Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, along with
  thunderstorms possible across north central Nebraska, a few
  which could be strong.

- Warmer temperatures expected Wednesday through Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Surface low pressure has deepened to near 994mb near Denver at
20Z, with low pressure extending north into southeast Wyoming
and south into southeast Colorado. Southerly winds 15 to 30 mph
across southwest and central Nebraska with dewpoints in the mid
50s to near 60. Stratus remains in place east of Gordon through
North Platte, with clearing to the west. Imperial was at 83 and
Ogallala and Grant 81, with the warmest temperatures at 20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Tonight, there is the potential for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms this evening. A deep upper trough will
advance toward the Four Corners region early this evening. This
will produce deep cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado into the
southern Nebraska panhandle. Abundant moisture will be in place
across Nebraska. Stratus has cleared out across far southwest
Nebraska and the southeast panhandle. Strong heating underway
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far southwest
Nebraska reaching the low 80s. Surface winds are shown be be
backed to a more southeasterly early this evening over the
southeast Panhandle, which will be area where low-level
convergence and a strong differential heating boundary will
develop. This may result in isolated severe storm initiation.
further east, across southwest Nebraska, a stronger capping
inversion for recent stratus may inhibit storm development.
However, while confidence in occurrence of storms as well as
locations may be low, this will likely be an impactful event
should storms develop. Deep layer shear from 40 to 50kts and
surface-based CAPEs from 2000-3000 J/KG are shown across the
southern panhandle and southwest Nebraska early evening. This
will be sufficient for supercells with all modes of severe
weather possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a
tornado or two near any storms with localized backed surface
winds. The latest CAMs also indicate storms in the western
Panhandle moving into the northwest Sandhills mid to late
evening. Storm chances will increase north central Nebraska
after midnight, with the severe threat expected to diminish.

Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough will move through during
the morning, bringing gusty westerly winds to 20 to 35 mph in
the afternoon. An upper trough moving across the Northern
Plains. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
across north central Nebraska. Strong deep layer shear will be
present, and despite dewpoints in the low 40s, a few strong
storms are possible across east of Highway 83 in north central
Nebraska during the afternoon and early evening.

Much drier air with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 30s
will combine with the strong winds to create elevated fire
weather conditions, mainly south of Highways 2 and 91.

Showers will end Monday night as the system moves east as
northerly winds diminish. Lows overnight will fall into the mid
to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Cooler and dry Tuesday in the mid 60s behind the cold front.
The next opportunity for showers and storms will be Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, as an upper trough moving across
the Northern Plains drives a cold front into and trough the
area. Highs in the low 70s Wednesday cool to the mid and upper
60s Thursday. Warmer in the Wednesday through Sunday, with low
chances for showers and storms Saturday into Sunday, as an upper
trough deepens across the western U.S. bringing southwesterly
flow aloft to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

There will isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late
evening hours, mainly across north central Nebraska. LLWS at
KLBF 03Z through 06Z with VFR ceilings late evening. Could see a
period of -TSRA pass between 06Z-09Z. Southerly winds gusting
to 27KT this evening will shift to the west and be light by 09Z.
Westerly winds will strengthen by 18Z, gusting to around 25KT
during the afternoon.

At KVTN, Mainly VFR ceilings tonight. have a prevailing -TSRA
05Z-08Z with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage
across north central Nebraska. Southerly winds gusting to 27KT
this evening will shift to the west and be light by 08Z.
Westerly winds will strengthen by 18Z, gusting to around 30KT
during the afternoon.

 &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
327 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 /227 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible by late
afternoon lasting into the evening across western and north central
Nebraska. The main hazard will be large hail, with a secondary
hazard of damaging winds, a tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions return on Monday afternoon across
the area due to gusty westerly winds and low relative humidity.

There is also the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm
across far north central Nebraska Monday afternoon into early
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
428 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025

NEZ004-022-023-035-272300-
Sheridan NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-Garden NE-
428 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ARTHUR...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTHERN GARDEN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 427 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 26 miles north of Oshkosh,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Rackett, Patterson
Lake, Deer Lake, Britton Lake, Wild Horse Flats, Richardson Lake,
Mumper, Herman Lake, Jerry Lake, Adams Flats, Tralnor Lake, and
Bourquim Hill.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 114 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for the Panhandle
of and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 10229 4165 10196 4161 10260 4170 10264
      4174 10264 4174 10266 4176 10267 4180 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 234DEG 32KT 4178 10247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH