Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tonight through Monday Night...

Storms will come an end around 9pm later this evening with a few
lingering showers possible across southeast AR. Quiet weather
conditions will persist through the overnight period. Afternoon HREF
guidance is showing low probabilities (around 10-20%) for patchy fog
development along and south of Hwy 84. Confidence is too low to
introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow patchy fog
will be possible around dawn. Expect overnight lows to drop into the
low 70s.

Outside of diurnal convection, quiet weather conditions will persist
through Monday morning as hi-res guidance continues to show a 1020mb
sfc high hovering over the eastern Gulf. Rain chances will start to
increase heading into Monday afternoon/early evening thanks to
southerly moist boundary advection over our area along with PWATs
near 2.01in. Heat stress will be the main concern for Monday with
many areas across our forecast area approaching the 105 heat index
criteria. Given afternoon highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s, the "Limited" risk for heat stress will continue to be
highlighted across our entire CWA through Monday.

It is possible that a few areas north and west of Hwy 49 could see
heat indices exceeding 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon. If this
occurs, then a Heat Advisory could be issued from Bolivar MS down
towards Hinds MS. Heat trends will be reassessed during the
evening/midnight shift to see if a Heat Advisory may be needed for
these areas. /CR/

Tuesday through Saturday...

The forecast for the extended period remains on track for the most
part with no significant changes made to the overall forecast.
Dangerous heat will be the primary focus for the long term period
for our entire forecast area beginning on Tuesday with heat index
readings in the triple digits.

Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro is still showing the
1020mb sfc high starting to gradually retrograde across the
southeast CONUS heading into Tuesday. As this high begins to push
north into the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA,
which in turn, will lead to increasing heat conditions through the
extended period. Looking at current forecast trends, it appears that
heat indices will be in the 106-110 range next Tuesday through
Friday given daytime highs forecasted in the mid/upper 90s along
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few spots could
potentially see dewpoints in the low 80s). At this time, no changes
have been made to the heat graphic for the Tuesday/Friday timeframe
and we will continue to highlight a "Elevated" risk for dangerous
heat stress. Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get
through the new work week. If heat trends continue to increase, then
a "Significant" risk will be introduce in later updates.
Furthermore, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as
well.

Afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will provide some
relief from the heat. Global guidance shows convection dissipating
by the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. Future
guidance shows southerly moist boundary layer from the Gulf across
the region. This will allow for rain chances to continue heading
into Saturday afternoon/early evening with higher PoPs (around 55-
75%) along and east of I-55. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through the
forecast period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms this
afternoon and evening will be possible at area sites. If observed,
convection could reduce both ceilings and/or visibilities to MVFR
status for a brief period of time. Isolated severe storms will be
possible this afternoon into early this evening. These storms
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 52 knots, but
frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours can be expected
with on of today's convection. Once convection passes and/or
dissipates, categories will return to VFR status, and remain as
such throughout the remainder of the forecast. Winds this
afternoon away from convection will be sustained from the
southwest between 5-8 knots, becoming light south to calm
overnight. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  94  75  96 /  10  30   0  20
Meridian      73  95  74  96 /  10  30   0  30
Vicksburg     74  95  75  96 /  10  20   0  20
Hattiesburg   74  96  75  98 /  10  30   0  40
Natchez       73  93  73  95 /  10  30   0  20
Greenville    73  93  74  94 /  10  30  10  20
Greenwood     74  94  75  96 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

CR/19/

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