Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
329 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  One more warm and relatively dry day across the forecast area
   for Tuesday, before a more unsettled pattern commences
   midweek.

-  Persistent, low amplitude southwesterly flow aloft, combined
   with a stalled out frontal boundary, will lead to daily
   precipitation chances Wednesday through Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over northwestern
Wisconsin. A trough extended to the southeast of this low into
central Illinois. East of this feature, ridging extended from
the Mid-Atlantic States, north into northern Quebec. South of
this ridge, high pressure was anchored off the eastern coast of
Florida. West of the Wisconsin low, low amplitude ridging
extended from northwestern Nebraska into western North Dakota.
West of this feature, a trough of low pressure was present from
the Idaho Panhandle, south into northeastern Nevada and
northwestern Utah. A lead shortwave was present from south
central Montana into western Wyoming. The leading edge of this
shortwave had approached northeastern Wyoming this afternoon and
abundant mid level cloudiness was present from western South
Dakota into western Nebraska. At the surface this afternoon, low
pressure was located over northwestern South Dakota. A cold
front extended southwest of the low into northeastern Wyoming,
while a surface trough extended south into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Isolated showers with a lightning strike or two were
progressing from the panhandle into the western and northwestern
Sandhills this afternoon. In the vicinity of the showers, wind
gusts had been reported in the 40 to 55 MPH range this
afternoon. Winds out ahead to this feature were from the
southwest this afternoon and were gusting up to xxx at xxx.
Temperatures as of 3 PM CT ranged from 71 degrees at Gordon to
79 degrees at Broken Bow and Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Ongoing showers, will traverse most of the forecast area,
exiting to the east by mid evening. Will keep pops isolated as
most of this activity isn't reaching ground level and only trace
amounts are expected. Winds in the vicinity of these showers
remain gusty and will continue to highlight this via slack as
this threat should continue through mid evening. In the wake of
these showers skies will clear overnight, allowing temperatures
to fall off into the lower to middle 30s. On Tuesday, minimum RH
will fall off to around 20 percent during the afternoon hours.
However winds will be light tomorrow with a diffuse frontal
boundary off to the south. This will lead to easterly winds over
southern Nebraska and variable winds further north into central
and northern Nebraska Tuesday morning. Winds will then shift
around to the south and southeast Tuesday afternoon, remaining
light at around 10 MPH. In light of the low RH Tuesday
afternoon, light winds will limit any fire weather concerns
Tuesday. Tuesday night, weak mid level warm air advection will
transition east from Colorado into southern Nebraska and Kansas.
Feel the bulk of the threat for showers and storms will be off
to the south in Kansas INVOF the diffuse frontal boundary.
However, cannot rule out at least an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in the west and southern portions of the forecast
area Tuesday night. Forecast QPF's will be light so will keep
pops mainly slight chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

The upper level pattern will become more southwesterly
Wednesday, sharpening the frontal boundary from SW Nebraska into
northeastern Nebraska. Low level moisture will flow into the
southern Half of Nebraska Wednesday with modest 40s to lower 50s
dew points pushing into the southern half of the state. By late
afternoon/evening, mid level warm air advection will begin to
approach the high plains from Colorado. The latest NAM soln
develops a corridor of SB CAPES in excess of 1000 J/KG Wednesday
afternoon over southern Perkins, southern Lincoln, Chase, Hayes
and Frontier counties which is INVOF the frontal boundary. With
deep layer shear of 40 to 45 KTS depicted Wednesday afternoon,
we could see a strong to severe storm over SW Nebraska. This
appears to be highly dependent on where the frontal boundary
subsides as this will be the northern extent of the best low
level moisture. No doubt, the location of this boundary will
change over the next 24 to 48 hours and will need to be
monitored. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be
more probable Wednesday night as the main shortwave lifts
across Nebraska. In the wake of the disturbance Wednesday night,
the before mentioned frontal boundary, will remained stalled
out across the area into Friday. This will lead to cooler
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday and
Friday with a continued threat for showers. Temperatures will
then warm into 60s and 70s for Saturday through Monday as winds
shift around to the south and southeast. This will allow
additional low level moisture to work into the region,
increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon across western and southwest
Nebraska with winds out of the northwest around 10 to 15 kts and
gust of 25 kts or greater. There will be an isolated chance of
rain showers across the northern Sandhills this afternoon. Winds
will then shift to the west around 10 kts for the evening, then
switch back to the northwest Tuesday morning around 5 to 10 kts.
Skies will be mostly clear with some mid level clouds moving in
across the northern Sandhills in the afternoon with the rain
showers.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-209-210-219.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-222045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
331 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 /231 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely through mid evening for
most of western and north central Nebraska.

Showers with an isolated thunderstorm are possible through mid
evening, mainly north of Interstate 80. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 MPH
are possible, mainly over north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday across the
area.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night
across the area. A few strong to severe storms may be possible
Wednesday night, and may contain hail and strong wind gusts near and
south of Highway 2.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Bingham           42.03N 102.09W
04/21/2025  M59 MPH          Sheridan           NE   Mesonet

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

NEZ005-006-008-024>026-094-212130-
Brown NE-Hooker NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-Western Cherry NE-
Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
338 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHERRY...NORTHEASTERN
HOOKER...WESTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN BLAINE...THOMAS AND
NORTHWESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT/330 PM MDT/...

At 338 PM CDT/238 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Sicangu Village to near
Seneca. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine, Thedford, Halsey, Johnstown, Seneca, Purdum, Brownlee,
Norden, Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, Elsmere, Crookston, Wood
Lake, Willow Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Smith Falls State
Park, Koshopah, Highway 97 crossing the Niobrara River, Moon Lake,
Sparks, Long Lake State Wildlife Management Area, and Highway 83
crossing the North Loup River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 185 and 232.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 191 and 232.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 123 and 141.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 141 and 222.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 1 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 10008 4188 10097 4300 10076 4300 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 261DEG 12KT 4299 10060 4197 10086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

NEZ035-036-057>059-069-212115-
Chase NE-Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...PERKINS...
KEITH...NORTH CENTRAL CHASE...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MCPHERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT/315 PM MDT/...

At 340 PM CDT/240 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northeast of
Keystone to 9 miles northeast of Venango. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Grant, Sutherland, Hershey, Paxton, Brule, Madrid, Venango,
Elsie, Sarben, Keystone, Sutherland Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Roscoe, Kingsley Dam, Brandon, Coker, O'Fallons, Nevens, Broganville,
and Big Bald Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 50 and 100.
 Highway 92 near mile marker 138.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 10 and 15.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 116 and 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 10205 4096 10205 4142 10154 4137 10078
      4062 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 278DEG 36KT 4132 10142 4087 10194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
411 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

NEZ005-008>010-025>028-037-038-059-212145-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Holt NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-
Rock NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
411 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...SOUTHERN
ROCK...LOUP...SOUTHERN BROWN...NORTHERN LINCOLN...EASTERN LOGAN...
WESTERN GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN HOLT...CUSTER...BLAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles south of Johnstown to 12 miles
southwest of Dunning to 7 miles southeast of Hershey. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Broken Bow, Burwell, Stapleton, Taylor, Brewster,
Arnold, Callaway, Sargent, Brady, Merna, Maxwell, Oconto, Anselmo,
Dunning, Comstock, Berwyn, Gandy, Lake Maloney State Recreation Area,
and Victoria Springs State Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 95 and 172.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 229 and 291.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 228 and 273.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 168 and 208.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 73 and 113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9915 4174 9921 4149 9923 4104 9977
      4105 10022 4088 10023 4104 10106 4167 10030
      4247 10009 4240 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 279DEG 78KT 4239 10002 4166 10021 4108 10091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH