Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Rest of Today through next Thursday...Another rinse and repeat
day as a potent upper-lvl ridge continues to provide hot and humid
weather to the region. Heat indices aren't expected to be greater
than 105 degrees so a heat advisory isn't needed today. Diurnal
showers/t-storms are expected into the evening hours. Some
organized convection will be possible across southeast/eastern MS.
As a result, a "Marginal" (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms
will be possible across southeast and eastern MS with damaging
winds being the primary hazard of concern.

Over the weekend, the ridge is expected to start flatten over the
southeast CONUS and a longwave trough will settle across the
northern CONUS. Afternoon showers/t-storm chances will continue
through the extended period as a frontal boundary is expected to
stall north of the area and the airmass remains unstable. In
addition to the stalled boundary, northwest flow may usher in some
shortwave disturbances throughout the week. Widespread rain chances
are expected (40-75% PoPs with best PoP chances east of I-55).
Temperatures aren't expected to be as oppressive as dewpoint ranges
in the lower 70s and highs reaching the lower 90s. Depending on
cloud cover/rainfall received, heat indices could reach 105 degrees
or greater and may warrant a heat advisory but that decision will be
on a day by day bases. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Flight categories will predominately remain at VFR status through
the forecast period. The potential for scattered convection is
again present across the area this afternoon and early evening,
along with the potential for low stratus developing at a few area
TAF sites toward day break Saturday morning. If either of these
are observed on station, flight categories could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR status for a short duration. An isolated severe storm is
also possible this afternoon, particularly across East Central and
Southeast Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern with the most intense storms, with frequent lightning and
heavy downpours likely. Winds this afternoon will generally be
from the south around 5 knots. These will subside to light to calm
tonight, and will become southwesterly around 5 knots by late
morning on Saturday. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  92  73  92 /  10  40  10  60
Meridian      70  93  71  92 /  20  50  10  80
Vicksburg     73  93  74  92 /  10  30  10  40
Hattiesburg   72  94  73  93 /  30  70  10  80
Natchez       72  91  73  90 /  10  40   0  60
Greenville    73  93  74  90 /  10  30  20  50
Greenwood     73  93  74  91 /  10  40  20  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

SW/19

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
151 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

MSZ058-271915-
Clarke MS-
151 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from De Soto to near Goodwater. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  De Soto and Goodwater around 155 PM CDT.
  Shubuta around 205 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8869 3183 8885 3183 8891 3184 8891
      3198 8883 3202 8872 3195 8862
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 239DEG 10KT 3195 8873 3186 8884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
207 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

MSZ052-271930-
Lauderdale MS-
207 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meridian Station, or 8 miles northeast of Meridian. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lauderdale County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Okatibbee Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Boats could be damaged or
overturned in high winds and suddenly higher waves. Move to safe
shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 8846 3242 8846 3239 8875 3256 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 065DEG 1KT 3250 8862

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
223 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

MSZ074-272000-
Forrest MS-
223 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rawls Springs, or near West Hattiesburg. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rawls Springs around 230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8935 3135 8935 3135 8945 3143 8945
      3143 8923 3132 8929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 333DEG 2KT 3139 8937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

MSZ063-064-072-272130-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Marion MS-
331 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MARION...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE
AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goss, or 10 miles northwest of Columbia, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Columbia, Goss, Holly Springs, and Morgantown around 335 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 9011 3151 8989 3141 8967 3120 8967
      3110 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 333DEG 12KT 3137 8995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB