Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Jackson, KY

183 
WGUS73 KJKL 170525
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
125 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

KYC025-051-071-119-129-131-133-153-159-193-195-170830-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250517T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Clay KY-Floyd KY-Knott KY-Lee KY-Leslie KY-Letcher
KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Perry KY-Pike KY-
125 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM EDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MARTIN, BREATHITT, EAST CENTRAL CLAY, 
FLOYD, KNOTT, SOUTHEASTERN LEE, NORTHERN LESLIE, LETCHER, SOUTHERN 
MAGOFFIN, PERRY AND PIKE COUNTIES...

At 125 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have 
fallen since 11 PM. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pikeville, Hazard, Prestonsburg, Jackson, Whitesburg, Hindman, 
  Hyden, Letcher, Estill, Bath, Jenkins, Coal Run Village, Elkhorn 
  City, Wheelwright, Fleming-Neon, Martin, Pippa Passes, Forest 
  Hills, Wayland and Vicco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 8358 3727 8352 3729 8355 3742 8353
      3750 8358 3751 8358 3764 8356 3765 8350
      3762 8350 3765 8345 3769 8230 3763 8221
      3765 8217 3755 8213 3754 8197 3728 8232
      3712 8272 3707 8273 3708 8358

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEOGERIAN

647 
WGUS73 KJKL 170822
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
422 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

KYC025-051-071-119-129-131-133-153-159-193-195-170832-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250517T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Clay KY-Floyd KY-Knott KY-Lee KY-Leslie KY-Letcher
KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Perry KY-Pike KY-
422 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MARTIN, BREATHITT, EAST 
CENTRAL CLAY, FLOYD, KNOTT, SOUTHEASTERN LEE, NORTHERN LESLIE, 
LETCHER, SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN, PERRY AND PIKE COUNTIES HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

The heavy rain has exited the area, and no additional flash flooding 
is expected; however, as runoff from previous heavy rainfall makes 
its way into larger creeks, streams, and rivers, high water and 
flooding in low lying areas will remain across the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 8358 3727 8352 3729 8355 3742 8353
      3750 8358 3751 8358 3764 8356 3765 8350
      3762 8350 3765 8345 3769 8230 3763 8221
      3765 8217 3755 8213 3754 8197 3728 8232
      3712 8272 3707 8273 3708 8358

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
817 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an enhanced to moderate risk of organized severe
  thunderstorms with significant severe weather possible this
  evening into tonight.

- After a break in rain chances on Saturday and Saturday night,
  shower/storm chances return at times through the middle of next
  week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Temperatures will be nearer to normal from Saturday through
  Tuesday, then are forecast to be below normal for Wednesday to
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 550 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025

Following the initial morning to early afternoon convection, a
couple of storms/attempts at redevelopment that have moved across
parts of southcentral KY have produced lightning and have not been
as robust. Recently MLCAPE is analyzed at 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the
northeastern and eastern counties where clouds and heating
following earlier activity began the latest. Meanwhile, MLCAPE is
analyzed in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range while MUCAPE ranges from
1000 J/kg east to 2500 to 3000 J/kg in Wayne County where heating
has been the most substantial and dewpoints are the highest. Shear
remains substantial generally in the 55 to 65KT range for
effective shear. Additional activity has developed upstream and
should evolve into the anticipated linear convection/QLCS later
this evening into the overnight.

Currently there is a lull in the activity other than the storm in
the western portion of the area. As the line approaches, an
increase in activity ahead of it seems probable over the next
couple or hours. RAP/SPC Mesoanalysis has the MLCAPE climbing to
roughly 2000 to 2500 J/kg with MUCAPE possibly increasing toward
3000 J/kg ahead of the linear convection over the next couple of
hours with effective shear in the 50 to 70KT range. Mid level
lapse rates are progged to increase as the evening progresses to
7 C/km or more over the next with low level lapse rates not as
steep. However, the main line should be well organized with a
strengthen cold pool while the steepening mid level lapse rates
indicate an increase in large hail potential in addition to a wind
threat. Any discrete cells that form ahead of linear convection
will pose a risk of all hazards, especially if they move along any
boundaries or differential heating boundaries in which case the
tornado potential would increase. Otherwise, with the anticipated
QLCS convection, a threat of wind gusts possibly to significant
levels (74+ mph) along with large hail and spin up tornadoes are
possible. The line should arrive over the next 3 to 5 hours from
the west with the convective complex crossing eastern KY into the
first half of the overnight hours.

