Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
252 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few showers and storms are pushing through the western counties
of the NE FL and over SE GA early this afternoon. The continued
SW flow will see activity continue see showers and storms move
northeasterly across the local area this afternoon. The flow will
also keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned along the coast this
afternoon, with storm coverage anticipated to expand as further
showers and storms expected to development along the sea breeze.
Strong to severe storm development possible as instability
increases with diurnal heating, particularly along the SE GA
coast with MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A Slight risk (level 2
of 5) for severe storms remains for SE GA for this afternoon from
the SPC. Main hazards for any storms that do develop are for gusty
winds, flooding rainfall, frequent lightning and small hail. By
the evening hours, activity will begin to push offshore, with a
few lingering showers moving over inland locations during the
early to mid evening hours. Closer to sunrise on Friday,
precipitation chances will begin to increase along the I-75
corridor in NE FL.

Highs for this afternoon are expected to be in the low 90s for
most locations, with upper 80s for the northern counties of SE GA.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Friday, deep west to southwest flow is expected in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front. The surface flow is strong enough
at 10-15 mph/ solid 15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph to keep the
Atlantic sea breeze offshore of the Atlantic coast. Scattered
convection may be ongoing mainly across northeast FL, but the low
level forcing is relatively weak. With daytime heating with highs
mainly in the lower 90s, more robust scattered showers and storms
should form by mid to late aftn but the main player will be the
cool front moving into the northwest zones across south and central
GA. Main threats with storms in the late aftn and evening for
southeast GA look to be strong gusty winds up to 40-60 mph and
with the front with all thunderstorm hazards possible but a
tornado threat admittedly is pretty low. SPC shows a slight risk
of severe storms for southeast GA associated with the frontal
boundary. The front will move southeast into the area Friday
evening with scattered convection likely continuing until late in
the night with generally weaker activity after midnight with loss
of heating.

Saturday, cool front will continue to push down the FL peninsula
but some brief lingering showers possible in the morning south of
line roughly from St Augustine to Gainesville. Otherwise, weak surface
high in the region and broad mid level trough and drier air on
northwest to west flow will ensure clearer skies and more mild
temps for Saturday afternoon with highs in the 80s. Light winds
and clear skies Sat night with low below normal in the 60-65 deg
range. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Weak surface high is over the region Sunday with clear skies and near
seasonal highs closer to 90 deg. Lows not quite as cool for
Monday morning in the lower to mid 60s.

For the Monday to Thursday time frame, high pressure will move
from over the region and then to offshore into the Atlantic, with
airmass overall remaining fairly dry with some subsidence over
the region. A weak surface trough may pass through on Monday but
likely not more than a wind shift and some additional clouds.
There may be a slight uptick in moisture for northeast FL Wed and
Thu that may support isolated convection inland areas. Temps will
warm to near or above seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Showers and storms beginning to develop across the local area.
Activity is expected to move near the inland TAF sites a around
19Z/20Z for SSI and GNV, followed by the JAX metro sites. Periods
of heavy rainfall will bring lower vsbys and cigs, highlighted by
TEMPO groups. Showers and storms will begin to push offshore by
the early evening hours, with winds beginning to lessen during the
overnight hours. Southwesterly winds pickup once again by 12Z/13Z
with VFR cigs expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Showers and storms will begin to develop the mid to late afternoon
hours along the the Atlantic sea breeze as it becomes pinned
along the coast due to the continued southwesterly flow. By this
evening, showers and storms will push away from the coast but
remain over the local waters. By Friday, west flow will strengthen
to Exercise Caution levels offshore ahead of an approaching cool
front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the
front as it pushes across the waters Friday night, with Small
Craft Advisory levels possible for the outer waters as the front
passes overhead. A drier airmass and a weak pressure pattern
should allow a sea breeze dominant weather pattern to return and
fair weather by Sunday.

Rip Currents: With easterly swells with periods of 8-9 seconds, a
moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated today. A downward
trend appears for Friday with swells slightly lower and an
offshore wind flow pattern.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Pockets of heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding with a
quick 2 inches per hour in some storms, but overall areal average
rainfall amounts look to be 1 inch or less through Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  89  63  84 /  30  40  30   0
SSI  72  90  68  87 /  70  40  50   0
JAX  71  93  68  89 /  70  40  50  10
SGJ  73  91  70  87 /  40  40  60  10
GNV  72  91  69  89 /  30  50  40  10
OCF  72  90  71  89 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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