Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
109 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection will continue through the afternoon, and dissipate
during the evening. With a stalled frontal boundary in place,
showers could linger through the night. Lows Tonight ranging from
the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Diurnal bouts of showers and storms are expected to form on
Thursday and Friday as a mid level trough stretches ahead of the
mostly stationary frontal boundary over the region. Potential for
numerous to widespread storms building during this period with the
primary drivers for developments through the end of the week
occurring along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of
convergence. Higher rainfall amounts anticipated over inland areas
on Thursday. High temperatures through the end of the week will
rise into the mid to upper 80s primarily for areas along and north
of the I-10 corridor and in the lower 90s for north central
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend with rainfall amounts lessening through the course of
the forecast period with a south-easterly prevailing developing by
the beginning of next week as high pressure ridging extends
towards the Florida peninsula from out of the Atlantic.
Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the weekend
and into next week with daily high temps expected to rise into the
mid 90s before midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Convection will continue this afternoon, and provide the potential
for restrictions for each of the area TAF sites. Gusty winds will
also be expected in and near thunderstorms. Convection will
dissipate during the evening hours, with a few showers lingering
through the night. Patchy inland fog may produce restrictions at
KVQQ toward dawn Thursday. Low stratus is expected to develop over
the SE GA coast overnight into Thursday morning, which could produce
restrictions at KSSI. Convective chances will increase through the
morning hours Thursday, with greater chances during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

A frontal boundary will remain over the region through Thursday.
This front will then sink south across central FL Friday through the
early part of next week. This boundary will result in unsettled
weather throughout this period, with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area that may become
a tropical cyclone near the Southeastern US coast late this week
into this weekend. Continue to monitor NHC forecasts through the
week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  87  70  87 /  40  50  20  60
SSI  76  87  76  86 /  50  70  60  80
JAX  74  90  74  88 /  50  70  60  90
SGJ  76  89  76  88 /  40  70  60  90
GNV  73  92  73  90 /  30  90  40  90
OCF  75  92  74  89 /  20  90  40  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
357 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

FLZ125-132-325-425-633-062030-
Eastern Clay FL-Western St. Johns FL-Western Duval FL-
South Central Duval FL-Coastal Duval FL-
357 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Marco, or near Jacksonville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph. A recent report was received of 44
         mph from NAS JAX from this storm.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Orange Park, Unf, Mandarin, Fruit Cove, Arlington,
Baymeadows, Ortega, Switzerland, and Nas Jax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 8156 3003 8161 3017 8175 3018 8174
      3019 8174 3019 8176 3023 8180 3038 8161
      3023 8144 3022 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 319DEG 12KT 3027 8164

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY

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