Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weakness moving overhead and area moisture will keep scattered
  rain and storm chances in the forecast today and tomorrow.

- Tropical wave will move into southeast Texas Saturday. Heavy
  downpours are likely on Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, no
  tropical impacts.

- A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of
  the week, dropping precip chances and allowing for higher temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The dog days of summer are here. Hot and humid weather with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next
week. At the surface, high pressure in the Gulf will help limit
convection, while aloft a broad trough will continue to create an
unsettled pattern.

The influence from the upper-level disturbance will start to
lessen today and tomorrow as high pressure builds in from the
east. As the ridge builds in, showers and thunderstorms will
become more isolated in amount and coverage, with most convection
limited to the coastal areas,forming along the sea breeze. The
center of the ridge will remain to our east, and while it will
limit convection, it won’t be strong enough to stop it entirely.
Generally, we will keep PoPs around 50% south of I-10 and around
20% north of I-10.

Through the weekend, temperatures will slowly rise with highs in
the mid to upper 90s area-wide. Overnight lows won’t provide much
relief either, as they will remain in the mid to upper 70s as
well. Heat index values will be in the triple digits everyday so
make sure to stay hydrated and cool!

Moving to the tropics, the NHC has highlighted an Invest area in
the Bay of Campeche. Currently, the system has a 20% chance of
development, but it is moving towards a favorable wind shear
environment (>15 knots) with warm SST above 78 degrees F. With the
above-mentioned ridge building to our west, this system will
remain well south of our area, and if any development does occur,
it will mainly impact south Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The long-term forecast looks like the short-term forecast.
Temperatures will be the main concern day to day, with heat index
values routinely reaching the triple digits. While it doesn’t look
like we will reach our heat advisory criteria of 108F, heat
precautions should be at the top of mind, especially in the
afternoon when kids are out of school. Make sure to look before
you lock and take plenty of breaks from the heat!

Weather-wise, we will be looking at afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along the coast and isolated convection farther
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain the main concern for
all terminals in the short and long-term forecast. PROB30 TSRA or
VCTS will remain in the forecast during daytime. Amendments should
be expected to cover the impacts from pop-up showers and
thunderstorms. After sunset, convection will fade. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions are expected with winds from the south
around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Background winds are light, less than 10 knots, from the south as a
ridge pushes in from the east. Waves are slightly higher than
guidance expects, between 2 and 4 feet, with a short period around
6 seconds.

In the forecast, we are focusing on two main impacts. The first is
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the lake, bays, and
inland coastal zones. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be
locally higher, and strong thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. The
second is a tropical Invest area in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC
currently gives the system a low chance of development (20%). If
this system develops, we can expect swells to impact our area, so
make sure to keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Despite high KBDI values (above 600 for most of central
Louisiana), high minimum RH values and near-normal rainfall
amounts this summer have limited fires. Over the next 5 days,
rainfall chances will decrease for central Louisiana but will
remain high along the coast. Minimum RH values will remain near
50% with light winds. Overall fire danger will stay on the low end
for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  95  74 /  50  20  40  10
LCH  92  78  93  78 /  40  10  50  10
LFT  91  78  93  77 /  40  10  50   0
BPT  92  77  92  77 /  50  10  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

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