The SPC Moderate risk in place for more western locations and
enhanced risk for the remainder of eastern KY remains valid given
the expected increasing parameter space and CAM and upstream
trends. Additional Watches are probable as the evening progresses.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threat, if additional lead
cells move over locations that were hit with heavy rain earlier in
the day (between I-64 and the Cumberland Pkwy to Hal Rogers Pkwy
and KY 80 corridors into Pike County). Also if additional lead
cells produce heavy rain and are immediately followed by the
QLCS/MCS/linear convective rain high water or flash flooding would
also be possible.

The axis of upper level ridging and height rises follow from
Saturday and into Saturday night as the actual cold front moves
through, with drier air filtering into the area. This will result
in much quieter weather for Saturday and Saturday night. A
decreasing gradient following rain from earlier today and tonight
should set the stage for valley fog on Saturday night, especially
for valley locations near and south of the Mountain Parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025

The period is expected to begin with the axis of upper level troughing
from eastern Canada into the Northeast to near the eastern
seaboard and the axis of upper level ridging from the Gulf into
portions of the Central Conus/Plains to MT and into Saskatchewan.
A shortwave trough or two is expected to be moving from the mid MS
and Lower OH to TN Valley areas toward the Southeast/Southern
Appalachians. Meanwhile at the same time, the axis of an upper
level trough is expected to extend from BC into the Great
Basin to Southwestern Conus. At the surface, the boundary that
will have crossed the area during the short term period will have
stalled from the Carolinas to the TN Valley to Ozark vicinity to
southeastern CO/OK panhandle vicinity to low pressure ahead of the
trough moving through parts of the western Conus. Along the
western part of that boundary a sfc low should be developing in
the lee of the Rockies as the period beings. Locally, the southern
end of a ridge of high pressure over Canada and into eastern KY.

Sunday, the initial shortwave trough should pass through the TN
Valley and parts of the OH Valley to the Southern Appalachians and
dampen and likely interact with the stalled boundary to the south
of eastern KY. Some showers or storms could affect more southern
locations in closer proximity of this boundary as the shortwave
passes. Otherwise, some height rises occur behind this shortwave
with the axis of upper ridging working towards the OH Valley and
then shifting east of eastern KY by Monday night. However, a
couple of shortwaves could cross the OH Valley and eastern KY from
later Sunday into Monday night and by the time ridge axis shifts
east, organizing low pressure tracking through the Central Conus
should send the boundary initially stalled south of eastern KY
into the region. Despite ridging possibly leading to times of
capping or some suppression of the coverage of convection, the
passing shortwaves and then the warm front approaching will lead
to chances for showers and thunderstorms at times as early as
later Sunday night and into Monday night. These chances could peak
diurnally on Monday and as the warm front potentially nears late
Monday night.

With the ridge axis having moved east  troughing initially over
the western Conus that will have moved into the Plains and then
the Central Conus should approach the MS Valley and eastern Conus
by midweek. Some height falls should occur by late Monday night or
Tuesday and continue into midweek. This will be preceded by sfc
low pressure tracking from the Central Conus to the OH Valley
through Tuesday night and Wednesday and then to the eastern
seaboard through Thursday night and then off the east coast
Friday. Uncertainty remains with the timing of the upper level
troughing into and across the eastern Conus from midweek into
the second half of next week and details and evolution of that
trough. Following the warm front lifting across the area by
midweek, a cold front should cross the area at midweek as well.
Some strong storms cannot be ruled out as the low pressure system
tracks across the OH Valley and eastern KY by later Tuesday into
Wednesday, especially if any destabilization can occur ahead of
the mid week cold front. Following recent rainfall, if additional
heavy rain were to occur during the first half to middle of next
week, that could become the bigger concern as highlighted by most
recent WPC Day 4 and Day 5 EROs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025

Conditions were primarily VFR at the start of the period, with the
exception of some occasional very isolated showers possibly
bringing sub-VFR conditions. Severe thunderstorms were occurring
to the west in central KY, and will move/develop eastward this
evening. The area of thunderstorms is forecast to shift
southeast through the JKL forecast area between about 01Z and 07Z
(while the individual severe storms move generally eastward). The
storms will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. They will
also have the potential to produce high winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. Rapid clearing is forecast behind the area of
thunderstorms around dawn. Winds will increase out of the west
southwest during the day Saturday, with gusts around 30 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-
080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
731 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-172345-
Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Martin-Pike-
731 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the area at times into tonight,
with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms expected. The most
widespread severe weather risk is this evening into the overnight.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns, but tornadoes
are also possible. Excessive rainfall could also result in instances
of high water or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Sunday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of hail, strong or
damaging winds, and flooding that occurs through tonight.

