Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
544 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Through tonight:

It is a warm and windy afternoon as gusty SSW wind advects a warm
and moist airmass into the region. Between considerable breaks in
the cloud deck and this advection, temps now have risen into the
lower 80s across much of the area. A combination of the increased
mixing and falling surface pressures has resulted in winds gusting
into the 35 to 45 mph range almost areawide. Strong gradient wind
will persist through the night, including in the wake of the
front. But strongest non-thunderstorm gusts will mainly occur
ahead of the storms. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include the
entire area through tonight.

Meanwhile frontogenesis is increasing from the ArkLaTex through
the Mid South, coinciding with a strengthening low level jet.
Along this organizing front, showers are already ongoing. Over the
next hour or two, convection is expected increase in coverage and
intensity within this corridor and quickly organize into a line
as it builds eastward. The line will begin to move into our area
in southeast AR/northwest MS around sunset then advance quickly
eastward through the evening hours, departing the Golden Triangle
by around midnight and the Pine Belt within an hour or two later.
With the LLJ forecast to expand and strengthen to 50-60 kt as the
line moves through and 500mb winds increasing to over 100 kt along
with more than sufficient instability through the evening, the
line of storms is expected to be intense with widespread damaging
wind gusts likely to occur. Strong low level shear will also favor
the development of multiple mesovortices along the line with
multiple QLCS tornadoes possible if not likely. Some tornadoes
could be strong. Ahead of the QLCS, increasing convective
development appears likely across south MS later this evening.
Conditions are somewhat unfavorable for this activity to flourish,
but if one or two discrete cells are able to gain traction, the
environment would be conducive for those storms to produce
tornadoes. While this is a low probability scenario, we will be
monitoring it closely through the evening.

With the storms moving through quickly, rain chances will
decrease quickly as well overnight, though light wrap around rain
showers or drizzle are possible toward daybreak Sunday. /DL/

Sunday through next Saturday: Following the front/storm system, a
cold airmass will move into the area dropping temperatures well
below normal. Widespread freeze conditions are expected Sunday
night as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, 10+
degrees cooler than seasonal averages. Following the onset of the
cold the area remains rather active as areas near the ArkLaMiss
junction could possibly see some type of wintry mix by mid-week.
Synoptically upper level troughing will stretch from Canada
through the deep south. In addition a low pressure system tracks
southward into the deep south before pivoting back to the
northeast. As the low pressure system approaches the south precip
chances will increase Tuesday going into Wednesday. During this
mid-week timeframe confidence remains low at this time, however
the ArkLaMiss junction region will see the potential for a wintry
mix. Following this system, late week into the weekend
temperatures remain cold as another cold airmass will arrive.
Overnight temperatures Wednesday into Thursday look to be the
coolest with temps dropping into the mid teens for a majority of
the area and high temps Thursday potentially not rising above
freezing in portions of the area. Cold products will be likely be
needed by mid to late week but this scenario is still a few days
away, so be sure to stay updated with the forecast this week. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

VFR cigs and a gusty wind to near 40 kts will continue ahead of
an approaching cold front. A line of severe storms will develop
along and ahead of the cold front and push eastward across the
area through 08Z with gusts of 50-60 kts and tornadoes expected
along the line. Behind the storms, winds will become northwesterly
and remain gusty. Low level wind shear is expected tonight as
well. Cigs will lower to MVFR tonight and prevail through the
morning before gradually clearing from the west during the
afternoon. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  52  30  54 / 100   0   0   0
Meridian      50  56  28  53 / 100   0   0   0
Vicksburg     43  50  29  53 / 100   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   52  60  31  58 / 100   0   0   0
Natchez       44  52  31  57 / 100   0   0   0
Greenville    39  44  28  46 / 100   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  47  28  51 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
727 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNE Metcalfe          33.48N 90.99W
02/15/2025  M59 MPH          Washington         MS   ASOS

            Observed at GLH Airport.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
735 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ESE JAN Airport       32.30N 90.03W
02/15/2025                   Rankin             MS   Broadcast Media

            Gradient winds knocked a tree down across
            utility lines along Burnham Rd.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
806 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-034-040-041-160315-
Chicot AR-Ashley AR-Washington MS-Sharkey MS-Bolivar MS-Issaquena MS-
806 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHICOT...EASTERN ASHLEY...
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA...NORTHWESTERN SHARKEY AND
BOLIVAR COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CST...

At 805 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Village, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Village and Greenville around 810 PM CST.
  Metcalfe around 815 PM CST.
  Winterville and Leland around 820 PM CST.
  Shaw around 835 PM CST.
  Cleveland around 845 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Halley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Arkansas...northeastern Louisiana...and northwestern and west central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9068 3385 9066 3362 9069 3362 9076
      3299 9078 3301 9170 3335 9175 3339 9146
      3356 9145 3352 9125 3359 9114 3368 9123
      3368 9103 3377 9115 3378 9099 3385 9107
      3394 9103 3395 9105 3412 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 240DEG 49KT 3331 9127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB