Red Flag Warning 8, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Garden County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Grant County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Wheeler County, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1216 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible across
  western and north central Nebraska Monday afternoon into the
  early evening hours.

- Very warm temperatures Monday with near record highs.

- A weather system will impact the central plains Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Strong winds will accompany this system, however,
  precipitation amounts and precipitation modes are still in
  doubt.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Westerly winds have diminished and relative humidity values have
improved this evening which has allowed the Red Flag Warning to
expire. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday
afternoon due to low RH and strong winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure which
extended from Minnesota south into eastern Texas. Within this
trough, a strong shortwave trough extended from southern
Illinois south into western Mississippi. East of this trough,
ridging extended from Bermuda north into the Canadian Maritimes.
West of the trough, ridging was present from eastern Nevada,
north into the Idaho Panhandle. West of this ridge, a trough of
low pressure was present from the Gulf of Alaska south to
approximately 700 miles off the coast of northern California. At
the surface this afternoon, a warm front extended from eastern
South Dakota into central Nebraska. This boundary, served as a
wind shift line with westerly winds to the west and southerly
winds to the east of this feature. Skies were clear to mostly
clear this afternoon and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 50
degrees at O'Neill to 60 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Fire weather concerns and temperatures will be the main
forecast concerns over the first 36 hours of the forecast.
Ridging, currently over the western CONUS will transition east
over the next 24 hours, becoming anchored over the central and
northern Plains Monday afternoon. Surface low pressure will
develop overnight over northern South Dakota, leading to
westerly winds across the forecast area. Overnight lows will
bottom out in the lower to middle 30s with some readings near 40
in the north where winds may persist into the early morning
hours Monday. Surface low pressure will track southwestern
Minnesota Monday. Westerly winds will continue Monday with a
nice low level thermal ridge building into the area. With decent
mixing, downslope winds and H85 temps in the mid to upper
teens, highs should reach well into the mid to upper 70s with a
possible 80 degree reading in the south. This would be near a
record high for North Platte and Broken Bow with their daily
records of 82 and 83 respectively. The high res models, most
notably the 12z HRRR is indicating min RH around 10 percent
across the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. Wind gusts to
around 30 MPH appear likely along the SD/NE border per the HRRR
soln with 25 MPH gusts possible north of I-80. Further south,
winds are lighter and should remain below RFW criteria. With
this in mind, will hoist a fire weather watch for tomorrow late
morning into the early evening hours for areas north of
Interstate 80. A cold front will enter northern Nebraska Monday
night stalling across central or southern Nebraska on Tuesday.
Mid level lift will increase behind the front Monday night and
will mainly impact locations to the north of the forecast area.
However, some precipitation may develop along the Pine Ridge
late Monday night and have a slight chance mention of rain or
snow over far northern Sheridan County.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

The cold front will slowly migrate south into northern Kansas
and southeast Nebraska on Tuesday. Mid level forcing will
continue across the northwestern forecast area where some light
accumulating snow will fall. Elsewhere, light rain will be
possible in the west Tuesday morning with the threat
transitioning east Tuesday afternoon. Forcing will then
strengthen Tuesday night as surface low pressure deepens along
the front. This feature will then track across northern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa by Wednesday morning. A nice area of
deformation precipitation will develop from south central
Nebraska/northern Kansas into southeastern and eastern Nebraska
Wednesday. Temperatures behind the front will be cold enough to
support snow. It will also be very windy across the area.
Already the EC and GEFS ensemble winds have a good threat for
gusts above 50 MPH (>70% across a large portion of the CWA) with
the strongest winds generally over the eastern third of the
state. The latest NAM soln has a core of 75 KT H85 winds
extending from west of Beatrice to Blair Nebraska Wednesday
morning. The GFS is more "subdued" at 65 KTS. This is also INVOF
the deformation band of snow Wednesday. No doubt if the winds
even approach these levels, the combination of wind and snow
will lead to blizzard conditions in eastern Nebraska. For
western and north central Nebraska, all models, with the
exception of the latest NAM12 soln, keep most snow east and
south of the forecast area, effectively bypassing the forecast
area with minimal accumulations. The is also supported by the
latest ensemble blend of models which has the highest QPF's off
to the south and southeast of the forecast area. We will need to
monitor snow potential with this system closely as even a
limited amount of snow could cause significant visibility and
travel issues given the expected high winds. Behind the exiting
system, readings will rebound back into the 50s and 60s for the
end of the week. A couple of weak fast moving systems will bring
a limited threat for precipitation Friday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR conditions with just some high clouds expected over TAF
sites through Monday evening. Low level wind shear at KVTN 06z
until 16Z.

Winds aloft amplify considerably with low level wind shear
06Z until 16Z at KVTN. Low level wind shear will diminish with
onset of rapid heating and good mixing Monday morning with gusty
winds reaching the surface by 13Z at KVTN. Expect westerly
gusts will be around 28kt at KVTN but winds diminish quickly
heading further to the south so gusts are expected to remain
below 20kt at KLBF. Gusty conditions will continue through the
afternoon before diminishing quickly toward sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning
through this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209.

&&

UPDATE...Kulik
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
813 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171200-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
813 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 /713 PM MDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow from late
morning into the early evening hours for locations mainly along and
north of Interstate 80. Afternoon relative humidity will reach
around
10 percent with wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH.

A strong storm system will cross the Central Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strong winds are expected with this system. Snow
accumulations are still uncertain with this system as are impacts
from blowing snow. Persons should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts and statements relating to this weather system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.