Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
640 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Late this afternoon through tonight: There aren't too many
surprises in the weather scenario so far today. Elevated shower
and thunderstorm activity has been popping up over
southwest/southern portions of the area early this afternoon, but
thus far the updrafts are not overly intense. As we get closer to
the evening, strengthening low level flow and frontogenesis in the
loosely defined baroclinic zone over our region will support
increasing coverage of elevated convective precipitation from west
to east, and steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep layer
shear will support a few strong to severe storms with marginally
severe hail. Any sfc-based severe potential remains highly
questionable given the state of the boundary layer, so will
continue to monitor trends and adjust the severe weather graphic
accordingly, but no changes are planned as of now. Expect the
thunderstorm intensity to peak late this evening, then a gradual
waning of shower activity should follow for the remainder of the
night.

Sunday through Sunday night: The closed upper low traversing the
Deep South will be the primary weather driver as we finish up the
weekend. Moist ascent will be most pronounced in the deformation
zone north of the low center, which is expected to move into
northwest portions of the area Sunday afternoon then track to east
central MS by late Sunday night. An area of numerous showers and
with even a few rumbles of thunder may develop over roughly the
northeast half of the area and result in light to moderate
rainfall amounts. /EC/

Monday through Friday night: As the closed low from this
weekend exits the area, a progressive upper level pattern will
bring additional trough passages, and perhaps a more significant
storm threat by the end of the week. We should moderate quickly
into the early part of next week ahead of a potential weather
maker by midweek. Model guidance has shown large spread on the
intensity of the upper level shortwave driving this activity and
relatedly the mass response and cyclogenesis associated with that.
In general, though, guidance has trended toward a solution of
increased rain chance but a lack of frontal progression through
the area with the upper level disturbance moving more northward
and away, leaving prevailing lower level southerlies in place
through the end of the week.

There is some indication that this could allow several days, then,
of boundary layer recovery until a more potent trough ejection
toward the end of next week. Given the extended forecast time (7 to
9 days) between now and that possible storm scenario, forecast
confidence in any strong to severe storm risk by next weekend is
low. Regardless, it does appear the active train at jet level will
continue to be of high frequency and amplitude over the next week or
two so there will likely be one or more risks we'll need to
closely monitor. /86/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Widespread -ra/shra and a few tsra will develop as we go through
the evening, but ceilings aren't expected to lower significantly
until late tonight and Sunday morning. Overall, Sunday looks like
it will be a very poor aviation weather day with widespread
IFR/LIFR category ceilings and additional -ra/-shra. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  63  44  66 /  80  50  30  10
Meridian      50  64  46  67 /  70  60  70  20
Vicksburg     51  58  41  66 /  90  30  20   0
Hattiesburg   57  72  46  69 /  70  40  30  10
Natchez       53  60  42  66 /  80  30  10   0
Greenville    47  51  40  65 /  80  60  20   0
Greenwood     48  56  43  66 /  70  60  40   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

EC/86/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
833 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

MSZ061>063-090330-
Lawrence MS-Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
833 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN...LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CST...

At 833 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Center Point, or 13 miles northwest of Mccomb, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bogue Chitto, West Lincoln, and Enterprise around 840 PM CST.
  Brookhaven around 845 PM CST.
  East Lincoln and Ruth around 850 PM CST.
  Monticello around 905 PM CST.
  Robinwood and Wanilla around 910 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9078 3149 9075 3167 9006 3146 9001
      3135 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 249DEG 36KT 3142 9059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR