Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential the next few days continues to be the main
  focus.

- Locally heavy rainfall appears possible Monday night.

- Heat becomes a concern by the of the week...especially by
  Friday and Saturday when highs in the 90s to lower 100s are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A couple of different areas we are watching for the development of
convection late this afternoon and evening. The most certain area
will be across the Panhandle, eventually spreading into western
Nebraska and perhaps farther eastward overnight. A sustained area of
theta-e advection has been established across the Panhandle, with
southeast low-level flow maintaining mid 60s dew points.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s this afternoon, and with
steepening mid-level lapse rates, strong surface based CAPE has been
the result. Expect storms to develop across the higher terrain of
eastern Wyoming and then strengthen as they move into the favorable
western Nebraska environment. DCAPE is exceeding 1500 J/KG in spots
and strong wind gusts appear to be the biggest concern as storms
move eastward this evening. Some of the CAMs suggest wind gusts in
excess of 65 mph; mainly west of Highway 83. A few instances of
large hail will be possible as well.

The second area for possible development will be across southern
South Dakota and/or far northern Nebraska. A warm front has been
reinforced across this area from early convection. Seeing some
cumulus starting to develop across this area. If storms can develop
in this environment, supercell structures will be likely as they
turn to the south. If these materialize they would likely merge
across the Sandhills this evening with the convection moving in from
the west. If storms due indeed manage to develop, then all severe
weather modes would be possible.

On Monday, a shortwave will be rotating eastward across Wyoming on
the northern fringe of the southern Rockies upper level ridging. At
the surface, an inverted surface trough should extend northeast to
southwest through the heart of the area (from roughly O'Neill to
Ogallala). As the shortwave approaches in the afternoon, large scale
lift will overspread the area. Storms will likely form across the
Panhandle as the lift arrives, with additional more isolated storms
possibly developing near the surface trough. Storms appear they will
organize into a forward propagating MCS across western Nebraska
early in the evening, moving eastward into central Nebraska by mid
to late evening. Strong, possibly damaging win winds will be likely
as the MCS surges eastward through the evening. Instances of large
hail and even a tornado cannot be ruled out Monday evening. Heavy
rainfall could also materialize. In fact, the ECWMF Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) continues to advertise a possible heavy rain event.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

More rainfall and storms are possible Tuesday as another shortwave
crosses the area. The severe weather threat seems much lower Tuesday
compared to Monday. Abundant cloud cover is expected with the area
north of a stationary front that will be located to our south in KS.
This would be where the better focus for severe is expected.

Heights will rise as ridging aloft builds across the western CONUS
Wednesday through the week. This upper level ridging will translate
eastward across the region Thursday through Saturday. This will
likely bring an end to the severe weather/convection threat but
increase the heat threat. Temperatures and heat indicies reach
near advisory levels (>100 degrees) Friday and Saturday across
portions of the area. The ridge appears to begin to break down
Sunday into the first of next week. Overall looks to be a brief
period of hot weather...as temperatures should cool some with
the break down in the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow evening. A line of storms progresses from west
this evening into tonight, with brief MVFR visibilities and
gusty, erratic winds expected. These storms exit the area
tonight, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain southerly through tonight
at 10 to 15kts. A frontal boundary will then begin to move into
the area tomorrow afternoon, with a wind shift from south to
north into tomorrow evening expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
318 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 /218 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms become possible by early to
mid-evening across much of western Nebraska. Primary concern will be
damaging wind gusts with secondary concerns being large hail and
brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are again possible Monday along a
front stalled across western Nebraska. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado or two are the main concerns. Storm coverage increases
Monday evening, with rounds of rain and thunderstorms through
Tuesday that could drop heavy rainfall totaling one to two inches.

Temperatures will climb for the latter half of the week. Afternoon
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear possible each day Thursday
through Saturday with heat indices approaching or in the triple
digits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Taylor

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
919 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Crescent Lake Nwr  41.76N 102.44W
06/15/2025  M54 MPH          Garden             NE   Mesonet

            Mesonet station RESN1 Crescent Lake.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
924 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ESE Lemoyne           41.25N 101.73W
06/15/2025  M62 MPH          Keith              NE   Public

            Anemometer measured 62mph wind gust.

&&

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
926 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Lemoyne            41.27N 101.81W
06/15/2025  M74 MPH          Keith              NE   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
927 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Ogallala                41.13N 101.72W
06/15/2025  M68 MPH          Keith              NE   Mesonet

&&

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
932 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SE Ogallala           41.09N 101.66W
06/15/2025  M64 MPH          Keith              NE   Mesonet

&&

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