Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
724 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A broad surface low around 1013 mb was analyzed near the southern
NC along the coast with a west-east backdoor frontal boundary
nearby. The models generally agree the surface low and front will
slide south- southwest today, with the low pressure moving into
southern GA this evening. Broad cyclonic flow in the low levels
from the northwest and west (sfc 5-10 mph), along with the west
and east coast sea breeze should result in numerous to potentially
widespread showers and storms over northeast FL (especially
inland) and less coverage over southeast GA as some drier air is
noted in that area. Areas that don't get precip until mid to late
aftn will be prime for further convection in the evening hours
and possible overnight hours (until midnight-2 AM) given the
synoptic regime with warm and unstable conditions and the low
pressure feature.

The primary threat today will be heavy downpours and resultant
localized flooding, with analysis suggesting PWATs of 2.2 inches
currently. WPC has the entire area in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. The higher threat will be locations that
already are somewhat saturated and urbanized areas. In addition,
with the fairly high MLCAPE of about 2500-3000 J/kg, strong
downburst winds of 45-60 mph will be possible in the stronger
cores. SPC shows a marginal risk of severe storms mainly north of
I-10 in our area.

Hot and humid conditions are expected again today, and like yesterday,
afternoon convection and cloud cover may shorten the window of heat
index values of 108+ degrees. Yesterday's heat indices varied from
105 to about 110. Have opted to re-issue another heat advisory
that encompasses most locations. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
70s are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

A broad closed low is likely to develop along the lingering trough as
the trough continues westward across the Gulf waters, dragging
its associated cold front down towards the local area. Another
active day as showers and storms get an early start during the
morning hours on Wednesday, with activity further developing by
the afternoon into early evening hours. In addition to expected
numerous to widespread thunderstorms, PWATs of around 2.25" to
2.5" will support the possibility of rain rates of 4-5" per hour at
times. As mentioned in the earlier forecast package, Flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the deep moisture in
place and the risk is likely to be highest west of I-95 as
easterly flow will push showers and storms in a east to west
pattern. With the increase in cloud cover on Wednesday, highs are
expected to only get into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By Thursday, southeasterly flow and lingering moisture will keep the
possibility of scattered to numerous showers/storms for most
locations by the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze makes
its way inland. Temps will be a bit warmer than Wednesday but
still only get into the lower 90s with upper 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Guidance is trending towards a less wet period during the upcoming
weekend as drier air, PWATs ~1.5" to 1.8", is brought into the
area with a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic high shifting
towards the eastern seaboard. POPs for this weekend have lowered
to now sit in the 30% to 40% range for most of the area. With that
said, another period of temps getting into the upper 90s with the
ridge building over the area, with heat index values potentially
reaching to Advisory levels once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Another early start to showers and storms for GNV and SGJ with
this round ending in the next couple of hours. Widespread showers
and storms then develop across all TAF sites later this afternoon
mainly after 18Z. Have TEMPOs in for stronger storms capable of
producing gusty winds and MVFR/IFR VSBYs. Otherwise, west to
northwest winds 5-10 knots will turn to the east and southeast for
the coastal TAF sites with the Atlantic sea breeze passage prior
to most T'storms developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

A broad area of low pressure will move southwest across the local
waters today and tonight and then move into the Gulf on Wednesday.
A weak backdoor frontal boundary will move into the Georgia
waters late Wednesday which will likely bring higher chances to
showers and thunderstorms to area waters Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure ridging will begin building into the region Wednesday
night through the weekend as the low pressure in the Gulf moves
away from the area, allowing for prevailing winds to become south and
southeast over our local waters. Winds generally look to be less
than 15 kt and combined seas remain low at 1-3 ft.

Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents with max surf
heights near 1-2 ft. Similar conditions anticipated for Wednesday.
Some increased rip current risk possible late week and the
weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
Today:

                Today
                ---------
Jacksonville    101/1942
Gainesville     99/1907
Alma, GA        100/1942
Craig Airport   99/1977

Daily record high minimums at our designated climate sites
Today:

                Today
                --------
Jacksonville    81/1872
Gainesville     77/2015
Alma, GA        76/2021
Craig Airport   78/2025

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  90  73 /  70  60  90  30
SSI  93  79  88  78 /  50  60  80  40
JAX  96  76  91  75 /  80  50  90  30
SGJ  92  75  88  75 /  70  50  80  30
GNV  94  74  90  73 /  80  60 100  30
OCF  92  74  88  74 /  80  70 100  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
815 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     Rain             4 NE Ocala Airport      29.22N 82.19W
07/22/2025  M2.20 Inch       Marion             FL   Mesonet

            Ocala CWOP station FW6750 reported 2.20
            inches from 7:10 am to 8:05 am.

&&

LEV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
816 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     Rain             2 NW Sparr              29.36N 82.14W
07/22/2025  M4.13 Inch       Marion             FL   Mesonet

            Private weather station Fuhrman Weather -
            KFLCITRA13 measured 4.13 inches of rainfall.
            Rain began around 505 AM.

&&

KC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
817 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 AM     Rain             2 ENE Sparr             29.35N 82.09W
07/22/2025  E4.06 Inch       Marion             FL   Mesonet

            Private weather station BRUNO - KFLANTHO23
            measured 4.06 inches of rain. Rain began
            around 535 AM.

&&

KC

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