Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
708 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Through tonight: The scenario continues to unfold as expected
with a capped warm sector that is heating up strongly well ahead
of an approaching cold front. Storms including some supercells
have developed from northern LA to eastern AR/nrn MS, and they are
just outside of our forecast area. Given that the mixing layer
depth has just about peaked now, it may take some time for a
tornado threat to ramp up, so damaging wind gusts and large hail
should be the primary threats. By early to mid this evening, as
the storms become more organized, we will see the severe threats
peak over north central to northeast MS, including for tornadoes
with effective low level shear expected to maximize in that area
and time frame. The lift associated with the front will be less
as you go south, which makes storm coverage and the overall storm
threat more conditional, especially south of the I-20 corridor
late tonight. There has been little change to timing and hazards.
/EC/

Wednesday through Monday: Cyclonic northwest flow aloft around a
large northeast CONUS trough will bring drier and slightly cooler
conditions to the forecast area making for more comfortable
conditions through late week. As is often the case this time of
year, less humidity is a very temporary condition, and the heat
and humidity will begin to build back in this weekend along with
rain chances. It looks like stormy conditions will peak late
Sunday and perhaps intol Monday ahead of a seasonably strong cold
front pushing south into the area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Outside of a few TSRA crossing the area tonight ahead of a cold
front, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Surface wind will shift to a more northerly direction following
the cold front passage from northwest to southeast overnight. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  86  63  88 /  50   0   0   0
Meridian      65  86  61  90 /  60   0   0   0
Vicksburg     62  86  63  89 /  30   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  91  65  93 /  20   0   0   0
Natchez       64  87  64  90 /  30   0   0   0
Greenville    61  85  63  86 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     61  85  62  86 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
526 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Jennie            33.20N 91.26W
05/20/2025                   Chicot             AR   Storm Chaser

            Tree downed across southbound lane of US 65.
            Possible tornado.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
533 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Tornado          4 SSE Jennie            33.21N 91.26W
05/20/2025                   Chicot             AR   Storm Chaser

            Several snapped trees near Chicot Junction.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
551 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Snyder            33.36N 91.66W
05/20/2025                   Ashley             AR   Emergency Mngr

            Power line down.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
642 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Tornado          6 WSW Jennie            33.21N 91.37W
05/20/2025                   Chicot             AR   Public

            Numerous groups of powerlines down at
            highway 160 & bill young.

&&

OAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

LAZ024-026-210045-
Concordia LA-Catahoula LA-
657 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA AND
NORTHERN CATAHOULA PARISHES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manifest, or 10 miles west of Harrisonburg, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wallace Ridge and Manifest around 700 PM CDT.
  Jonesville and Harrisonburg around 705 PM CDT.
  Wildsville around 710 PM CDT.
  Frogmore around 725 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 9201 3177 9158 3151 9170 3161 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 282DEG 26KT 3172 9199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
706 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ESE Foote             33.07N 90.96W
05/20/2025                   Washington         MS   Law Enforcement

            Tree down along Hwy 436 at Beargarden Rd.

&&

CE