Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
713 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early evening update for radar trends of less convective coverage
across Marion/Putnam/Flagler counties given more limited
instability and low level boundaries with passing high cirrus
aloft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to focus across northeast Florida as drier air limits convective
growth. The surface front was just NNW of Waycross, mostly notable
in a wind shift to the NW at dew pts falling into the low to mid
60s!

Still on track for cooler temperatures tonight trailing the front
across SE GA with lows in the mid to upper 60s to the lower 70s
across much of inland NE FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A weak trough of low pressure, left over from the old front, will
remain over the area today, drifting eastward while a new cold
front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will move into
southeast GA this afternoon and then press southward over northeast
FL tonight, and be at a position from about St Augustine to Gainesville
or Ocala by sunrise on Tuesday. Low level convergence and daytime
heating should be able to generate scattered to numerous showers
and storms during the day, mainly over northeast FL where the
better instability and low level forcing is expected. The main
threat will be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds. Notably, temps aloft at 500 mb remain fairly warm at
about -5.2C and lapse rates are not impressive. Mainly for northeast
FL, precip rates on the order of about 2-3 inches per hour are
possible with totals near 3-4 inches possible in very isolated
spots with the favorable parameters being PWATs of about 1.8 to 2
inches and warm cloud depths of at least 13 kft. Highs today will
be warmer than the past 2 days, owing to more insolation with
highs in the lower 90s.

Precip expected to be isolated to scattered this evening with most
of the activity in the eastern zones and northeast FL as the cool
front enters the northwest zones. The precip will diminish through
the evening as the front continues it's progress southeastward,
along with a drier airmass finally making it's way into the forecast
area. PWAT values will drop considerably for most areas including
down to about 1 inch for southeast GA by early morning. The drier
air airmass will lead to lower overnight lows down into the
mid/upper 60s for most of southeast GA, and lower 70s for northeast
FL with clearer skies, except for sct-bkn high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Cold front over north-central FL Tuesday morning will gradually
shift south of the area as a dry airmass settles in the wake of
the front. This airmass will scour out the tropical airmass that
has been over the area and lower PWATs to around an inch and
potentially below an inch. This will confine rain chances to
north-central FL for Tuesday and Wednesday due to the proximity to
the frontal boundary and the best moisture. High temperatures will
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will dip into
the mid-upper 60s inland to the low 70s for north central FL and
areas near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Moisture and rain chances gradually return for the latter half of
the week as high pressure lifts to the northeast and a parade of
upper shortwaves stream across the region. Generally easterly flow
will shift the Atlantic sea breeze well inland with the sea breeze
collision likely along the I-75 corridor in the late afternoons
into evenings. PWATs will increase back to 1.8-2+ inches with the
potential for heavy rainfall. WPC highlighted SE GA in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for Friday. High
temperatures will cool slightly into the weekend, with highs being
near and just below the seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Restrictions due to passing TSRA through 02z at northeast Florida
terminals with TEMPOs for TS at VQQ, GNV, CRG and SGJ and VCSH for
JAX and SSI. Cloud layers lift through the night as low level
westerly winds become NNW to N through 12z trailing surface front
passage. Continued with shallow ground fog potential in TEMPO
groups at VQQ and GNV, otherwise VFR. After 12z Tue, NNE winds at
coastal terminals through the morning become E into the afternoon
with the east coast sea breeze. Inland terminals have prevailing
NNW to WNW winds, sustained speeds < 10 kts. Prevailing VFR
conditions. Best chance of TSRA will be near GNV and SGJ after 20z
with rain chances < 20% at this time, so refrained from PROB30s
right now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Westerly flow around 10 kt at this time with a left over diffuse front
over the region. Another sfc cold front will move into the area
waters later tonight. No headlines required at this time. Seas
remain elevated due to long period east-northeast swells at 3-4
ft. The front will move south of the area Tuesday and stalling mid
week. The front lifts back northward by the end of the work week.
This front may then boost rain chances back up Friday-Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate to high rip current risk at area beaches,
with swells of about 3+ feet for northeast FL beaches. May need
additional headlines for Tuesday, but uncertain on the
persistence of the swells.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Locally heavy rainfall possible today with amounts of 3+ inches
in isolated spots for northeast FL. This threat is primarily over
the St Johns River Basin area.

As far as the tidal water levels, stations in the St Johns River
Basin and along the Atlantic coast have reached action stages,
roughly in the 1.0 to 1.5 ft MHHW range. This has been largely due
to the recent new moon. Current forecast guidance shows that peak
water levels will trend downward the next couple of days so no
headlines are required.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  90  73  87 /  20   0   0  10
JAX  71  92  70  89 /  30  10   0  20
SGJ  73  91  73  89 /  50  20  10  30
GNV  71  93  69  92 /  30  20  10  30
OCF  72  91  71  91 /  20  60  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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