KYZ044-050>052-172345-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-
731 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...TORNADO WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the area at times into tonight,
with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms expected. The most
widespread severe weather risk is late this evening into the
overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns,
but tornadoes are also possible. Excessive rainfall could also result
in instances of high water or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of hail, strong or
damaging winds, and flooding that occurs through tonight.

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
840 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Whick                   37.42N 83.38W
05/16/2025                   Breathitt          KY   Public

            In or near Whick along KY 1110 trees and
            powerlines were reported to have been blown
            down. The event time is radar estimated.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
902 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ044-050>052-170130-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
902 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...BATH...
CENTRAL FLEMING AND WEST CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 901 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grassy Lick, or 8 miles west of Mount Sterling, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Marshall, Camargo, Sharpsburg, Salt
Lick, Fairview, Ramey, Pecks Ridge, Wyoming, Peasticks, Flat Creek,
Odessa, Bourbon Furnace, Pebble, Prewitt, Crooks, Bethel, Oakley, and
Ewington.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
105 and 132.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for east central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 8387 3846 8384 3812 8351 3798 8399
      3812 8408 3817 8399 3832 8384 3834 8384
      3834 8386 3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390
      3836 8392 3842 8395 3845 8398 3849 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 236DEG 49KT 3807 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

VORST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
924 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-170200-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Morgan KY-Bath KY-
924 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BATH...NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN...NORTHERN MENIFEE...ROWAN AND NORTHERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 924 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sudith, or near Frenchburg, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morehead, Frenchburg, Salt Lick, Wagner, Blairs Mills, Fannin Valley,
Cornwell, Elliottville, Rothwell, Olympia Springs, Yale, Christy,
Bangor, Cogswell, Ratlitt, Zilpo, Lytten, Pelfrey, Hamm, and Crix.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
136 and 140, and near mile marker 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for southeastern
and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8330 3821 8329 3819 8326 3820 8323
      3824 8322 3827 8317 3823 8312 3823 8309
      3818 8305 3820 8304 3821 8301 3817 8297
      3794 8371 3803 8379 3829 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 241DEG 51KT 3804 8364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

VORST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
944 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ058-059-069-108-111-112-114-170215-
Jackson KY-Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Owsley KY-Powell KY-
Wolfe KY-
944 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...NORTHERN
OWSLEY...SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL...NORTHERN JACKSON...WEST CENTRAL
BREATHITT...LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM
EDT...

At 944 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Foxtown, or near McKee, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beattyville, McKee, Booneville, Fincastle, Pilot, Travellers Rest,
White Ash, Leeco, Fillmore, Earnestville, Pine Ridge, Patsey, Ida
May, Delvinta, Alumbaugh, Evelyn, Tallega, Levi, Whisman, and See.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 32
and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for southeastern
and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8345 3739 8405 3754 8413 3784 8366
      3783 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 243DEG 50KT 3749 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

VORST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1104 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ109-110-112>115-117-170345-
Breathitt KY-Perry KY-Floyd KY-Knott KY-Owsley KY-Magoffin KY-
Leslie KY-
1104 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LESLIE...
SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...NORTHERN PERRY...WESTERN KNOTT...WEST CENTRAL
FLOYD...SOUTHERN BREATHITT AND SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES THROUGH
1145 PM EDT...

At 1104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lost Creek, or 7 miles southeast of Jackson, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Hindman, Buckhorn, Elic, Buck, Leburn, Vail, Hippo, Handshoe,
Shoal, Gunlock, Emmalena, Bearville, Daisydell, Orchard, Beech,
Bulan, Decoy, Bolyn, and Saul.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 54 and 59.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 1 and 19.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8302 3727 8357 3728 8356 3729 8357
      3729 8360 3734 8363 3736 8367 3737 8367
      3756 8325 3762 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 281DEG 36KT 3746 8332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1138 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

KYZ112>117-170430-
Clay KY-Breathitt KY-Perry KY-Knott KY-Owsley KY-Leslie KY-
1138 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LESLIE...SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
PERRY...KNOTT...SOUTHEASTERN BREATHITT AND CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 1230
AM EDT...

At 1138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from East McDowell to Sidell. Movement was south at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Manchester, Hindman, Hyden, Bath, Pippa Passes, Vicco,
Buckhorn, Elic, Big Fork, Cody, Hoskinston, Buck, Handshoe,
Brightshade, Carr Creek, Emmalena, Nealy, Bearville, and Goose Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 8364 3702 8374 3702 8377 3704 8378
      3703 8381 3720 8392 3751 8299 3744 8282
      3741 8283 3743 8279 3741 8276 3735 8276
      3731 8275 3729 8271 3727 8275 3725 8287
      3717 8298 3719 8301 3711 8306 3694 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 345DEG 26KT 3743 8271 3719 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF