Severe Thunderstorm Warning 455, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
143 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tonight and Tuesday: Similar to Sunday afternoon, local radars
were showing isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across
the whole CWA. The movement of the convection was to the southwest
and scattered storms will be possible across our central and
southern zones into early evening before the convection will
dissipate. The microburst composite parameter has increased over
the last several hours and shows potential so a few strong wind
gusts can be expected. Otherwise, high pressure surface and aloft
centered just to our west will continue through Tuesday and
actually peak Tuesday before starting to break down. Tuesday will
be another day of near record temperatures across our delta
region. The hot temperatures will combine with high humidity to
result in heat index values above 105F this afternoon and again
Tuesday afternoon. At locations along the Mississippi river heat
index values are expected to exceed 110F this afternoon and again
Tuesday. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for this area
today and Tuesday. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8PM this evening and a Heat Advisory has been issued for
Tuesday as well. Lower rain chances are expected Tuesday and any
thunderstorms that develop will do so mainly during the afternoon
and across our southern zones. A few storms may produce strong
gusty winds again. /22/

Wednesday Onwards...

Little will change over the next week, as high pressure remains
anchored over the region. Isolated afternoon and early evening
showers/thunderstorms are expected every day. All indications at
this time point to non-severe characteristics for this convection
but there is still a chance for damaging winds should a cell or two
overachieve. A weak trough will rotate around the upper level ridge
Thursday which will help moderate our temperatures back down into
the 90s, allowing for a relief from our 105+ heat indices across the
area. Upper level troughing will continue over the area into the
weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a slight increase in
afternoon storm coverage; with the greatest coverage along and south
of I-20./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop and affect cntrl and
southern MS TAF sites through 01Z Tue before dissipating. Away
from TSRA, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  98  75  99 /  10  20  10  40
Meridian      74  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  20
Vicksburg     74  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  40
Hattiesburg   74  97  74  98 /  40  20   0  30
Natchez       73  97  73  96 /  30  20  10  30
Greenville    75 101  75  99 /  10  10  10  40
Greenwood     75 102  75  99 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ025>033-036>039-
     043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ026>033-
     036>039-043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074.

&&

22/OAJ/22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-181900-
Concordia LA-Catahoula LA-Adams MS-
1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CONCORDIA...SOUTHWESTERN
CATAHOULA PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ADAMS
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sibley, or 11 miles south of Natchez, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Deer Park around 115 PM CDT.
  Slocum around 125 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9165 3104 9172 3120 9168 3130 9191
      3127 9195 3123 9192 3123 9199 3127 9199
      3128 9202 3130 9200 3135 9201 3153 9139
      3136 9126 3132 9147 3128 9150 3123 9149
      3122 9158 3111 9163 3104 9156 3097 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 061DEG 18KT 3139 9138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

MSZ043-048-049-182030-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
235 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RANKIN...
NORTHEASTERN HINDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flowood, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson, Pearl, Flowood, and Richland around 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 9016 3234 8994 3215 9021 3236 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 053DEG 13KT 3233 9010

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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