Tornado Warning 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

776 
WWUS52 KJAX 161231
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
831 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAC005-069-161-161245-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T1245Z/
Coffee GA-Bacon GA-Jeff Davis GA-
831 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN BACON AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS
COUNTIES...

At 831 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles southwest of Graham, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Coffee, northwestern Bacon and southwestern Jeff Davis
Counties, including the following locations... Denton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8254 3175 8255 3174 8255 3173 8252
      3171 8252 3171 8250 3162 8243 3153 8269
      3168 8286 3185 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 236DEG 52KT 3173 8259 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

PK

841 
WWUS52 KJAX 161244
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
844 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAC005-069-161-161254-
/O.EXP.KJAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T1245Z/
Coffee GA-Bacon GA-Jeff Davis GA-
844 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN BACON
AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EDT for southeastern
Georgia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for
southeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8254 3175 8255 3174 8255 3173 8252
      3171 8252 3171 8250 3162 8243 3153 8269
      3168 8286 3185 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 236DEG 52KT 3182 8243 

$$

PK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
718 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Strong mid/upper level trough continues to shift slowly eastward
over the central U.S. heading into the Midwest and eastern U.S.
this morning. A strong cold front continues to progress eastward
with radar mosaic showing substantial precip/convection from the
TN valley southward to the Gulf coast over the western FL
panhandle.

The strong cold front will head into our area this morning bringing
widespread showers and embedded strong to possibly severe storms.
We recently issued a tornado watch for 3 counties in southeast GA
with storms arriving there by about 6-7 AM. More watches may be needed
later this morning. It's worth noting the timing of precip is not an
all day event with most locations seeing precip occurring for about
3-6 hours as the system heads eastward at about 45 mph. With the
daytime heating, MLCAPE reaches upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and
combined with bulk shear 45-60 kt, some storms may be severe with
all hazards on the table. SPC continues to show a slight risk of
severe storms during the day for the entire area. Storm hazards
include damaging wind gusts of up to 70 mph, marginally severe
hail, and an isolated tornado. SRH values through 0-3 km of about
300 is noted in the model soundings but oriented generally from
eastern parts of southeast GA to near the JAX metro area, and the
Suwannee Valley. Late in the day, showers and a few storms will be
diminishing from about St Johns to Putnam and Marion counties by
early evening with best dynamic pretty far removed from the precip
so organization of storms should generally be weaker but still
capable of producing a brief occurrence of strong/severe wx. As
far as sfc wind fields, breezy/windy conditions expected with
south- southwest winds increasing quickly by mid morning to 15-25
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. Main area where gusts have the
potential to reach wind advisory criteria is across the srn most
zones. Have opted to include a wind advisory Marion, Putnam, and
Flagler counties based combination of deep mixing there and
southwest winds aloft of about 40 kt. Precip amounts generally 0.5
to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts of about 1.5 inches
possible.

By mid evening, showers and storms are expected to be offshore
and/or south of the forecast area. Clearing skies expected
tonight and cooler temperatures will filter into the area with
temps falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s with northwest
winds slowly diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A ridge of high pressure will begin to move overhead at the start
of the upcoming week after the fropa during the early predawn
hours on Monday. High pressure remains overhead into midweek. A
low pressure system will moving across the Great Lakes region will
drag an associated frontal system across the southeastern CONUS
by Wednesday. The cold front will near SE GA by evening hours on
Wednesday.

Monday, drier air and cooler temperatures will return to the area as
breezy northwesterly winds, around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20
mph, develop after the cold front's passage. Daytime highs in the
low/mid 60s over SE GA and Suwannee Valley region, upper 60s/lower
70s for the rest of NE FL and coastal locations. Monday night,
winds begin to relax and shift to become northeasterly by Tuesday
morning. Lows will dip into the lower 40s for most locations, mid
40s to lower 50s along coastal locations.

Tuesday, the high pressure overhead will result in winds to shift
to be in very dry conditions as min RHs will dip into the upper
20s across most of the area. Temperatures will warm a bit as
daytime highs will be around the mid 70s for most locations with
warmer locations along north central FL. The onshore breeze will
keep coastal locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By the
overnight hours, lows will be in the lower 40s area-wide, warmer
lows with temperatures in the upper 40 to lower 50s.

Wednesday, mostly southerly winds will develop as the high pressure
shifts away towards the Atlantic. Warmer air advecting into the
area will bring highs in the lower 80s across inland locations,
while the coastal breeze will keep coastal locations around the
mid to upper 70s. Very dry conditions will again be area-wide with
min RHs in the mid 20s. Wednesday night, a cold front will begin
to move into SE GA. As of now, precipitation chances remain on the
low end for northwestern counties of SE GA late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

The cold front will through the area on Thursday, clearing south
of NE FL by Thursday night. Low chances of precipitation during
the morning hours on Thursday as the front moves through. High
pressure builds into the region behind the cold front on Friday,
bringing dry conditions into the weekend as the high pressure
settles over the region. Behind the cold front, daytime highs will
cool a bit compared to Wednesday as temperatures will be around
the upper 60s to lower 70s the second half of the work week. By
Saturday, temperatures will warm up as winds shift to be from the
south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

No major changes as line of broken strong to severe storms will
track towards the local TAF sites and impact with IFR VSBYS/CIGS
and wind gusts to around 40 knots. Timing still mainly in the
16-20Z time frame. Some MVFR CIGS and increasing South winds at
15G25 knots ahead of this feature before storms reach the TAF
sites. Lingering showers and a mix of MVFR/VFR CIGS in the 21-01Z
time frame behind the squall line with decreasing SW winds to
10-15 knots. Clearing skies and wind shift to the W-NW with
increase to 14G21 knots at local TAF sites in the 04-07Z time
frame with lagging frontal passage which will last through the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Fairly strong southerly flow continues tonight and into Sunday
morning ahead of the approaching cold front with winds of about
20-25 kt. Occasional gusts of gale force are possible. Should see
showers and storms with a broken squall line moving into the
coastal waters starting noon-1 PM, Duval county northward, then
south of Duval from 1-7PM, with lingering precip showers and
isolated t-storms 7pm to midnight. With the front moving east of
the waters early tonight, winds will become southwest to west at
about 20 kt and then wind turn northwest toward 3-4AM, and
forecast to increase a bit again to 20-25 kt. Northwest to north
winds near 20 kt likely Mon night as high pressure west of the
area starting to impinge on the area. Winds winds start to
diminish on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region from
the west and settles over the local waters by Wednesday and while
the wind speeds will drop, the seas will be much slower to diminish
and expect headlines to continue across the offshore waters. As
the high pressure over the area early Wed moves east of the waters
Wed night, the next mainly dry cold frontal system moves in
Thursday. Another increase expected in winds with this feature.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents today due to the strong
south to southeast flow and rough and dangerous rip currents.
Risk appears to tap down to moderate Monday as flow becomes strong
offshore, but swells remain elevated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Today, a strong cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms
across the area, as well as gusty southwesterly winds ahead of
its passage. Rainfall totals are forecast to be about 0.5-1.0"
with this system today. Patchy high daytime dispersion is expected
today, and again on Monday as breezy winds shift to
northwesterly. Drier air over the area will bring critical RH
values during the upcoming work-week as minRH will range in the
20-30% range on Monday through Wednesday. Winds will begin to
lessen on Tuesday as high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Minor flooding continues on the St Marys River at Macclenny.
Water level is forecast to diminish to just below minor flood
stage late Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  48  64  40 /  90   0   0   0
SSI  75  51  65  46 /  90  10   0   0
JAX  81  51  67  43 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  83  54  68  47 /  80  40   0   0
GNV  80  50  68  42 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  83  51  69  41 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for FLZ038-137-138-140-237-240-340.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
715 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAZ132>136-149-161215-
Bacon GA-Atkinson GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-Wayne GA-
715 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN
ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN BACON...NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...JEFF DAVIS AND
APPLING COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM EDT...

At 715 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Enigma, or 7 miles east of Tifton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pridgen, Graham, Broxton, Nicholls, Baxley, Denton, Ambrose,
Snipesville, Willacoochee, and Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8243 3190 8219 3191 8213 3189 8212
      3190 8211 3186 8212 3182 8202 3178 8198
      3130 8305 3140 8314 3146 8315 3151 8308
      3161 8306 3166 8300 3179 8299 3178 8287
      3192 8268 3196 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 240DEG 49KT 3147 8338

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PK