Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
720 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Frontal boundary extends from the FL panhandle ENE to the SE GA
coast where some convergent showers and embedded thunder persist
early this morning, producing some pockets of locally heavy rain
1-2 inches. These showers will sink south and east into the waters
as the front meanders a little southwards to the Fl/GA state line.
Inland, conditions are dry with mostly clear skies as a few mid
and high level clouds linger before gradually thinning out. Low
stratus will expand across the GA coast and inland to US82
northwards as high pressure wedges from the NE states into the
lee side of the southern appalachians. Temperatures in the
low/mid 70s observed inland with upper 70s along the coast will
hold through dawn.

A mid to upper level trough extending south along the spine of
the appalachian mountains to the Fl panhandle will shift its
axis eastward to near the GA coast later today as Atlantic ridge
remains closer to Bermuda. At the surface, high pressure will
be anchored NE of the area with the frontal boundary staying across
NE FL with east to NE onshore flow today. Some morning showers will
be along the front offshore and move west towards the JAX beaches to
Fernandina beach. Midday, Atlantic seabreeze will progress
onshore and kick off scattered showers and T'storms as it
interacts with the St Johns river/lake breezes with coverage of
T'storms becoming more numerous as outflows and Atlantic seabreeze
continue pushing WSW well inland before merging with the Gulf
seabreeze near I-75 in NE FL.

Trough will keep cooler than average mid level temperatures above
and create sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates to support
higher wind gust potential from wet downbursts in isolated strong
to severe pulse T'storms where Storm mergers and outflows
converge. Above average moisture will be along the frontal
boundary across NE FL (PWATS 2.0-2.25 inches) and support numerous
to widespread showers for most of the area south of US84 into NE
FL. The low level flow from the ENE will be countered by mid and
high level SW flow aloft, creating very slow storm motions that
will support a localized flood risk this afternoon as rainfall
rates of 2-4 inches per hour may cause concerns over urban and low
lying and flood prone locations.

The onshore flow will keep highs in the upper 80s along and north
of I-10 with low 90s south of I-10 and low to mid 90s over north
central FL south of the frontal boundary.

Tonight, most convection should end inland after 10 PM with debris
clouds thinning after midnight. Offshore showers may redevelop
along the frontal boundary across the NE FL waters. Lows will be
in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast with
light NE winds overnight.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)...

On Friday, onshore flow between wedged ridge to the north and
coastal troughing well offshore enhance convergence along a
weakening frontal zone. This flow regime will prompt a shift in the
corridor of highest diurnal thunderstorm coverage toward inland
areas along I-75 corridor. Afternoon and evening convection will
be strongest along the sea breeze mergers across NE FL where
additional interaction with the lingering frontal zone may lead to
instances of strong or marginally severe wet downbursts, up to 60
mph. Waning convection is expected with the loss of daytime
heating, however, a dulling inverted trough making inroads toward
the coast may instigate additional shower and isolated storms into
the beaches through the late evening and potentially overnight
hours.

For Saturday, the coastal trough will phase with the old frontal
zone and shift northward through the morning and afternoon hours.
Between the sea breeze influences in addition to the renewed and
lifting frontal zone, numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected through out the day Saturday, beginning as
early as 9 AM at the coast.

Combination of the broad frontal zone, abundant cloud cover, and
widespread rain. Temperatures should trend below normal or close to
normal, with highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Given
the placement of the stalled frontal zone Friday, there may be some
low stratus and perhaps patchy fog during morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Thursday)...

Wet pattern continues with onshore flow driving highest storm
coverage inland along the Gulf and Atlc converging sea breezes.
There could be compounding flood risk due to multiple days of hit-
and-miss heavy downpours. Spatially confidence is too low to be
specific of any particular area of concern but the I-75 corridor in
generally may be at a low-end risk of excessive rain Sunday and
Monday.

Around Tuesday next week, deeply stacked ridging will build across
FL increasing daily max temps into the mid 90s inland and low 90s at
the coast. Increased subsidence and some slightly drier air aloft
will trend PoPs down starting by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A nearly stationary frontal zone will linger across the area this
period. This boundary will continue to help focus diurnally
driven convection. Showers and thunderstorms will develop later
this morning, and increase in coverage during the afternoon. This
activity will decrease in coverage during evening. With the front
providing convergence, showers will remain possible through much
of the night. Restrictions are expected in and near showers and
thunderstorms, with gusty winds possible.

&&

.MARINE...

A stalled front will extend across the waters with high pressure to
the northeast. A coastal trough will form east of the waters later
today. A weak low may form along the coastal trough before lifting
north and east into the Atlantic waters Friday into the weekend.
Onshore northeast flow will continue into early next week as the low
moves away from the region.

Rip Currents: Moderate Rip Current risk continues today and Friday
due to onshore flow with wave heights of 2-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  71  87  72 /  50  20  70  30
SSI  87  77  86  77 /  60  50  90  70
JAX  88  74  88  74 /  80  50  90  60
SGJ  89  77  88  77 /  80  60  90  60
GNV  91  74  89  74 /  90  50  90  30
OCF  92  74  89  74 /  90  50 100  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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