of this moment it doesn't appear
to pack much of a punch. Guidance paints the trough as a very
positively- tilted system with a jet max already moving off into
the eastern seaboard by Sunday morning. Little forcing and minimal
moisture return will result in a lack-luster fropa through the
next weekend.

Cool-ish temperatures return by Sunday daytime and into Monday. No
major issues anticipated with freezing.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

This afternoon we stay VFR with ceilings and visibility. Light
rain showers in central LA are dissipating. We could see a few
small showers along the I-10 corridor, but not worth mentioning
at this point. Winds will be increasing this evening thanks to the
tightening pressure gradient. Winds will be gusting to 30 kt or
greater after 12z Tuesday across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Elevated east to southeast winds will persist through Monday.
Winds will strengthen further and become gusty from Monday into
Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops across the
plains. The strong onshore flow will persist until passage of a
cold front during the day Tuesday, with gusts to gale force
possible prior to frontal passage. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with a few strong to
severe storms possible. Winds will become westerly then
northwesterly through midweek, then followed by an onshore flow
resuming by late in the week.

Strong onshore flow will also exacerbate high tide values and 1.5
to 2.0 feet MHHW is expected along coastal southeast Texas and
Louisiana. This has resulted in a Coastal Flood Advisory issued
for these areas.

Watch for an upgrade to the Gale Watch later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  58  73  47 /  20  20 100   0
LCH  72  63  75  50 /  10  20 100   0
LFT  73  61  78  51 /   0  10 100   0
BPT  73  65  78  50 /  10  30  90   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ073-
     074-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ615.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-
     432-435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ450-470.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ452-455-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ475.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15