Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances linger for much of this week, especially
  each afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through Wed, then
  moderate to about 10 degrees above normal on Thu and Fri - back
  closer to normal from Sat through Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025

Current surface analysis from across the CONUS shows a decaying
surface boundary moving northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Surface high pressure is parked over the Central Plains with several
perturbations moving through the Great Basin and Rockies. Locally,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the CWA with
temperatures in the upper-60s to lower-70s.

Through the afternoon and evening, these showers and storms will
persist but once solar radiation and instability building shuts off;
the showers and storms will begin to dissipate. Through the
overnight into Wednesday, the parent trough and upper-level closed
circulation, that's responsible for the showers, will begin to lift
to the northeast as height rises build overhead from upper-level
ridging over Texas. However, the upper-level circulation will still
be close enough to the area for Wednesday that the threat for
showers and storms will exist for Wednesday afternoon and evening
before surface high pressure arrives from the southwest. Surface
high pressure builds in for late Wednesday night and will persist
through the remainder of the period.

Overall, the forecast period is progged start as a wet and stormy
period but will finish on the dry side as surface high pressure
returns. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid-70s today
with overnight lows only falling to the upper-50s. Highs for
Wednesday are expected to be slightly warmer with values in the mid
to upper-70s with a few lower-80s across the Cumberland Plateau with
overnight lows dropping into the low to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the bulk of the long term portion of
the forecast. They all depict the opening of a broad trough
over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday while the system progresses to
the northeast through the rest of the week. This is upstream of
ridging sliding east and expanding over the central Gulf Coast
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a sharp trough will pivot through the
Upper Midwest encompassing the majority of model differences for
this period. The GFS suite is quicker, stronger, and further north
with the core of this trough than the ECMWF's operational and
ensemble runs. As this large wave passes it will bring 5h height
falls to Kentucky along with a brush by of its mid level energy
late Thursday into Friday. For the weekend, broad troughing will
hold forth over the Upper Midwest, northern Great Lakes, and south
central Canada while ridging is parked over the Gulf of America.
Between these dominant features, mid-level zonal flow will work
west to east through Kentucky while carrying periodic impulses.
Toward the end of the weekend, the Gulf ridge will reassert its
presence in the Deep South and push toward Kentucky. This brings
rising 5h heights to the JKL CWA along with northwest mid level
flow and just some weak impulses until perhaps later Monday. The
model spread supported using the NBM as the starting point with
minimal adjustments needed through the period - mainly to include
some radiational cooling based terrain distinction in temperatures
at night over the weekend.

Sensible weather features a damp start to the long term portion of
the forecast as a stacked and weakening sfc low will be lifting
into the Ohio Valley at mid week. Limited drying will follow that
night into Thursday, though a stronger system will be approaching
from the northwest and may send a band of showers and storms into
the state late in the day. A concern will be for more organized
convection that night and on Friday night as the best upper
support pass by to the northwest. Unfortunately the system's cold
front will stall nearby on Friday night with a potential for
additional storm clusters keeping the PoPs fairly high through
Saturday morning. Weak high pressure and more distinct drying
does follow for late that day and at night. This will allow for
more of a ridge to valley temperature split that night and again
Sunday night before a better chance of showers and storms arrive
on Monday. Given the uncertainty with the pattern have carried a
chance for showers and/or storms each afternoon through the
weekend - but lowest threat and best chances for a dry afternoon
will be on Sunday. Likewise, temperatures will have a larger
potential spread through the weekend with the drier scenario
favoring the higher highs.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding terrain distinction to the temperatures for Saturday and
Sunday nights. As for PoPs - did not deviate from the NBM
solution given the fairly similar model clusters and net results
for this part of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across eastern
Kentucky at the start of the TAF window. Showers and storms will
create brief lowering of categories at terminals but once showers
and storms dissipate, terminals are forecast to return to VFR.
However, widespread fog is expected to develop overnight which
will cause another reduction in category after 08Z/Wednesday
through around 13Z. CIGS will slowly improve through the morning
before approaching VFR by the end of the TAF window. Winds are
forecast to be light and variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...VORST

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