Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The forecast has not changed much with isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms forming over the area at 2 PM. Expect scattered
to occasionally numerous showers and storms through the early evening,
before diminishing in coverage by late evening. We've already had
one storm in Marion storm that had a strong updraft to prompt a
brief severe storms. Convective parameters remain favorable with
MLCAPE analyzes at 2500-3000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches.
Individual CAM model runs doing a poor job so far, but HREF overall
gives better representation of current wx. Anticipate enhanced
rain chances upwards of 55-70 percent rest of the aftn til about
6-7 pm around the I-10 corridor and then along a north-south area
from near Bunnell, through JAX metro and into southeast GA around
or west of Brunswick. There should be enough push to move scattered
through beaches and into the nearshore waters, which should weaken.
Anticipate that almost all convection will fade and dissipate after
midnight. Lows tonight similar to the prior nights in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Not much change to the pattern through Saturday, with surface high
pressure remaining east of the Florida Peninsula and a west to
southwesterly flow expected. This will therefore support
convection mostly beginning near the Gulf Coast sea breeze around
midday to early afternoon before spreading inland and likely
peaking late afternoon and into the evening hours as the southwest
flow hits the nearly pinned east coast sea breeze. Guidance is in
good agreement with respect to a wedge of drier PWATS in the 1.6
to 1.8 inch range spreading into northeast FL, which will likely
keep convection more widely scattered to scattered, especially
south of about I-10. As per usual, isolated strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible Saturday, though will most likely
take more substantial boundary collisions given mid level temps
near or warmer than climo. Above normal temps will continue
Saturday with the southwest flow, as highs in the mid 90s will be
common except near the immediate coast. Overnight lows Saturday
Night will be mild in the mid to upper 70s.

Low level high pressure starts to break down Sunday as surface
troughing/broad low pressure shifts southward across the Florida
Peninsula. This will provide a day of more northwesterly
continental flow but also increased mean layer moisture as
troughing settles in. With this, convection is expected to be more
numerous Sunday, especially over northeast FL as some drier air
tries to mix in aloft in the northwest flow over interior
southeast GA. 500mb temps look warmer than normal once again
however, and therefore minor flooding due to heavy rainfall will
be the primary hazard, with secondary being strong gusts up to 40
to 50 mph. Not any significant concerns regarding
tropical/subtropical development with this area at this time,
though will certainly watch close over the next few days. The
presence of the low may also keep some convection going Sunday
Night, especially over the waters/coastal region of northeast FL.
Temps in the mid 90s will be common once again, with some readings
in the upper 90s possible over interior southeast GA where PoPs
are slightly lower. Sunday Night expect lows in the mid to upper
70s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Troughing/weak low pressure will slowly move across the Florida
Peninsula Monday and into the Gulf by Tuesday as high pressure
builds back in from the northeast. As stated above, will certainly
keep an eye on this area into the long term, as the Climate Prediction
Center did include around 20% chance of tropical development with
this disturbance over the Gulf for mid to late next week in their
Week 2 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook earlier this week. Flow
will become more south to southeasterly as high pressure will be
positioned east/northeast of the region, keeping layer moisture
high and therefore daily convection chances in the 60 to 80%
range. Temperatures will likely remain above normal to start the
long term period on Monday, though falling closer to climo for the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

So far, isolated to scattered convection over the forecast area
with TEMPO groups in effect generally through at least 23z, but
VCTS started 18z and goes through about 02z or so. Some lingering
rain/embedded tstorms may affect around JAX metro TAFs 01z-04z,
before dissipating. IFR expected in the stronger storms. Otherwise,
VFR or VFR cigs will prevail. A later start to convection on Saturday
is anticipated but scattered storms probably will fire again at
the end of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Outside of occasional scattered thunderstorms affecting the
marine waters each day, no significant winds and seas expected
with high pressure over central FL through the weekend, and then
dipping southward a weak low pressure trough slides down from SC
and GA. This will weaken the overall wind flow late Sunday into
Monday with winds of about 10 kt and seas dropping off to about 2
ft. Otherwise winds of up to 10-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft will
dominate the waters. More of southerly wind flow regime may begin
on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the
coast in the afternoon and early evening hours most of the days.
Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.
There may an atypical convection pattern developing over the
marine waters Sunday into Monday due to the low pressure
troughing.

Rip Currents: Low end moderate risk of rip currents at area
beaches with surf of about 1-3 ft/1-2 ft.  Overall, a lowering
of the general risk looks probable over the weekend as surf drops
off further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  74  96 /  40  50  20  40
SSI  77  93  78  94 /  30  40  30  40
JAX  75  95  76  96 /  30  50  20  60
SGJ  75  95  77  94 /  30  30  30  60
GNV  73  96  74  95 /  20  40  10  70
OCF  73  94  74  93 /  10  40  10  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

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