Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight (level 2 of 5) risk is in place for much of western
  and north central Nebraska into this evening. Damaging winds
  and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

- Below average highs in the 70s to 80s are then expected for
  middle and late week, along with near daily threats for
  thunderstorms.

- The threat for severe weather late week into the weekend remains
  uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late this
afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous this evening .
Synoptically, a subtropical plume of moisture extends across
Arizona and Colorado into western Nebraska. A mid level
shortwave was indicated over central Colorado, which will lift
northeast across the area tonight. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen through the day across eastern Colorado and
northwest Kansas, with an associated warm front lifting into far
southwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Abundant low level
moisture in place north of this boundary, where east to
northeast winds exist and dewpoints as high as 70 to 75. The
greatest instability (SBCAPEs 3500-4500 J/kg) north of the warm
front across southwest into central Nebraska, along with the
best PWATs (above the 90th percentile climo) in the pre-
convective environment. Low level shear remains weak, though
increasing westerly flow aloft into this evening. Effective
shear does increase to 35-40kts across southwest into central
Nebraska by late afternoon to support organized storms this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorm development will likely become widespread
this evening, to form at least a few clusters. Any bowing
segments will lead to the greatest threat for damaging winds,
with guidance suggesting this occurring east of an Ogallala
through Hyannis line into central Nebraska.

Flash flooding will be another concern, as the widespread
coverage of storms in a very moist environment will likely lead
to locally heavy rainfall. High-res guidance suggests a swath
of 2-4" of rain possible across central portions of the forecast
area (mainly from near I80 north to Highway 2 and 91.

The main activity will exit much of the area after 09Z, while
continuing into eastern Nebraska and Iowa late.

Stratus develop in the wake of this system late tonight through
Wednesday morning, with a much cooler day due to persistent
cloudiness, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 70s.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible,
mainly across north central Nebraska.

Showers and storms may move in from the higher terrain
Wednesday evening, mainly west of Highway 83 overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A flattened upper ridge Thursday through Saturday will become
northwesterly Sunday through Tuesday. This will keep
temperatures below average to end the week, with highs remaining
in the 70s to low 80s. Thunderstorm chances will be limited in
coverage through Saturday, and mainly confined to the west.
Better chances across the area Saturday night through next
Tuesday across the area as deep layer shear and instability
increases to support some threat for strong to severe storms
across western Nebraska. Highs will return to the 80s Sunday and
Monday, with low 90s in the southwest by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are in progress across most of western and
north central Nebraska, with thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall
and gusty, erratic winds. Conditions may drop to MVFR in periods of
thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, conditions deteriorate to IFR
across portions of the region, as a low stratus deck builds in. With
the heavy rain this evening and light winds overnight, believe that
fog is likely to develop overnight in addition to the low ceilings.
Skies remain cloudy in the afternoon, but gradually begin to improve
to VFR conditions. Amendments may be needed in the short term to
better capture the scattered nature of thunderstorms this
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Richie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
410 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302115-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
410 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 /310 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across all
of western and north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms chances continue nearly each day Wednesday through
Monday. The threat for severe weather is low at this time, though
locally heavy rainfall will still be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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