Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
  from this afternoon through Wednesday. The higher chances will
  come Thursday along with a better chance for severe storms.

- Warmer temperatures and decreasing chances for thunderstorm
  activity are expected this weekend into early next week.

- Late next week rain chances could increase as sun-
  tropical/monsoonal moisture moves northward into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Scattered high based convection is expected to develop across
eastern Colorado, western Kansas and into Western Nebraska late
this afternoon and then should end later this evening. It appears
that gusty winds will be the main threat with any of the stronger
cores. Winds aloft are weak and mid-level lapse rates are marginal,
so hail seems unlikely in this environment. PWATS remain on the high
side and could see some locally heavy downpours in addition to the
gusty winds. Otherwise the heat advisory will be allowed to expire
at 8pm CDT as temperatures/heat index values cool below the 100
degree threshold.

A stronger shortwave will drop from the northern Rockies and into
the Dakotas Wednesday. WAA aloft develops ahead of this system late
tonight across northwest Nebraska. This should lead to early
develoment of elevated showers/thunder toward sunrise Wednesday
morning. This activity is expected to spread into the Sandhills and
northern Nebraska my midday. This activity will likely remain sub-
severe. After noon, surface based instability increases across
southwest Nebraska into central portions of the state. Winds aloft
will increase as the shortwave moves into the Dakotas during the
afternoon. Surfaced based convection looks to initiate across
southwest Nebraska mid to late afternoon, with the activity quickly
moving northeastward through the instability axis across
central/eastern Nebraska. A swath of severe wind gusts may accompany
the storms as they congeal across portions of southwestern and
especially central Nebraska late afternoon/early evening.

Thursday should be fairly quiet weatherwise. A weak cold front will
cross the area Wednesday night with surface high pressure located
across the area Thursday morning. The high will gradually shift
eastward by Thursday afternoon with winds turning back to
southeasterly. It appears that any upslope convection should remain
west of the area into Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Upper level ridging is forecast to build from the southern into the
central plains Friday and into the weekend. With the center of the
ridging located across the central plains by early next week,
thunderstorm chances will steadily decrease Friday through into the
first of next week. The heat on the other hand will steadily
increase. It will remain rather humid with the heat, and heat
advisory criteria could be met across parts or all of the area.
Later next week, rain chances appear to increase once again. Sub-
tropical/monsoonal moisture looks to flow northward as the upper
level ridging shifts slightly eastward. This could potentially lead
to some locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

Main concerns will focus on the threat for thunderstorms tonight
and again Wednesday afternoon. For tonight...low-leve focus for
development is currently invof GRN/CDR/AIA area with expectation
that any activity will track east. The environment is not overly
supportive of sustained convection so do not anticipate impacts
from this round. Tonight, broad warm advection will drive
overnight activity across mainly central Nebraska but impacts at
LBF/VTN are possible. Confidence in direct impacts are low so
will cover with a VCTS mention for now in the early morning
hours.

Then for the daytime Wednesday, a surface boundary will stall
across the Sandhills and could potentially lead to at least
isolated convection as early as late morning. Believe this
threat is greatest across northern Nebraska and so have
introduced a VCTS at VTN with a couple hour lag for LBF. Have
covered more robust convection at both terminals with a PROB30
as precise placement of the surface boundary and resulting
convective initiation is somewhat in question. Potential
magnitude of impacts is greatest at LBF and could persist beyond
the end of the valid forecast period but confidence in this is
limited.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ006-007-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 /240 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening across
mainly western Nebraska. An isolated severe storm or two could
produce wind gusts up to around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Thursday night across
the area. A few severe storms are possible late Wednesday afternoon
into the evening. Heavy rain, hail, and strong winds will be the main
threats.

Hot temperatures are expected to develop across the area this
weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

NEZ004-230100-
Sheridan NE-
621 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 620 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Hay Springs, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Maria, Intersection of Beaver Creek Road and White Clay Creek
Road, and Metcalf State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 10246 4280 10230 4267 10277 4277 10278
      4278 10277 4279 10279 4280 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 236DEG 6KT 4279 10261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