Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms is expected tonight
across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska with damaging winds and
hail being the main threats.

- Drier conditions return Monday through Tuesday with near to
slightly below normal temperatures.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Tuesday night with near daily
chances through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Severe weather continues tonight as thunderstorms develop across
Wyoming and eastern Colorado by late afternoon. These storms will
push eastward throughout the evening entering the forecast area by
early evening. As these storms encounter an environment with plenty
of instability (CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates) ,
they have the potential to quickly become severe. Timing of severe
storms looks to be mainly between 7pm CT and 11pm CT, although a
stronger storm or two may initiate earlier or last longer.
Greatest threats will be large hail initially as the storms
remain discrete. This will be short lived as storms congeal and
form a line and damaging winds (over 70 mph possible) become the
main threat. This line of storms will then push southeastward
across southwest Nebraska before exiting by sunrise Monday
morning. There is still some inconsistency in the latest CAMs
models in the exact placement of the strongest storms, but the
general thinking with regards to greatest instability will be
across the eastern Panhandle and across southwest Nebraska,
before exiting into south central Nebraska.

In addition to strong winds and hail, another potential threat will
be some locally heavy rainfall. While widespread flash flooding is
not anticipated, with QPF amounts in some locations over an inch and
PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, some low lying areas or
small streams may see some brief rises or ponding of water. With the
relatively fast movement of these storms through our region,
not expecting training of storms to increase flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Upper level ridging will begin to build across the western US by
Monday morning bringing a return to quieter and drier weather for
the first part of the week as surface high pressure builds into the
central Plains. In addition to drier weather, this ridge will also
herald in some cooler, slightly below to near normal temperatures.
Expect highs to rise into the mid 80s on Monday rising into the
upper 80s on Tuesday.

Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will return on
Tuesday night lasting into next weekend. While confidence in
locations of impact and timing is low, the latest guidance suggest a
greater probability of widespread convection on Friday and Friday
night as a cold front gets dragged across the region. At this time,
though, the severe potential is low, but a stronger storm or two
cannot be ruled out with hail and strong wind gusts being the main
threats. Will continue to monitor severe potential over the next few
days as models get a better handle on the environment.

In addition, temperatures will also steadily rise back into the mid
90s by Friday as warm air advection pushes 850 mb temperatures in
the 25 to 30 C range into western and north central Nebraska. The
cold front Friday night will usher in a cooler airmass for the
beginning of the weekend with highs dropping back to near normals
(mid to upper 80s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the region this
evening, ending late tonight. Winds will be variable and gusty
in and near any thunderstorms, otherwise winds will be generally
less than 10 kts. North winds will increase during the day
Monday at 10-20 kts with VFR to prevail.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 /237 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is expected this
evening across western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Large hail
and damaging winds (70 mph or greater) are possible with the
strongest storms. Localized flooding of low lying areas and small
streams could also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through Friday night. The
threat for severe weather is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1006 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NEZ004-022>024-035-036-094-300345-
Sheridan NE-Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
Western Cherry NE-Garden NE-
1006 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ARTHUR...SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...
GRANT...WESTERN HOOKER...NORTHEASTERN GARDEN...NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON
AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT/945 PM MDT/...

At 1006 PM CDT/906 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles northwest of
Whitman to Hyannis to 12 miles south of Ashby. Movement was southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Arthur, Hyannis, Swan Lake, Whitman, Ashby, Duluth, Swede Lake,
Cogill Lake, Green Lake, Whitman Road crossing the North Branch of
the Middle Loup River, Three Mile Lake, Pratt Lake, Carr Lake,
Haythorn Lake, Lena, Sand Puddin Lake, Kincaid Lake, McKeag, Calora,
and East Cody Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 129 and 178.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 115 and 181.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 165 and 176.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for the Panhandle of, north central and west central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 10115 4166 10133 4142 10176 4190 10219
      4234 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 316DEG 24KT 4223 10174 4200 10177 4186 10200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     9 SSE Hay Springs       42.56N 102.62W
06/29/2025                   Sheridan           NE   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             10 E Gordon             42.81N 102.01W
06/29/2025  M2.00 Inch       Cherry             NE   Trained Spotter

            Report via social media.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1106 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NEZ023-024-035-036-300445-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
1106 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ARTHUR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN HOOKER AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT/1045 PM MDT/...

At 1106 PM CDT/1006 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles east of Swan Lake, or 23 miles northeast of
Arthur, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tryon, Big Lamunyon Flats, Schnick Lake, Sand Beach Lake, and East
Cody Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 188 and 205.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 32 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 10146 4188 10133 4168 10075 4140 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 304DEG 29KT 4177 10132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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