Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening, potential for a strong to severe storms

- Hot temperatures Monday and Tuesday with heat indices above
  100 on Monday

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected
  Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The main concern in the short term is the chance for a
strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A frontal
boundary draped across portions of western Nebraska and the
Sandhills will provide the main focus for storm initiation this
afternoon. The greatest timeframe for storm development will
likely be after 3pm with storms lingering to 8pm with the
initial development expected across the northern to northwest
Sandhills in the vicinity of the trof/dry line, where although
weakly forced, the best lift exist, with storms moving into a
more favorable environment east of the boundary. Dewpoints ahead
of the front are in the upper 60s to 70s, with steep lapse
rates and MU CAPE values of 3000 J/kg +. There is also a warm
front across the Sandhills which will be a focus for additional
development. Confidence is medium in large hail greater than 2
inches across the Sandhills along with potential for strong
winds. Can't rule out a tornado/landspout threat along the
boundary but confidence is low. There is also a tornadic
potential across the warm front boundary in northern Nebraska.
Expect thunderstorm to start to diminish mid evening, generally
after 8pm.

As for Monday, expect temperatures to reach the 90s across all of
western and north central Nebraska on Monday. The combination of
dewpoints in the 70s with 90 degree temperatures will lead to heat
indices of over 100 and have issued a Heat Advisory for Monday
afternoon into early evening. There is also the potential for
additional storms in the afternoon and evening that could be strong
to severe. Storm development looks to be more scattered to
widespread as large scale forcing will provide sufficient lift for
storm development. Large hail and strong winds will be the main
concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For Tuesday temperatures will again be in the 90s as the
upper level ridge remains in place across the central CONUS. Across
the southern and eastern CWA dewpoints are expected to reach the
upper 60s and potentially into the lower 70s. There is the potential
and additional heat headline may be needed for Tuesday as well and
will continue to monitor. There will again be additional chances for
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening with the
potential for some of those to become strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will impact northern
Nebraska this evening, including near or at KVTN terminal.
Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop across the
southern Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Thunderstorms are
expected to be out of the forecast area by late evening.
Thunderstorms that impact terminals, may have large hail and
erratic strong winds should a storm move over the area. Low
clouds and patchy fog may move back into north central Nebraska
late tonight into early Monday with MVFR or possibly lower
conditions through mid morning. VFR conditions should return by
late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Monday for NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-069>071.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
424 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
424 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 /324 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms possible through mid-
evening across much of western and north central Nebraska. The main
threats will be hail and damaging winds and a tornado can't be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Friday across the area. On
Monday and Tuesday, a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms
are possible across the entire outlook area from late afternoon into
the evening. Beyond Tuesday night, the severe threat is uncertain.

Very warm temperatures return on Monday and Tuesday with heat
indices approaching 100 across portions of north central and into
central Nebraska. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday from 1pm
to 8pm CT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
535 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Hail             2 S Nenzel              42.90N 101.10W
07/20/2025  E0.75 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0524 PM     Hail             7 S Nenzel              42.83N 101.10W
07/20/2025  M1.50 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

0524 PM     Hail             7 S Nenzel              42.82N 101.11W
07/20/2025  E1.50 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

0526 PM     Hail             9 S Nenzel              42.79N 101.12W
07/20/2025  E1.50 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Hail             10 S Nenzel             42.78N 101.10W
07/20/2025  M1.75 Inch       Cherry             NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
547 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Hail             10 S Nenzel             42.79N 101.12W
07/20/2025  E1.25 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
641 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

NEZ005-094-210030-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
641 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Merritt Reservoir, or 23 miles southwest of Valentine, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir and Anderson Bridge State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 113 and 132.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4275 10110 4286 10084 4275 10058 4256 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 301DEG 12KT 4272 10095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown